1. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Propagation and Solar Issues Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA k9la@arrl.net http://k9la.us

2. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA

3. What We’ll Cover Update on Cycle 24 Update on Cycle 24 Another Maunder Minimum? Another Maunder Minimum? Hints for Working FT4TA Tromelin Hints for Working FT4TA Tromelin What Do the Numbers Mean? What Do the Numbers Mean? What Bands Are Good? When Are They Good? What Bands Are Good? When Are They Good?

4. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Cycle 24 Update We’re still in the second peak We’re still in the second peak Higher bands should be good this fall/winter Higher bands should be good this fall/winter Cycle 24 began in late 2008 Cycle 24 began in late 2008 First peak after 3½ years First peak after 3½ years Second peak after about 6 years – still in progress Second peak after about 6 years – still in progress

5. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Cycle 24 vs Cycle 23 Will Cycle 24 have a similar long descent to minimum?

6. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Speaking of Minimums... We were used to short minimums – about 2 years We were used to short minimums – about 2 years Then the minimum between Cycle 23 and 24 came along Then the minimum between Cycle 23 and 24 came along

7. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Length of Min vs Next Max The longer the minimum, the smaller the next cycle

8. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Recorded History Three periods of larger cycles Three periods of larger cycles Two periods of smaller cycles Two periods of smaller cycles It looks like we’re headed for a period of smaller cycles It looks like we’re headed for a period of smaller cycles

9. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA How Small? Another Maunder Minimum? Maunder min was a 70-year period of very few sunspots Maunder min was a 70-year period of very few sunspots 1645-1715 1645-1715 Cycle 1

10. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA MM Fueled By Mag Field Data July 2009 paper by W. Livingston and M. Penn July 2009 paper by W. Livingston and M. Penn Sunspots are visible when their magnetic field strength is > 1500 gauss Sunspots are visible when their magnetic field strength is > 1500 gauss Extrapolating the linear trend line says no sunspots will be visible by the end of the decade (2020) Extrapolating the linear trend line says no sunspots will be visible by the end of the decade (2020) Is this the signature of a Maunder Minimum? Is this the signature of a Maunder Minimum?

11. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Update Thru 2013 Magnetic field strength still decreasing Magnetic field strength still decreasing But it looks like it is starting to level off But it looks like it is starting to level off

12. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Update Thru September 2014 It sure looks like it’s leveled off It sure looks like it’s leveled off Suggests sunspots won’t disappear Suggests sunspots won’t disappear

13. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA MM Conclusion – For Now! It’s kind of looking like we’ll just see an extended period of smaller cycles It’s kind of looking like we’ll just see an extended period of smaller cycles Not a period of few or no sunspots Not a period of few or no sunspots We’re going into uncharted territory We’re going into uncharted territory The Sun will do whatever it wants!The Sun will do whatever it wants!

14. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA FT4TA Tromelin End of October thru early November 2014 End of October thru early November 2014 mid point is ~ Nov 5mid point is ~ Nov 5 They plan to concentrate on the higher-volume bands They plan to concentrate on the higher-volume bands Second priority is the low bands  Second priority is the low bands  Let’s look at propagation from the MSP area to Tromelin Let’s look at propagation from the MSP area to Tromelin

15. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Great Circle Paths from FT4TA FT4TA FT4TA antipode MSP great circle paths in 10 o increments

16. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA W6ELProp Map Pretty close to a high latitude path Pretty close to a high latitude path More sensitive to elevated K and A indicesMore sensitive to elevated K and A indices Short path (red) heading to the NE Short path (red) heading to the NE Long path (black) heading to the SW Long path (black) heading to the SW

17. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Predictions on the Higher Bands Black line is monthly median MUF Black line is monthly median MUF 50% of the days of the 1-month period centered on Nov 550% of the days of the 1-month period centered on Nov 5 Blue line is monthly median FOT Blue line is monthly median FOT 90% of the days90% of the days White = S8 White = S8 Yellow = S7 Yellow = S7 Green = S6 Green = S6 Red = S5 Red = S5 short path 20m – good opportunity from 2200-0300 UTC 17m, 15m, 12m – good opportunity from 1400-2200 UTC 10m – 50% probability from 1600-1900 UTC

18. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Predictions on the Higher Bands Long path openings are pretty much limited to around and after sunrise Long path openings are pretty much limited to around and after sunrise White = S5 White = S5 Yellow = S4 Yellow = S4 Green = S3 Green = S3 Red = S2 Red = S2 Best shots are Best shots are 20m: 13-15z20m: 13-15z 17m: 14-16z17m: 14-16z 15m: 14-16z15m: 14-16z long path

19. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA FT4TA on 160-Meters Know when the entire path is in darkness (referred to as common darkness) Know when the entire path is in darkness (referred to as common darkness) For stations in the MSP area For stations in the MSP area MSP sunset is around 2253 UTCMSP sunset is around 2253 UTC FT4TA sunrise is around 0148 UTCFT4TA sunrise is around 0148 UTC Approximately 3 hours of common darknessApproximately 3 hours of common darkness Watch especially around FT4TA sunrise Watch especially around FT4TA sunrise Up to a half hour before and a bit afterUp to a half hour before and a bit after All this also applies to 80-Meters, and to 40-Meters to a lesser extent All this also applies to 80-Meters, and to 40-Meters to a lesser extent

20. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Wedge of Daylight All of NA should be able to work FT4TA on 160-Meters (if someone is on at each end!) The terminator at FT4TA sunrise superimposed on the terminator at FT4TA sunset

21. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Headings to FT5ZM on 160m FT5ZM – 77 reports from topband operators FT5ZM – 77 reports from topband operators 49 true great circle paths, 28 other paths49 true great circle paths, 28 other paths black lines are great circle paths out of FT5ZM FT5ZM For FT4TA, start with short path, but always check other directions

22. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA What Do the Numbers Mean? image from www.qrz.com SFI is 10.7 cm solar flux Generally the higher the flux, the better the higher bands But the short-term correlation between daily SFI and daily MUF is poor SN is sunspot number Ditto above comments

23. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Numbers - continued K is 3-hr index Tells how disturbed the Earth’s magnetic field is Generally an elevated K index gives lower mid and high latitude MUFs An elevated K index may enhance low latitude MUFs 0-9, with 0 = quiet and 9 = extremely disturbed A is daily average of the eight 3-hour K indices 0-400, with 0= quiet and 400 = extremely disturbed

24. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Numbers - continued XRY is x-ray flux at 1-8 Angstroms (0.1-0.8 nm) B, C, M, X - B is least, X is most Higher letters indicate more adverse impact to D region 304A is flux from Sun at 304 Angstroms (30.4 nm) 26-34 nm ionizes greater than 50% of F2 region See SFI and SN comments Aur is auroral activity from NOAA satellite Roughly correlates to K index Lat is lowest geographic latitude impacted by auroral event

25. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Numbers - continued Bz is direction of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) +50 to -50, negative indicates south with disturbed conditions SW is solar wind speed in km/s Average is around 400 km/s Much higher values suggest CME or coronal hole PF is proton flux at geosynchronous altitude Values of 10 and higher suggest polar cap absorption (PCA) EF is electron flux at geosynchronous altitude Values less than 10 suggest disturbed magnetic field

26. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Numbers - continued MUF Bdr is the MUF over the Boulder ionosonde at the designated time assuming it’s the mid point of a 3000 km path EME deg is estimated Earth-Moon-Earth path attenuation in words Band prognosis Caveat emptor – subjective assessment Geomag Field is assessment of K index in words Sig Noise Lvl is estimated noise in S-units due to SW and K Could be masked by man-made and atmospheric noise CME (UTC) is estimated time when coronal mass ejection will hit

27. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA What Bands? When? 160m, 80m, 40m are driven by absorption 160m, 80m, 40m are driven by absorption These bands are best during night at solar minThese bands are best during night at solar min 15m, 12m, 10m are driven by MUF 15m, 12m, 10m are driven by MUF These bands are best in daylight at solar maxThese bands are best in daylight at solar max 30m, 20m, 17m are good throughout an entire solar cycle 30m, 20m, 17m are good throughout an entire solar cycle Can withstand more absorption than 160/80/40mCan withstand more absorption than 160/80/40m Don’t need as high a MUF as 15/12/10mDon’t need as high a MUF as 15/12/10m

28. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA What Bands? When? Right now during 2 nd peak of Cycle 24 Right now during 2 nd peak of Cycle 24 15m, 12m and 10m are best15m, 12m and 10m are best 30m, 20m and 17m are good30m, 20m and 17m are good 160m, 80m and 40m generally not considered good160m, 80m and 40m generally not considered good But you can still work lots of DX around solar max But you can still work lots of DX around solar max Fall/winter of 2015/2016 Fall/winter of 2015/2016 15m, 12m and 10m openings will decrease15m, 12m and 10m openings will decrease 30m, 20m and 17m will be the best bands30m, 20m and 17m will be the best bands 160m, 80m and 40m better160m, 80m and 40m better Fall 2016 and onward Fall 2016 and onward 15m, 12m and 10m will be mostly noise15m, 12m and 10m will be mostly noise 30m, 20m and 17m will still be good30m, 20m and 17m will still be good 160m, 80m and 40m will also be good160m, 80m and 40m will also be good

29. TCDXA Oct 2014 K9LA Summary We’re in the second peak of Cycle 24 We’re in the second peak of Cycle 24 It won’t last foreverIt won’t last forever Take advantage of good propagation on the higher bands now!Take advantage of good propagation on the higher bands now! Recent data suggests that we’re not headed into another Maunder Minimum Recent data suggests that we’re not headed into another Maunder Minimum Just a period of small solar cyclesJust a period of small solar cycles Dust off the low band gearDust off the low band gear FT4TA should be very workable on all bands FT4TA should be very workable on all bands We are inundated with space weather data We are inundated with space weather data I think it’s too much – but it’s colorful!I think it’s too much – but it’s colorful! In the next several years we’ll transition from the higher bands being best to the lower bands being best In the next several years we’ll transition from the higher bands being best to the lower bands being best