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Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Stocks and Bonds Securities offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer, 1300 S. Clinton.

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Presentation on theme: "Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Stocks and Bonds Securities offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer, 1300 S. Clinton."— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Stocks and Bonds Securities offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer, 1300 S. Clinton Street, Fort Wayne, IN 46802-3506, Phone 800-454-6265. Insurance offered through Lincoln affiliates and other fine companies. Lincoln Financial Group is the marketing name for Lincoln National Corporation and its affiliates. CRN200510-1003363

2 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at year-end 1925. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. Stock market performance Year-end 1925–2004 $2,533 10.4% Large company stocks $.10 $1 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 Average return Ending wealth $10 192519351945195519651975198519952004 12.7% $12,968 Small company stocks

3 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. 60% 100% 1926–2004 Annual small stock excess return -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 19261934194219501958196619741982199019982004 80%

4 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Stock diversification 124681630501001000 Number of stocks in portfolio Risk Market risk Company risk

5 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Periods with gain 100% 65 fifteen-year periods Risk of stock market loss over time 1926–2004 75 five-year periods Periods with loss 13% Periods with gain 87% Periods with gain 71% 29% 79 one-year periods Periods with loss

6 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Annualized returns of an equally weighted portfolio of top 10 stocks by 3-year return and return in subsequent 3-year period (excluding the smallest 20% of the market). Top ten performing stocks 1985–2004 Annualized return Average returns First 3 years Do stock winners repeat? 151.0% Subsequent 3 years 3.3% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 1985199019952000

7 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. 19981990199119921993199419951996199719992000200120022004 Internat’l stocks Large stocks LT gov’t bonds Large stocks LT gov’t bonds Large stocks LT gov’t bonds Large stocks LT gov’t bonds LT gov’t bonds Internat’l stocks LT gov’t bonds Large stocks Internat’l stocks Large stocks Internat’l stocks LT gov’t bonds 30 day T-bills 30 day T-bills 30 day T-bills 30 day T-bills 30 day T-bills 30 day T-bills LT gov’t bonds Internat’l stocks Small stocks Small stocks Small stocks Small stocks Small stocks Small stocks LT gov’t bonds Small stocks 2003 Small stocks LT gov’t bonds Internat’l stocks Internat’l stocks 30 day T-bills LT gov’t bonds Small stocks Internat’l stocks Small stocks Large stocks LT gov’t bonds Internat’l stocks 30 day T-bills LT gov’t bonds Small stocks Internat’l stocks Highest Return Lowest Return Asset class winners and losers Large stocks Small stocks 30 day T-bills Large stocks Internat’l stocks Internat’l stocks

8 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Benefits of bonds in a portfolio  Potential growth  Historically lower risk  Diversification benefits  Income generation  Expand efficient opportunities

9 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Average return Ending wealth 3.7%$17.87 Bond market performance Year-end 1925–2004 Hypothetical value of $1 invested at year-end 1925. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. $.10 $1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 1925193519451955196519751985 Treasury bills 1995 4.4%$29.24 Municipal bonds Government bonds 5.4%$65.72 5.9%$94.40 Corporate bonds 2004 10.4%$2,553 Stocks

10 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Bond yields (%) Bond prices ($) When yields increase, bond prices decrease Relationship between bond prices and yields 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 19251935194519551965197519851995 $0 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 2004

11 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Based on annual data over the period 1970–2004. 5% 15% 80% Bonds 71% 27% 2% Stocks Bonds produced greater income Capital appreciation Income Reinvestment of income 1970–2004

12 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. 1970–2004 Risk is measured by standard deviation. Risk and return are based on annual data over the period 1970–2004. Portfolios presented are based on modern portfolio theory. Return Risk 10.7% 12.1% Original portfolio Stocks 54% Bonds 41% Cash 5% Return Risk 10.7% 10.2% Lower risk portfolio Stocks 70% Cash 30% Using bonds to diversify

13 This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2005 Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Risk is measured by standard deviation. Risk and return are based on annual data over the period 1970–2004. Portfolios presented are based on modern portfolio theory. 1970–2004 Bonds expand efficient opportunities Return Risk Stock portfolios Large company stocks Small company stocks 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 5%7%9%11%13%15%17%19%21%23%25% Stock and bond portfolios Bonds


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