1. NWS Alaska Region: Challenges in an Era of Changing Climate PRIDE Alaska Coastal Wind/Wave Climatology Workshop August 2-4, 2005 James Partain, Chief Environmental & Scientific Services Division NOAA NWS Alaska Region

2. 2 NOAA NWS Alaska Region - Overview 3 full-service Weather Forecast Offices 12 limited-service Weather Service Offices River Forecast Center Tsunami Warning Center 2 Aviation weather centers

3. NOAA NWS Alaska Region - Facilities

4. 4 Climate Impacts on Service Programs in NWS Alaska Region Aviation – more frequent icing, IMC conditions; aviators in bush still operating on old assumptions Public - more frequent “high amplitude” weather episodes (e.g. mid-winter thaws, coastal storms, windstorms, heavy precip) Marine – more frequent high-impact events, esp. in areas of sea-ice retreat Wildfire - more variable regime-dependent fuel-moisture conditions

5. 5 Climate Impacts on Service Programs in NWS Alaska Region (cont) Hydrology – greater variability in river volume & depth and related flooding and erosion; ice-dammed glacier lake releases Volcanic Ash – resuspension of relic ash from Katmai complex in Sept. 2003 led to redefinition of volcanic ashfall “event” Tsunami – sea-level rise may have eventual impacts

6. 6 Example: Bering Sea Storm of Oct, 2004 Greatest short-term weather impacts of climate change are for coastal storms and attendant erosion –Later freeze-up, less extent and thinner sea-ice, combined with loss of coastal permafrost, is a recipe for erosion from normal Fall storms –Impacts magnified by greater wave size due to increased open-water fetch

7. 7 The Bering Sea Storm – Oct 18-20, 2004 Most important contributions from NWS are Accuracy and Lead Time The “bomb” of October 18-20, 2004, illustrates the potential of our contributions –An ex-tropical cyclone rapidly deepened over a period of several days to 940mb (hurricane intensity) –Such storms normally handled very poorly by the models, even in the short-term –In this case, atmospheric model had large-scale details, including amplification and track, predicted at 5-days lead time –More importantly, run-to-run consistency was key to forecaster confidence in forecast/warning issuances.

8. 8 The Bering Sea Storm – Oct 18-20, 2004 Lead-time from WFO Fairbanks with first service products was 3 days Emergency managers were in continuous contact with NWS offices Fairbanks, Nome and Kotzebue before, during and after the event NWS storm surge guidance also quite accurate and useful both to NWS staff and EMs Evacuations took place and physical mitigations were put in place for structure protection…no loss of life or significant injuries resulted.

9. 9 The Bering Sea Storm – Oct 18-20, 2004 Still…much erosion and property damage occurred –$30M damage in Nome alone –50+ feet of shoreline lost in Shishmaref…they will not survive another such storm This storm showed: –The value of accurate, consistent objective guidance in improving forecaster confidence in a developing storm –The value of lead time –The value of NWS information to emergency planners for disaster mitigation.

10. 10 Nome, AK – during the storm

11. 11 Nome, AK – Front Street

12. 12 A residence in Shishmaref – after the storm

13. 13 The Shishmaref school after the storm

14. A residence in Shishmaref – after the storm

15. The Shishmaref school after the storm