1. The Changing Face of the Polish-Born Population in the UK * Stephen Drinkwater John Eade Michal Garapich CRONEM University of Surrey Conference on Polish Migration Polish Embassy, London 17 th May 2006 * Funding from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged

2. Background Data sources used to track demographic change – Census of the Population – Labour Force Survey – Worker Registration Scheme Possible implications of (recent) migration flows Outline

3. Sword (1996) and Janowski (2006) discuss Polish migration to the UK during the 20 th Century A number of distinct phases can be identified: – During WWII and immediately afterwards => migration of Polish soldiers (mainly male) – Fairly small inflows 1950-1990 => mainly females (who came to join or marry Polish men in the UK) but also political refugees in the 1960s and 1980s – Increased flows in the 1990s after the fall of Communism (but also some return migration) and in the early 2000s because of policy changes (e.g. self-employed) and through illegal means – Huge influx following EU enlargement in May 2004 These trends can be seen in various data sources e.g. the Census, Labour Force Survey and Workers’ Registration Scheme Background

4. Official decennial register of all UK residents  shows a steady decline of the Polish-born up to 2001 Population Census Sources: Sword (1996), Census of Population

5. Changes in how Census returns are published also enables a more detailed analysis of the characteristics of the UK’s Polish-born population (pre-enlargement)  Release of aggregate data on age categories in 2001 for small spatial areas (LA level) by sex – age data by country of birth was also available in 1971  Release of Census microdata - the Samples of Anonymised Records (SARs/CAMs) - which contains information on virtually all questions asked in the Census for a sample of the population – 2% in 1991 and 3% in 2001 Main problem with Census data is under-enumeration (of undocumented/illegal migrants) Census (Continued)

6. Age and Gender Source: Census of Population The 2001 Census indicated an ageing population, especially amongst Polish males in the UK Age and Gender Composition of the UK's Polish Born Population: 2001

7. More detailed analysis of age Can use the SARs to rank country of origin by age => Polish migrants were by far the oldest in 1991

8. Age (Continued) Not much change 1991-2001, the median age is even slightly higher  But some variation across the UK => youngest live in London (has attracted more recent migrants) Notes: Median values in parentheses. 1991 data excludes Northern Ireland. Sources: 1991 SARs and 2001 CAMs Average Age of the UK's Polish-Born Population: 1991 and 2001

9. Other demographic & labour market characteristics Not great changes either between 1991 and 2001 – similar for migrants from other A8 countries Demographic characteristics of Poles and other A8 migrants in the UK: 1991 and 2001 Notes: 1991 data excludes Northern Ireland. Other A8 in 1991 also includes Albania, Romania and other Yugoslavia and excludes the Baltic entrants. Sources: 1991 SARs and 2001 CAMs

10. Workers’ Registration Scheme (WRS) A (government) register of individuals from A8 countries working in the UK who arrived after May 2004 – but also includes some who came earlier Useful since it contains some of the characteristics of the registrants –but there are methodological problems with the data such as individuals registering on multiple occasions (after changing jobs) or not at all –also the published data doesn’t contain information for Poles specifically (apart from industrial sector) It suggests that over 300,000 A8 migrants entered the UK between May 2004 and December 2005 – almost 60% of whom were Poles

11. Characteristics of workers in the WRS, May 2004-December 2005 Age and Gender: Mostly male (57%) and young ( 44% aged 18-24; 39% aged 25-34) Region: Much less likely than previous cohorts to reside in London (only 15%; compared to 16% in Anglia, 12% in Midlands, 10% in Central etc) Industrial sector: 32% (33%) in admin., bus. & mgmt, 22% (23%) in hospitality & catering, 12% (11%) in agriculture & 8% (8%) in manufacturing Note: Emboldened figures in parentheses are for Poles only

12. Labour Force Survey (LFS) Quarterly survey of around 60,000 UK households  Much smaller sample than the SARs => less precise, especially for subgroups and at the regional/sub- regional level  But provides much more recent information => can see how the socio-economic characteristics of the Polish-born have changed following enlargement  Also includes year of arrival in the UK and a wider range of labour market variables e.g. earnings

13. Time of arrival and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2002-3 Source: LFS

14. Time of arrival and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2004-5 Source: LFS

15. Demographic & labour market characteristics of Polish and other A8 migrants in the UK: 2002-5 Source: LFS Figures for pre-2000 migrants are similar to the 2001 CAMs but quite different from those arriving afterwards (who are generally very alike those from other A8 countries) –but based on small samples

16. Possible economic and social implications Brain drain => migration of young and more qualified individuals might have a detrimental impact on the Polish economy –but the recent economics literature suggests that this need not necessarily be the case (see Commander et al., 2004 for a summary) Remittances => can be very beneficial to sending countries (if used productively) –Caselli and Tenreyro (2005) argue that massive investment is needed to restructure the Polish economy Effects on identity/ethnicity and perceptions of class => I’ll leave this to Michal and John