1. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -1 Chapter 10 Risk Assessment

2. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -2 Learning Objectives Define the components of risk assessment List what role risk assessment play in Canada Describe the types of correct and incorrect risk predictions Differentiate among static, stable, and acute dynamic risk factors

3. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -3 Learning Objectives Describe unstructured clinical judgment, actuarial prediction, and structured professional judgment List the four major types of risk factors

4. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -4 What is Risk Assessment? Risk is viewed as a range (Steadman, 2000) – Probabilities change across time – Interaction among offender characteristics and situation Risk assessment has 2 components: – Prediction – Management

5. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -5 Risk Assessments: Civil Settings Civil commitment Child protection Immigration laws School and labour regulations Duty to warn Limits of confidentiality

6. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -6 Risk Assessments: Criminal Settings Risk assessments conducted at major decision points: – Pretrial – Sentencing – Release Public safety outweighs solicitor-client privilege (Smith v. Jones, 1999)

7. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -7 Types of Prediction Outcomes True Positive True Negative False Positive False Negative – Two types of errors are dependent on each other – Each outcome has different consequences for offender or society

8. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -8 Predictions: Decisions Versus Outcomes DECISION ReoffendsDoes not reoffend Predicted to reoffend True positive (correct) False positive (incorrect) Predicted to not reoffend False negative (incorrect) True negative (correct) OUTCOME

9. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -9 History of Risk Assessment 1960’s – Baxstrom v. Herald (1966) – Dixon v. Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (1971) Baxstrom and Dixon studies – Base rate for violence low – False positive rate high

10. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -10 Base Rates Represents the % of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act – Prediction difficult when base rates are too high or low – False positives tend to occur with low base rates Easier to predict frequent vs. infrequent events

11. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -11 Methodological Issues Assumptions of risk assessment and measurement – Ideal evaluation vs. reality Three weaknesses of research (Monahan & Steadman, 1994): – Limited number of risk factors – How criterion variable is measured – How criterion variable is defined

12. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -12 Judgment Error and Biases Heuristics Illusory correlation Ignore base rates Reliance on salient or unique cues Overconfidence in judgements

13. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -13 Unstructured Clinical Judgment Decisions characterized by professional discretion and lack of guidelines Subjective No specific risk factors No rules about how risk decisions should be made

14. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -14 Dr. James Grigson Nicknamed “Dr. Death” or “the hanging shrink” Forensic psychiatrist in Dallas – Used unstructured clinical judgment – Expelled from professional association for claims of 100% accuracy in predicting violence

15. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -15 Actuarial Prediction Decisions based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on empirical or statistical evidence Most actuarial risk instruments include only static risk factors Evidence favours actuarial assessments over unstructured clinical judgment

16. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -16 Structured Professional Judgment Decisions guided by predetermined list of risk factors derived from research literature Judgment of risk level is based on professional judgement Diverse group of professionals

17. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -17 Risk Factor: Definition Risk Factor – measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behaviour of interest (e.g., criminal behaviour or violence)

18. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -18 Types of Predictors Static Risk Factors – Historical – Factors that cannot be changed Dynamic Risk Factors – Fluctuate over time – Factors that can be changed – Acute vs. stable dynamic risk factors

19. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -19 Important Risk Factors Dispositional Historical Clinical Contextual

20. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -20 Dispositional Risk Factors Demographics – Age – Gender Personality characteristics – Impulsivity – Psychopathy

21. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -21 Historical Risk Factors Past antisocial behaviour Age of onset of antisocial behaviour Childhood history of maltreatment Past supervision failure, escape, or institution maladjustment

22. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -22 Clinical Risk Factors Substance use Mental disorder – Diagnosis of schizophrenia or affective disorders – “Threat/control override” (TCO) symptoms

23. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -23 Contextual Risk Factors Lack of social support to help individual in his or her day-to-day life Easy access to weapons Easy access to victims

24. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -24 Risk Assessment Instruments Actuarial Instruments – Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; Harris et al., 1993) – Static-99(Hanson & Thornton, 1999)

25. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -25 Risk Assessment Instruments (continued) Structured Professional Judgment Instruments – HCR-20 (Webster et al., 1997) – Violence Risk Scale (VRS; Wong & Gordon, 2006) – Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA; Kropp et al., 1999)

26. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -26 Current Issues Where is the theory? – More attention on WHY is needed Protective factors – Factors that reduce or mitigate the likelihood of violence Limitations of risk assessments Use of scientific research – Practitioners not using instruments

27. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -27 Coping-Relapse Model of Criminal Recidivism (Figure 10.1; Zamble & Quinsey, 1997) Precipitating Event Cognitive & Emotional Appraisal Response MechanismIndividual Influences Criminal Behaviour

28. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -28 Female Offenders and Crime Gender differences in criminality –Women engage in less crime –Women reoffend at lower rates –Childhood victimization more prevalent –Mental disorders more prevalent

29. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -29 Female Offenders and Risk More similarities in risk factors for men and women than differences Gender-specific risk factors –History of self-injury –Poor self-esteem How well do risk assessment instruments developed with male offenders work with female offenders? –LSI-R has predictive validity

30. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -30 Desistance From Crime Desistance: process of ceasing to engage in criminal behaviour Little research on why offenders stop committing crime Factors relating to desistance: – Age – Employment – Marital relationships