1. An Overview of UrbanSim Center for Urban Simulation and Policy Analysis University of Washington www.urbansim.org

2. Results of Needs Assessment (in order) 1. Analyze Effects of Land Use on Transportation 2. Analyze Multimodal Assignments 3. Promote Common Use of Data 4. Manage Data Needs 5. Analyze All Modes of Travel 6. Analyze Effects of Land Use Policies 7. Support Visualization Techniques 8. Analyze Effects of Transportation Pricing Policies 9. Analyze Effects of Growth Management Policies 10. Analyze Effects of Transportation on Land Use

3. Recommendations for New Model Design (made in 2001) Model real estate, labor and transportation demand and supply market interactions in an integrated microsimulation framework.  Eliminate artificial separation of household choices Represent processes at appropriate temporal and spatial detail  Real estate and labor markets: annual, parcel  Activity and travel: mid-term model effort: 5 daily periods, parcel / long- term: continuous time Integrate and extend recent advances in operational models  Disaggregate land use models (Eugene, Honolulu, Salt Lake City)  Activity based travel models (San Francisco, Portland) Implement as a distributed model system  for use by PSRC, cities and counties, state agencies, public  with a web-based user-interface Implementation plan balancing needs, costs, schedule, and risks

4. Linked Urban Markets GovernmentsInfrastructure Land FloorspaceHousing HouseholdsBusinessesLabor Services Developers Flow of consumption from supplier to consumer Regulation or Pricing

5. Land Use Regulation Land use plans Growth management Transportation Infrastructure Pricing Long-term Choices Residential Mobility Housing Choice Labor Supply Workplace Choice Vehicle Ownership Short-term Choices Activity Generation Activity Scheduling Allocation of Vehicles Activity Location Long-term Choices Mobility Location Choice Labor Demand Short-term Choices Goods movement Economic Processes Economic structure Output goods/services Inter-regional trade Demographic Processes Ageing Household structure Migration Real Estate Processes Land development Housing development Non-res development Redevelopment HouseholdsBusinesses Developers Governments Long-term Modeling Strategy: Integrated Model of Markets for Real Estate, Labor and Transportation

6. An Illustration of the Approach Consider a major decrease in transport costs In reality, a household could substitute among any combination of interdependent changes:  Change travel routes, modes, times to take advantage  Make more trips  Make longer trips to other destinations  Move residence to buy more space or amenities farther out  Change jobs or enter job market  Add a household vehicle The proposed model would recognize these as interdependent choices, whereas current models would not

7. Phased Model Improvements: 2002-5 Implement Land Use Model based on UrbanSim (current specification)  Phase I: Develop database  Phase II: Estimate model paramaters  Phase III: Test and validate model system Integrate with current PSRC models:  STEP macroeconomic model  Travel model system

8. UrbanSim Design Objectives Support coordinated land use, transportation, and environmental planning and modeling Use a transparent behavioral framework Represent interactions of markets and policies Represent sufficient detail to support:  Municipal applications; corridor studies  Non-motorized transport policies and TOD  Environmental and land use policies Support trade-off analysis among objectives  Efficiency  Equity  Environmental Impact Develop an Open Source modeling platform

9. UrbanSim Model Design Discrete Choice Framework  Household Relocation and Location Choice  Business Relocation and Location Choice  Real Estate Development  Explicit Markets for Real Estate Governmental policies exogenous: scenarios Dynamic  Path-dependent (history matters)  Supply fixed in short run (one year)  Adjustment toward equilibrium in long-run  Annual time steps

10. How is UrbanSim Different? Dynamic, non-equilibrium approach Spatial detail very high Behavioral approach empirically measures responses to policies Focuses visioning on goals and objectives Links visioning to planning and evaluation

13. Job JOB_ID GRID_ID SECTOR_ID HOME_BASED SIC Grid Cell GRID_ID COMMERCIAL_SQFT GOVERNMENTAL_SQFT INDUSTRIAL_SQFT COMMERCIAL_IMPROVEMENT_VALUE INDUSTRIAL_IMPROVEMENT_VALUE GOVERNMENTAL_IMPROVEMENT_VALUE NONRESIDENTIAL_LAND_VALUE RESIDENTIAL_LAND_VALUE RESIDENTIAL_IMPROVEMENT_VALUE RESIDENTIAL_UNITS YEAR_BUILT FRACTION_RESIDENTIAL_LAND PERCENT_UNDEVELOPABLE TOTAL_NONRES_SQFT DEVELOPMENT_TYPE_ID DISTANCE_TO_ARTERIAL DISTANCE_TO_HIGHWAY RELATIVE_X RELATIVE_Y PLAN_TYPE_ID PERCENT_WATER PERCENT_WETLAND PERCENT_STREAM_BUFFER PERCENT_FLOODPLAIN PERCENT_SLOPE PERCENT_OPEN_SPACE PERCENT_PUBLIC_SPACE PERCENT_ROADS IS_OUTSIDE_URBAN_ GROWTH_BOUNDARY IS_INSIDE_NATIONAL_FOREST IS_INSIDE_TRIBAL_LAND IS_INSIDE_MILITARY_BASE ZONE_ID CITY_ID COUNTY_ID PERCENT_AGRICULTURAL_ PROTECTED_LANDS ACRES Household HOUSEHOLD_ID GRID_ID PERSONS WORKERS AGE_OF_HEAD INCOME CHILDREN RACE_ID CARS

14. Key Model Components Household and Employment Location  Standard multinomial logit  Grid cell is unit of choice Real Estate Development  Multinomial logit  24 development type outcomes Real Estate Price Estimation  Hedonic regression

15. Data Inputs Regional Control Totals Parcel Data Business Establishments Household Data (Census, Travel Survey) Land Use Plan/Zoning Environmental Features Public Land ownership

19. Residential Location Variables Housing Characteristics  Prices (interacted with income)  Development types (density, land use mix)  Housing age Regional accessibility  Job accessibility by auto-ownership group  Travel time to CBD and airport Urban design-scale (local accessibility)  Neighborhood land use mix and density  Neighborhood employment

20. Employment Location Variables Real Estate Characteristics  Prices  Development type (land use mix, density) Regional accessibility  Access to population  Travel time to CBD, airport Urban design-scale  Proximity to highway, arterials  Local agglomeration economies within & between sectors: center formation

21. Development Variables Site characteristics  Existing development characteristics  Land use plan  Environmental constraints Urban design-scale  Proximity to highway and arterials  Proximity to existing development  Neighborhood land use mix and property values  Recent development in neighborhood Regional  Access to population and employment  Travel time to CBD, airport

22. Land Price Variables Site characteristics  Development type  Land use plan  Environmental constraints Regional accessibility  Access to population and employment Urban design-scale  Land use mix and density  Proximity to highways and arterials

23. UrbanSim – Travel Model Interactions UrbanSimTravel Models Households by Income Age of head Size Workers Children Employment by sector Composite Utility by Auto Ownership Highway Travel Times Vehicle Ownership Probabilities

24. Creating Policy Scenarios Macroeconomic Assumptions  Household and employment control totals Development constraints  Can select any combination of Political and planning overlays Environmental overlays Land use plan designation  Constraints determine which development types cannot be built Transportation infrastructure User-specified events

25. Puget Sound Regional Council 4 Counties 72 Cities 3 Ports WS Dept of Transp WS Transp Comm also: 6 transit agencies 6 Associate Members 2 adjacent counties 2 tribes 1 port Evans School of Public Affairs, UW Seattle Everett Bremerton Tacoma Bellevue SNOHOMISH KING PIERCE KITSAP

26. Population: 3,275,847 Area: 6,287.8 sq mi Seattle Everett Bremerton Tacoma Bellevue SNOHOMISH KING PIERCE KITSAP Puget Sound Regional Council

27. Population: 3,275,847 Area: 6,287.8 sq mi Urban Growth Area Population: 2,804,125 Area: 980.1 sq mi Seattle Everett Bremerton Tacoma Bellevue SNOHOMISH KING PIERCE KITSAP Puget Sound Regional Council

28. Major Steps in Data Preparation 1.Determine study area boundary 2.Generate grid over study area 3.Assemble and standardize parcel data 4.Impute missing data on parcels 5.Assemble employment data 6.Assign employment to parcels 7.Convert Parcel data to grid 8.Convert other GIS layers to grid 9.Assign Development Types 10.Synthesize household database 11.Diagnose data quality and make refinements 12.Document data and process