1. Brooks Range, AK Global measurements of atmospheric gases and aerosols Amazon Basin, 2008 -- 2009 Arctic Ocean measurements, 2009 -- 2011 Steven C. Wofsy and the Science Team of the BARCA Program and the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations Program

2. Global environmental changes—in the “natural” environment and the built environment— represent some of the most powerful forces that give rise to “extreme” or “sudden” events. This lecture discusses changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere – what we know about the past, and the present changes that are unfolding.

3. The temperature of the earth has increased by 0.8 C since 1920 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

4. The heavier temperature lines from 160,000 BP to present reflect more data points for this time period, not necessarily greater temperature variability. Climate and Atmospheric History of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, by Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis J. Delaygue G., Delmotte M. Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.M., Lorius C., Pépin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M., Nature, 3 June 1999. Paleoclimate data from Antarctic Ice Cores

5. Changes in atmospheric composition: “Greenhouse gases”, CO 2 Time from present 1000’s of years CO 2 change from the present, ppm

6. How are people changing the global environment?

7. Atmospheric methane Atmospheric Methane Concentration (parts per billion) 500 1000 1500 Atmospheric Methane Concentration 500 1000 1500 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 Time before present (Years) Time before present (Years)

8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC

9. Insert a news item showing that increasing numbers of the public think "Climate Change" is a hoax, or too uncertain to inform policy, etc.

10. Some questions about the global environment: Q1. How quickly is the earth warming, and what are the consequences ? (Not required to ask, and answer this question: perfect knowledge of how much warming might be attributed to human activities.) Q2. Is aridity (dryness; Precipitation – Evaporation) increasing in vulnerable places? Q3. What climate changes are ongoing in the Arctic; what is the response of sea level, and of “greenhouse” gases (CO 2, CH 4 )?  Examples of recent studies of the Arctic environment

11. Changes in Sea Level are linked to climate through the temperature of the ocean and the stranded ice on the continents

12. Rate of Ice volume change: All Greenland: -238 km 3 /yr South Greenland: -164 North Greenland: -65 73.25 0 N -238 km 3 /yr = 0.5 mm/yr sea level rise

13. 1979 2007 The Arctic Ocean has been covered by floating ice for all human history… …until What do these changes mean for climate, forests, crops? 1. Arctic

15. GV launch in the rain, Anchorage, January, 2009 (HIPPO-1) HIPPO platform: NCAR Gulfstream V "HIAPER"

16. 41+ kft 28 kft Flight Plan across the arctic ocean 60N to 82N, August 2011

17. Photos: S. Wofsy August, 2011

18. UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m T o C 74520 1467 75.04469 -161.5916 653.708 -4.736278 UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m T o C 74580 1469 75.11114 -161.5076 403.508 -3.894623 UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m T o C 74640 1473 75.17651 -161.4241 257.740 -3.14 UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m T o C 77280 1481 78.70973 -156.4544 3854.904 -25.08 Photos from 19 Aug 2011

20. Photos: S. Wofsy Mist rising from very warm water 200km in the ocean

21. CH 4 in the arctic atmosphere

22. GLOBAL METHANE SOURCES, Tg a -1 [IPCC, 2007] ANIMALS 80-90 LANDFILLS 40-70 GAS 50-70 COAL 30-50 RICE 30-110 TERMITES 20-30 WETLANDS 100-230 BIOMASS BURNING 10-90 Sink: oxidation by OH (lifetime of 10 years)

23. CH 4 HIPPO Methane is being produced in the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean, especially where the ice pack has broken up, and we see this new emission in the atmosphere.

24. Slide from: E. A. Kort Relationships between tracers with distinct sources: A tool for understanding large scale sources and sinks of GHGs.

25. 82N 15 April 2010 CO 2 78N 02 Nov. 2009 385 386 387 ppm 1880 1890 1900 CH 4 CH 4 :CO 2 =.0085

28. Photos: by; B. C. Daube & J. V. Pittman

29. Summary: The Arctic The data show: Dense pollution at both very high altitudes, and at low levels, in the Arctic. Sources of CH 4 in the Arctic from from the ocean surface, significant compared to fossil fuel extraction and land surface. Extensive loss of floating ice in the Arctic Ocean, and melting of glacial ice on Greenland. … and a lot more

30. Summary: Environmental Science and Engineering, Global Change element What people in this field are doing: Making measurements in the atmosphere, in the sea, on land, and in the ecosystems of land an sea. Creating databases that can be accessed widely, and constructing models to simulate natural systems. Analyzing and modeling these observations to address questions important to science, and to society. … and a lot more