1. Venue Specific Weather Forecast and Information System for October 3-14, 2010, New Delhi, India A Proposal National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Dept. of Science & Technology

2. Some Historical Facts The initiative of a Canadian, M M Robinson, led to the first official Commonwealth Games in 1930 at Hamilton. Since then, the Commonwealth Games (CWG) are being organized regularly at an interval of 4 years. Beginning from 1930, there have been so far 17 such events. The 18th CWG is being held in Melbourne, Australia during 15-26 March,2006. The 19 th Commonwealth Games will be held during 3-14 October,2010 in New Delhi.

3. 3-14 October, 2010, New Delhi, India The CWG is the biggest international event in the recent past of the city of Delhi. Seventy One (71) countries will be participating. The opening and closing ceremony is slated to be at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium on Oct 03 and Oct 14 respectively. The details of venues for various sport events are yet to be decided.

4. Proposal for Setting up of Venue Specific Weather Forecast and Information System Why do we need this? How can we do it? What are the requirements? What are the opportunities? What is the benefit to the Nation? 3-14 October, 2010, New Delhi, India

5. Why do we need such a forecast? The comfort and safety of spectators -- information and warnings for specific venue sites about 1. humidity 2. heat/human discomfort index warnings /day-night temperature forecast 3. lightning /thunderstorm 4. rain, water logging Warnings for event rescheduling for the organizers or even cancellations 1. Winds must be < 20 mph winds for high platform diving 2. Humidity and dew formation at velodrome cancels cycling 3. Strong wind changes, unfair advantage to some athletes 4. Rainout of events Use of weather conditions by athletes to their advantage 1. Marathon (conserving energy) -- consider heat index 2. Sailing, Archery, Shooting, etc (using information about winds) Improved security : Routing and evacuation planning. 3-14 October, 2010, New Delhi, India

6. Weather forecast for Major Sport events in the past a. NWS Forecast for Atlanta Olympics 1996 b. UKMO forecast for Manchester Commonwealth Games-2002

7. Setting up of Venue Specific Weather Forecast and Information System for COMMONWEALTH GAMES-2010 October 3-14, 2010, New Delhi, India Outline of the Proposal

8. NCMRWF in collaboration with IMD for real time operational weather forecasting. NCMRWF and IMD to work closely with Research Organizations / Institutions in India and abroad for development and implementation of the system The speedy and efficient implementation of the project requires a close Public-Private partnership (Similar to IBM-NWS partnership for Atlanta Olympics) Implementing and Coordinating Agencies

9. Real time implementation of an ensemble of high resolution (10-20 km) global models Operational running of a set of Non-hydrostatic 1 km weather models for NCR region Statistical and dynamical downscaling of model products Software for visualization and product display Science Plan Models & Other Softwares

10. A dense network of Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) in an area of 100 km in and around Delhi. Each AWS should have capability of online observation and data transmission through satellite based communication system. C/S band Doppler Radars within an area of 500 km for observations of cloud echoes/winds and for tracking of weather systems. The Doppler radars are required to be integrated with data assimilation system for forecast models and with Visualization system for online display. Mobile Wind Profilers / Doppler radars for upper air wind observations. The data from these, will be utilized for meso-scale data assimilation for generating model analysis. INSAT observations on upper air winds, cloud imageries, etc. Science Plan Observational Network

11. High-end computing systems capable of handing real time operations of data assimilation, forecast generations by models and running other softwares. Visualization and product display systems A weather proof Network and communication system, preferably satellite based for real time data transfer. A large bandwidth will be required for near real time transmission of high density data Science Plan Other Hardwares

12. Each venue will have an exclusive WEATHER INFORMATION BOOTH where athletes, authorities or spectators can visit to get weather forecast of their requirement. Official TV channel of Commonwealth Games will continuously display the weather information on TV screen throughout the period. Science Plan Product Generation and Dissemination

13. An exclusive Web Site will be set up about an year in advance for providing free weather forecast and information. The web site will be linked to official web site of Commonwealth Games-2010. Weather information will be provided to users through mobile service providers. Science Plan Weather Information through Mobile and Internet

14. Such a system is being first time attempted for a tropical location like Delhi at very high resolution. Effort requires quantum leap in resources. October being a transition month, forecast accuracy may be severely affected. Present network of observations not adequate. Shortage of skilled manpower in Operational agencies (NCMRWF/IMD) to handle advanced technology. Major Challenges and Constraints

15. Upcoming Models- OMEGA Model (upto 1 km resolution)*, WRF/ HWRF models (upto 2 km resolution) Visualization and Dissemination Technology - ARCGIS 9# IMD’s Modernization Plan- Advanced High density observational network (surface, upper air, Doppler radars, wind profilers, etc) High end computing systems in NCMRWF [CRAY X1E, IBM systems] (to meet near future computing requirement of NCMRWF for running global/ meso-scale models in real time) Launch of New Satellites: INSAT-3D/ Megha Tropiques * Recent discussion with Prof David Bacon GMU, USA # Being implemented in Andhra Pradesh for Cyclone Hazard Mapping Project Implementation Strategy New Opportunities in near future

16. OMEGA Accesses High Resolution Databases and Automatically Generates the Grid Implementation Strategy OMEGA Model

17. T0-T24 Months: a. Model and other Software Development b. Deployment of Observational Network, visualization and communication systems c. Training of Personnel T24-T36 Months a. Testing and Implementation of entire system b. Real Time Demonstration C. Validation of Forecast T36-T48 Months An Integrated Weather Forecast Information System is ready for real time use for CWG-2010. Proposed Time Schedule (55 months to go from now) Implementation Strategy

18. The project can be a great showcasing of strength of India’s weather service agencies This will eventually help the country establishing a high resolution location specific weather forecast system which can be used for predicting high impact weather events at any location in the country- Forecast system for Mega Cities. The forecast effort for CWG-2010 may be a turning point for the weather forecasting service in the Country... there had been tremendous advancement of weather forecasting in US since Atlanta Olympics 1996. Benefits to the Nation