1. 4 th International Evidence Based Policing Conference Burglary Solvability Factors Gerry Donnellan

2. Background Felony Investigation Decision Model – Bernard Greenberg Burglary Investigation Decision Model – John Eck Coupe and Griffiths, ‘Detecting Residential Burglary’, 1996

3. Burglary Investigation Decision Model 6 variables –Witness present –Discovered by police –Usable fingerprints –Suspect information –Vehicle description –Response time 12,000 cases 85% accuracy Limitations

4. Aim of Research Evaluate the reliability of the solvability factors Identify the most productive variables Understand the distribution of the variables Identify additional variables

5. Methodology 400 random cases – 200 detected 77 violent cases – 20 detected 6 Eck variables 48 additional variables

6. Findings 323 offenders in the detected cases 35% of cases had multiple offenders Significant differences between detected and undetected burglaries Significant difference presence of DNA between suspect named and suspect described the presence of CCTV delay in reporting 61% detected cases attended within one hour Value of property

7. Eck variables for detected and undetected burglaries VariableDetectedUndetectedP Witness present87 (43.5%) 32 (16%) <.01 Discovered by Police 5 (2.5%) 0 (0%) <.05 Usable fingerprints 90 (45%) 42 (21%) <.01 Suspect developed89 (44.5%) 38 (19%) <.01 Vehicle involved5 (2.5%) 30 (15%) <.01 Response time1hr 38 mins3 hours 07 mins<.05

8. Additional Variables VariableDetected Suspect described38% Suspect admits33.8% DNA22.45% Suspect named14.5% CCTV9.2% No. of previous arrests20

9. Revised Model VariableFrequency (%) Fingerprints45 Witness present43.5 Suspect described38 DNA22.45 Suspect named14.5 CCTV9.2 Response time<1 hour

10. Summary Arrive promptly Effective primary investigation Maximise secondary investigation Maximise forensic opportunities Community intelligence More research

11. Thank You