1. Final Project I. Calibration II.Drawdown Prediction III.Particle Tracking IV.Presentation of Results

2. Schedule Week of April 14: No lectures. Work on Parts I & II of Final Project April 22, 24: Particle tracking and Profile Models (PS6). Work on Part III of Final Project. April 24: 30 min in-class, closed book quiz. April 28, May 1: Group presentations of final project. May 6, May 8: Grid design/parameter selection & final thoughts. PS6 due on May 6.

3. Calibration & Sensitivity Analysis

4. Calibration Targets calibration value associated error 20.24 m  0.80 m Target with relatively large associated error. Target with smaller associated error.

5. Examples of Sources of Error Surveying errors Errors in measuring water levels Interpolation error Transient effects Scaling effects Unaccounted heterogeneities

6. Calibration parameters are uncertain parameters whose values are adjusted during model calibration. Typical calibration parameters include hydraulic conductivity and recharge rate.

7. Sensitivity analysis is used: In automated calibration (inverse modeling) (Sensitivity coefficients =  sum of squared residuals/  parameter or  h/  parameter) As an uncertainty analysis after calibration

8. Automated calibration using inverse modeling Codes MODFLOWP – used in MODFLOW2000 GV Calibration PEST UCODE Available in GWV

9. x y ocean 2L L Island Recharge Problem- Forward Problem well Parameters known with certainty: R= 0.00305 ft/d K= 100 ft/day Solve for head

10. x y ocean 2L L Island Recharge Problem – Inverse Problem Head in well = 120 feet well Uncertain parameters R= 0.00305 ft/d K= 100 ft/day