1. Big or small in an enlarged Union: Does it really matter? Guillaume Durand – European Policy Centre – Brussels European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net Facing the European elections Hungarian Europe Society – Budapest – 4 June 2004

2. The European Policy Centre A leading think tank based in Brussels, committed to promoting European integration More than 360 member organisations, representing a wide range of constituencies A wide range of a activities, including events and policy analysis Nine Integrated Work Programmes: Growth and Jobs; Economic Governance; Better Regulation; Global Governance; European Foreign and Security Policy; EU-Asia; Neighbourhood Europe; Multicultural Europe; Political Europe European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net

3. Nothing new: The subtle initial balance The impact of successive enlargements The extension of qualified majority voting The ‘big enlargement’ and the ‘Gulliver syndrome’ (Magnette / Nicolaïdis) The issue that tore the Convention apart European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net Big v. Small – Origins of the debate

4. All sovereign states? (Yes, but…) All gaining in pooling sovereignty? (Yes, but…) All benefiting from the Community method? (Yes!) All equal in the Union? Yes and no: Equal treatment of states The equality of citizens, a democratic principle European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net Big and Small: True and false differences

5. Historically: no ‘equality of Member States’ Two (equally unlikely) ideal solutions: A small College Freedom for the President Two solutions with significant dangers: Rotation (complexity) One Commissioner per country (Coreper III?) ⇛ In any case: Nationals of smaller MS overrepresented European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net The debate on the Commission

6. Historically: negotiated, not ‘objective’, weights The (many) problems with Nice The ability to block: Ultimate measure of power? Simplifying the rules – but how? The Convention’s elegant solution Last-minute tinkering: Preserving national interests or crippling the system? European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net Weighting votes in the Council

7. Historically: Regressive proportionality However: The demographic factor dominates National and party lines in the Parliament The role of MEPs: Defending whose interest? Digression: The national interest in a democratic society Working hard: The best way to have some real influence in the Parliament ⇛ In any case: Citizens of smaller MS overrepresented European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net And what about the Parliament?

8. A simplistic explanation Just as well: A good economic decision / Bad rules No cost for the bullies? The proof that ‘Poland and Spain were right’? Small is beautiful? (Fitoussi) The fundamental asymmetry of EMU’s governance Rebalancing the system: A difficult exercise ⇛ In any case: Only small MS can enjoy a free- ride… European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net The Stability and Growth Pact: The return of power politics?

9. Clearly not: More to gain in economic and political terms Overall: (Very) well represented in all institutions Any assessment to look at real sovereignty The dangers of a ‘directoire’: Inside and outside Building a transnational (Ferry: post-national) democracy ⇨ As the EP campaign shows: A very slow process European Policy Centre – www.TheEPC.net Do smaller Member States fare so badly in the EU?