Presentation on theme: "The Decision-Making Process IT Brainpower"— Presentation transcript:
1 The Decision-Making Process IT Brainpower IntroductionDECISION SUPPORT AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Brainpower for Your BusinessTypes of DecisionsThe Decision-Making ProcessIT BrainpowerHow IT Brainpower Supports the Decision-Making Process
2 TYPES OF DECISIONS YOU FACE STRUCTURED DECISIONS - those with a set of steps that guarantee the correct solution.NONSTRUCTURED DECISIONS - those with no rules or criteria that guarantee a good solution.RECURRING DECISIONS - those you make repeatedly, often periodically.NONRECURRING DECISIONS - those you make infrequently, perhaps only once.
3 PHASES OF THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS 1. INTELLIGENCE -Find what to fix2. DESIGN - Find fixes3. CHOICE - Pick a fix4. IMPLEMENTATION - Apply the fix
4 TYPES OF IT BRAINPOWER Decision Support Systems (DSS) Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS)Geographic Information Systems (GIS)Artificial Intelligence Systems (AI)Expert SystemsNeural NetworksGenetic AlgorithmsIntelligent Agents
5 A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS) is a highly flexible and interactive IT system that is designed to support decision making when the problem is not structured.A DSS assists you in making a decision, as opposed to making the decision for you.
6 A DSS Can Help With Analysis Tasks Like Deciding where to spend advertising dollarsAnalyzing sales trend informationAnalyzing drug interactionsDeveloping airline schedulesPricing products
7 A DSS Has Three Components DATA MANAGEMENT - to allow you to store and access information.MODEL MANAGEMENT - to allow you to store and access models.USER INTERFACE MANAGEMENT - to allow you to easily manipulate information and models.
8 STEPS IN DEVELOPING A DSS 5-11DSSSTEPS IN DEVELOPING A DSS1.INTELLIGENCEDo you need a DSS?What should it do?What does it need?2.DESIGNWhat can you buy/build?3.CHOICEWhat will you buy/build?4.IMPLEMENTATIONBuild or install DSSLearn, test, and evaluate the DSS
9 A GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (GDSS) is a type of decision support system that facilitates the formulation of and solution to problems by a team.A GDSS helps a team to generate ideas, identify strengths and weaknesses, choose an alternative, and reach a consensus.
10 A GDSS Can Help With Team Tasks Like Determining new product designEvaluating the impact of new competitionFormulating a strategic plan
11 THE STEPS OF GROUP DECISION MAKING GDSSTHE STEPS OF GROUP DECISION MAKING1.Brainstorming - generate ideas2.Issue Categorization and Analysis - classify ideas3.Ranking and Voting - prioritize alternatives, reach consensusSee Figure 5.9, page 174
12 PEOPLE IN A GDSS Team: People united by a common goal GDSS facilitator has two rolesNontechnical: run the meetingTechnical: operate IT components
13 IT TOOLS IN A GDSS Groupware - software than enables team work DSS Capabilities - software that enables team decision makingTelecommunications - hardware and software that connect computers
14 A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) GDSSA GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS)is a decision support system designed specifically to work with spatial information.A GIS represents information thematically in overlapping layers, each of which shows a different aspect of the total picture.
15 A GIS Can Help With Spatial Analysis Tasks Like GDSSA GIS Can Help With Spatial Analysis Tasks LikeIdentifying the best site to locate a branch officeTargeting pockets of potential customersRepositioning promotions and advertising
16 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) is the science of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior.AI helps machines perform tasks that require complex and varying sets of steps such as retrieving debris from the ocean floor.
17 TYPES OF AI USED IN BUSINESS EXPERT SYSTEMSNEURAL NETWORKSGENETIC ALGORITHMSINTELLIGENT AGENTS70% of the top 500 companies use AI as part of decision support.
18 Expert SystemAN EXPERT SYSTEMis an artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion.An expert system captures expertise from a human expert and applies it to a problem.Auditing and tax planningDiagnosing illnessesManaging forest resources
19 WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN DO Provide consistency in decision makingProvide new informationReduce costsHandle massive amounts of informationReduce errorsImprove customer service
20 WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN’T DO Handle all types of domain expertiseSolve problems other than those for which they are designedApply common sense or judgment to a problem
21 Neural NetworkA NEURAL NETWORKis an artificial intelligence system which is capable of learning because it’s patterned after the human brain.A neural network simulates the human ability to classify things based on the experience of seeing many examples.
22 A Neural Network Can Perform Pattern Recognition Tasks Like Distinguishing different chemical compoundsDetecting anomalies in human tissue that may signify diseaseReading handwritingDetecting fraud in credit card use
23 Genetic AlgorithmA GENETIC ALGORITHMis an artificial intelligence system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest processes to generate increasingly better solutions to a problem.Genetic algorithms produce several generations of solutions, choosing the best of the current set for each new generation.
24 A Genetic Algorithm Can Generate Lots of Solutions As In Generating human faces based on a few known features.Generating solutions to routing problems.Generating stock portfolios.
25 Intelligent AgentAN INTELLIGENT AGENTis an artificial intelligence system that can move around your computer or network performing repetitive tasks independently, adapting itself to your preferences.An intelligent agent is like a travel agent in that it performs tasks that you stipulate.
26 An Intelligent Agent Can Perform Tasks Like Acting as a personal electronic assistant to collect, send, and prioritize electronic information such as .Finding and retrieving information from a database.Finding and retrieving information across networks.
27 How Does an Intelligent Agent Do That? An intelligent agent (usually) combines the capabilities of two or more of the most modern software technologies such as expert systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms, object-oriented programming, and so on.
28 AIStarting InformationExpert’s know-howAcceptable patternsSet of possible solutionsYour preferencesAI SystemExpert SystemsNeural NetworksGenetic AlgorithmsIntelligent AgentsProblem TypeDiagnostic or prescriptiveIdentification, classification, predictionOptimal solutionSpecific and repetitive tasksBased OnStrategies of expertsThe human brainBiological evolutionOne or more AI techniques
29 AI SYSTEMS CAN BE COMBINED WITH DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS IT BrainpowerAI SYSTEMS CAN BE COMBINED WITH DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDSSs can incorporate one or more expert systems creating an intelligent DSS, a DSS/ES, or a knowledge-based DSS.Neural networks can be combined with GISs to apply pattern recognition capabilities to spatial information.
30 A HYBRID INTELLIGENT SYSTEM IT BrainpowerA HYBRID INTELLIGENT SYSTEMis an IT system which combines two or more artificial intelligence systems.Neural networks and expert systems can be combined to create a “trainable” expert system.Neural networks and genetic algorithms can be combined to train neural networks.