Presentation on theme: "Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)"— Presentation transcript:
1 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
2 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Task : Describe the four steps of IPB.Condition: In a classroom environment and given class notes.Standard: Correctly identify the products and tools developed during the IPB process.**The task, condition and standards for the class are...
3 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Doctrinal principles of IPB:Evaluate the battlefield’s effects on friendly and enemy operations.Determine the enemy’s possible COAs and arrange them in the order that the enemy will do them.Identify key enemy assets (High Value Targets (HVTs)) for each enemy COA and where they will appear on the battlefield (Target Area of Interest (TAIs)).Identify the activities, or lack of activities, and where they will occur on the battlefield. These activities will assist in identifying which COA the enemy adopts.The principles and steps of the IPB process remain constant regardless of the type of mission, unit, staff section, or echelon conducting IPBThe application of the principles, however, varies with each specific situation.
4 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) IPB accomplishes the following:Identifies facts and assumptions about the battlefield environment and enemy.Provides direction for intelligence that supports the command’s chosen COA.Contributes to complete staff synchronization.Identifying facts and assumptions about the battlefield environment and enemy enables staff planning and development of friendly COAs.
5 IPB and the MDMP IPB MDMP Receipt of mission Mission analysis COA Initial IPBcompletedReceipt ofmissionMissionanalysisCOAdevelopmentCOA analysis(wargame)comparisonapprovalOrdersproductionCommander’s intial guidanceWarning Order 1Initial IPB productsRestated missionCommander’s intent and guidanceWarning order 2Staff ProductsBattlefield frameworkPreliminary movementMissionbrief tocommanderUpdateIPB productscompleteCOA statement and sketchesIPB productsbrought to thewargameWargame resultsTask organizationMission to subordinate unitsCCIRDecision matrixIntelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) is the Army’s method for collecting, organizing, and processing intelligence. It is an analytic framework for organizing information to help provide timely, accurate, and relevant intelligence to the military decision making process (MDMP)MDMP is based on continuous IPB, especially initial IPB during mission analysisThe commander drives intelligence; IPB is an integrated staff function driven by the commanderTrain your section to conduct IPB so you can coordinate closely with other staff.Push the staff to develop a robust and integrated R & S planRefined IPBcompletedApproved COARefined commander’s intentSpecified type of orderSpecified type of rehearsalHPTLContinuous IPBOPLAN/OPORDDENOTES: Commander’s input
6 Four Steps of IPB 1 2 3 4 Define the Battlefield Environment Describe theBattlefield’sEffectsEvaluate theThreatFour Steps of IPBDetermineThreat COAs**Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) is a systematic, continuous process of analyzing the threat and environment in a specific geographic area**It is designed to support staff estimates and military decision making.** It is the second step of the Mission Analysis portion of the MDMP**As you can see it is comprised of four basic steps that will be discussed in detail during this block of instruction
7 Tools for IPB Higher Headquarters Operations Order Graphics Staff EstimatesReferences:Military References- Soldiers- Information Systems (Open Source / Classified)Every soldier is a sensor.
8 Step 1FocusID characteristics of the battlefield that influence friendly and threat ops.Establish the limits of the area of interest (AI).ID gaps in current intelligence holdings.Define theBattlefieldEnvironment: Focus the IPB effort on the areas and characteristics of the battlefield that influence the command’s mission. Acquire the intelligence needed to complete the IPB process in the degree of detail required to support the MDMP. Save time and effort by focusing only on those areas and features that influence COAs and command decisions.Identify significant characteristics of the environment.Identify the limits of the command’s AO and battlespace.Establish the limits of the AI.Identify the amount of detail required within the time available for IPB.Evaluate existing databases and identify intelligence gaps.Collect the information and intelligence required to conduct the remainder of IPB.
9 Characteristics of the Battlefield Step 1 Define the Battlefield EnvironmentCharacteristics of the BattlefieldTerrain.Weather.Logistical infrastructure.Demographics.**It’s important to note here that we are simply identifying the characteristics of the battlefield. Their impact is discussed in step 2.**What is important in step one is identifying your geographical spaceAnalyze AO first, then battle space, and finally AIDEFINE THE BATTLEFIELD ENVIRONMENT4-32. In defining a counterinsurgency environment, intelligence professionals do the following:Consider the nature and strategy of the insurgency.Are there internal factors, external factor, or both that form a basis for the insurgency?Is there an identifiable pattern of insurgent activities?Does the insurgent organization function primarily within the established political system or in open competition with it?Determine international and national support to the insurgents. Include sources of moral, physical, and financial support.Consider the neighboring countries, boundaries and frontiers, and coastal waterways.Consider third-country support for the insurgency.Analyze the HN population, government, military, demographics, and threat.Who are the vulnerable elements in the population?Are they subject to insurgent exploitation?Evaluate HN political structure, economy, foreign policy and relations, and policies on military use.Consider if US presence, or potential presence, by itself could be a catalyst for insurgent activity.FM Counterinsurgency Operations
10 Step 1 Define the Battlefield Environment Assigned by higher based on METT-TC.METT-TC.Mission (combat, support, and stability-increases specified and implied tasks)Enemy (uniformed or not)Terrain (increased areas to analyze)Troops (more tasks to complete in a more complex environment)Time (difficult to determine)Civilians (various ethnic groups)Relevant questions for IPB Step One:What is the mission?What is the commander’s intent?What features comprise the AO?What areas can affect thecurrent mission? How?What information is availableabout the terrain, weather, andthreat?What information needs to beobtained about the AO, AI,battlespace, weather and threat?
11 Area of OperationsDefined by boundaries: left, right, rear, objective.Of sufficient size to allow completion of mission.CDR has authority and responsibility to operate.AO determination must now consider:- Increased manpower requirements to seize terrain- Urban terrain aspects- Mission requirements for Stability and Support Operations (SOSO)- Information Operations (IO)- Restrictive ROEThe limits of the AO are normally the boundaries specified in the OPORD from higher headquarters that define the command’s mission.Operations graphics specify the Area of Operations (AO)The degree of detail in the analysis will vary depending on the area of the battlefield environment you are evaluating. Generally, the evaluation of the AO is more detailed than the AI. Additionally, the focus will vary throughout each area. For example, rear areas within the AO may require a different focus than areas near the main battle area (MBA). Also bear in mind that the battlefield is not homogeneous. Certain areas, or sub-sectors, will affect various types of operations to varying degrees. During the evaluation, identify areas that favor each type of operation. Include the traditional operations (such as defense and offense) as well as the operations associated with any METT-TC specific factors (such as counterterrorism and peace enforcement).
12 Battle Space Battle space is conceptual. Higher does not assign it. Determined by CDR – Input fromS2 / S3 / Battle staff.Serves to focus intelligence development.**Determined by the maximum capabilities of a unit to acquire and dominate the enemy**The command’s capabilities in this regard include the target acquisition and long range assets of supporting and higher commands as well as it’s own organic systems**Example - a mech infantry unit’s TOW ranges 3750 meters, but it’s battlespace is much greater because of the supporting artillery and aviation assets of higherArea in which threat may influence mission,space, and time.
13 Area of InterestESTABLISH THE LIMITS OF THE AIThe AI is the geographical area from which information and intelligence are required to permit planning or successful conduct of the command’s operation. Because the commander and staff need time to process information and to plan and synchronize operations, the command’s AI is generally larger than its AO and battle space. The limits of the AI include each of the characteristics of the battlefield environment you identified as exerting an influence on available COAs or command decisions.Base the limits of the AI on the ability of the threat to project power or move forces into the AO. Also consider the geographical locations of other activities or characteristics of the environment which might influence COAs or the commander’s decisions. Consider also any anticipated future mission or “be prepared” and “on order” missions identified during mission analysis, and determine their effect on the limits of the AI. Finally, consider changes in the command’s battle space as a result of maneuver. An additional consideration would be to divide the AI into several components, such as a ground AI, an air AI, or a political AI.One of the primary considerations is time. Base time limit not only on threat’s mobility, both ground and air, but also on the amount of time needed to accomplish the mission. For example, if it is estimated that it will take two days to complete an operation, the AI must encompass all forces or activities that could influence accomplishment of the command’s mission within two days.The area from which information and intelligence are required to permit planningConsider the locations of other activities or characteristics of the environment that might influenceCOAs or the commander’s decisionsConsider any “be prepared” or “on order” missionsPrimary consideration is time
14 Identify Intelligence Gaps OUTSIDE ORGANIZATIONSWorld Health OrganizationsOther Military ServicesMedia SourcesRelief OrganizationsUnited Nations SourcesOUTSIDE AGENCIESANPNDSSERCHES ANDINTERNET SITESINTERNET Open SourcesUniversity ResearchInternational SourcesDATABASESHistorical DatabasesTopographical SurveysIntelligence EstimatesIdentify gaps in your intelligence holdings. What sources of information are available to help fill these gaps? Initiate collection or requests for intelligence to fill intelligence gaps. Include collection against all identified significant characteristics of the battlefield, not just threat forces, in priority order.
15 Step 1 Define the Battlefield Environment Success results in:Common Operational Picture (COP) of the Operational EnvironmentSaves time and effort by focusing on those areas and features which will influence COAs and command decisionsConsequences of failure:Waste time and effort collecting and evaluating intel on features of the battlefield environment that will not influence success of the command’s missionMay lead to the command’s surprise and unpreparedness when some overlooked feature of the battlefield exerts an influence on success of the command’s mission
16 Step 2 Terrain Analysis OCOKA Weather Analysis Visibility Wind Describe theOCOKABattlefield’sWeather AnalysisEffectsVisibilityWind**We’ve identified the battlefield environment in step one, now we are going to describe their effects on the battlefield.Describe the battlefield’s effectsAnalyze the battlefield environment:Terrain analysis.Weather analysis.Analysis of other characteristics of the battlefield.Describe the battlefield’s effects on threat and friendly capabilities and broad COAs.Step 2 evaluates the effects of the environment with which both sides must contend. The G2/S2 identifies the limitations and opportunities the environment offers on the potential operations of friendly and threat forces. This evaluation focuses on the general capabilities of each force until COAs are developed in later steps of the IPB process. This assessment of the environment always includes an examination of terrain and weather but may also include discussions of the characteristics of geography and infrastructure and their effects on friendly and threat operations. Characteristics of geography include general characteristics of the terrain and weather, as well as such factors as politics, civilian press, local population, and demographics. An area’s infrastructure consists of the facilities, equipment, and framework needed for the functioning of systems, cities, or regions. Products developed in this step might include, but are not limited to—Population status overlay.Overlays that depict the military aspects and effects of terrain.Weather analysis matrix.Integrated products such as modified combined obstacle overlays (MCOOs).Regardless of the subject or means of presentation, the G2/S2 ensures that these productsfocus on the effects of the battlefield environment.FMPrecipitationCloudTemperature
17 Step 2 Describe the Battlefield’s Effects Analyze the battlefield environment:Terrain analysisWeather analysisAnalysis of other characteristics of the battlefieldDescribe the battlefield’s effects on threat and friendly capabilities and broad COAs.Analysis of other characteristics - analyze all aspects of the environment that effect friendly or threat COAs not already incorporated into the terrain and weather analysis (i.e., logistics infrastructure, population demographics, economics, and politics). This is very important when analyzing the battlefield as it relates to SOSO.For instance, population demographics will probably reveal more than a standard Modified Combined Obstacle Overlay (MCOO).DESCRIBE THE BATTLEFIELD’S EFFECTS (TERRAIN AND HUMAN)In defining the battlefield’s effects in a counterinsurgency environment, intelligenceprofessionals do the following:Determine points of entry, infiltration and exfiltration routes, C2 structures for operations, and agricultural areas.Evaluate weather’s effects on the mobility of insurgents and their logistic efforts, for example, the availability of food supply due to weather extremes.Consider migration and settlement patterns to identify which areas are progovernment or proinsurgent. Identify the locations of groups that create territorial boundaries the insurgents may try to make autonomous to gain political advantage.Determine how political and religious affiliation and practices influence the people’s attitudes towards both enemy and friendly operations.Examine efforts to create or increase unrest and dissension among the population. Are the insurgents conducting IO against existing or proposed HN policies and programs?Evaluate how economics and money affect the insurgents’ ability to conduct offensive operations. They will influence the populace’s active support for or against the insurgency.FM Counterinsurgency operations
18 Step 2 Describe the Battlefield’s Effects (Terrain) OCOKAObservations and Fields of Fire.Cover and Concealment.Obstacles.Key Terrain.Avenues of Approach.Observation: ability to see either visually or through surveillance devices, from both ground and airFields of Fire: ability to effectively utilize direct and indirect firesCover: protection from the effects of direct and indirect firesConcealment: protection from ground, air and sensor observationObstacles - Natural or manmade features that will stop, impede, or divert movementKey terrain is any locality or area the seizure, retention, or control of which affords a markedadvantage to either command. It varies with the level of command.Key terrain becomes decisive terrain if it has an extraordinary impact on the mission.Avenue of Approach - Underground, ground or air route of an attacking force of a given size leading to its objective or key terrainObservation and Fields of FireIndividuals or groups in the population can be co-opted by one side or another to perform a surveillance or reconnaissance function, performing as moving outposts to gather information.Local residents have intimate knowledge of the local area. Their observations can provide information and insights about what might otherwise remain a mystery. For instance, residents often know about shortcuts through town. They might also be able to observe and report on a demonstration or meeting that occurs in their area.Unarmed combatants might provide targeting intelligence to armed combatants engaged in a confrontation. This was readily apparent in Mogadishu, where unarmed combatants with the ability to observe friendly force activities without the threat of being engaged instructed hidden threat forces on where to fire.Deception and adversarial propaganda threats may hinder a clear view of the threat’s tactics or intentions.Fields of fire can be extremely limited by the presence of noncombatants in a combat zone because restrictive ROE may prohibit firing into a crowd.Figuratively, the population or regions within a local area can be identified as nonlethal targets for IO.Cover and ConcealmentThreat forces operating in any part of a local urban area can instantly blend into any type of crowd or activity.Threat forces often find cover by operating within a neutral group. For instance, al Qaeda operatives and fighters are able to often move freely among and mix with the rural populace living near Afghanistan-Pakistan border. However, these same people have difficulty remaining nondescript and moving freely among urban populations due to regional differences in their accent, mode of dress, hair and beard styles, and skin pigment.Reportedly, insurgents attempted to move in the company of women and children (acting as family members) and mixed among the populace exiting and entering Fallujah during operations there in spring 2004.ObstaclesOne of the largest obstacles to friendly operations is the portion of the population that actively supports the insurgent.People conducting their daily activities will often “get in the way” of any type of operation. For instance, curiosity-driven crowds in Haiti often affected patrols by inadvertently forcing units into the middle of the street and pushing them into a single file. No harm was inflicted, but the unit was made move vulnerable to sniper and grenade attacks.Strategically, the world audience, as well as its local contingent, can create political, cultural, and ideological obstacles to a mission. The US audience watching events unfold in Vietnam can be understood as an obstacle to the government’s strategy of pursuing its strategic objectives. The cultural differences apparent when US forces were deployed for Operation Desert Storm could have been an obstacle if not adequately addressed. For instance, a PSYOP flier produced to encourage a sense of unity among the Arab populations included a picture of two men holding hands, a sight not common in Western cultures. A flier designed in accordance with Western standards might not have been as effective.Key TerrainThe population in counterinsurgency operations is key terrain. This is based on the idea that public opinion and their support or lack thereof can change the course or the aims of a mission. The United States’ withdrawal from Somalia following the outcry after seeing a dead Soldier being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu is often used in urban operations literature as an example of the power of an audience. Determining which population or portions of it are key to a mission should not be limited to broad-brush characterizations of large populations, however. Certain sectors or individuals within a population can be as pivotal in modern engagements as a piece of high ground was in past eras, or as the entire US population was in regard to Mogadishu.Captured combatants or a well-informed noncombatant can provide valuable information about the enemy. These individuals can be key terrain in terms of the information they can provide.A group of people that US forces are deployed to protect might be considered key terrain because loss of that group’s respect could jeopardize the entire operation.Congregated people can be considered key terrain. Whether moving or stationary, a large gathering might be a ripe target for attack, closer observation, or attempts at manipulation.Avenues of ApproachPopulations present during operations physically restrict movement and maneuver by limiting or changing the width of avenues of approach.People may assist movement if a group can be used as human barriers between one combatant group and another. Refugee flows, for example, can provide a concealed avenue of approach for members of an enemy force.A certain individual can provide an avenue of approach to a specific target audience when acting as a “mouthpiece” for an IO mission.FM
19 Existing counter-mobility obstacles AA3CAA4AAA4BVegetationModified Combined Obstacle Overlay (MCOO)K9+LOA (PL Gold)PL ZincPL SilverXXXXSurface DrainageK8+Other ObstaclesK7bK7aCombined ObstacleOverlay (COO)K5+K6Remember that the analysis of the battlefield environment -- terrain, weather, and other battlefield characteristics -- is not the end product of the intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) process. Rather, they are the means to determine which friendly courses of action (COAs) can best exploit the opportunities the battlefield provides and how the battlefield environment affects the threat's available COAs.The Combined Obstacle Overlay depicts effects on mobility.To construct a MCOO, start with the combined obstacle overlay and consider adding—Cross-country mobility classifications. Mark areas of RESTRICTED and SEVERELYRESTRICTED cross-country mobility with easily distinguishable symbology.AAs and mobility corridors. Tailor these to the type force under consideration, basingthem on factors other than mobility as required. Categorize them by the size force theyaccommodate and rank them in priority order if justified. While it is possible to putboth ground and air mobility corridors and AAs on the same overlay, clarity mayrequire separate overlays. Consider both friendly and threat avenues.Counter-mobility obstacle systems. Include only those known to exist within the AI.Defensible terrain. Evaluate terrain along each AA to identify potential battle positionsor possible defensive sectors for subordinate units.Engagement areas. Combine the results of evaluating defensible terrain with the resultsof evaluating observation and fields of fire to identify potential engagement areas.Key terrain. Identify any areas or terrain features which dominate the AAs or objectiveareas. These will usually correspond to terrain already identified as potential battlepositions or intermediate objectives.K3Mobility CorridorsAvenues of ApproachExisting counter-mobility obstaclesKey TerrainK2K4SEVERLY RESTRICTIVE TERRAINRESTRICTIVE TERRAINUNFORDABLE RIVER OR RESERVOIRFORDABLE RIVERCITY/VILLAGEKEY TERRAINMCOOAA 1K1
20 Weather Effect (WX) Resources Staff Weather Officer (SWO) Aviation WX Team.Air Force Resources.INTERNET.Weather Radio.Use multiple sources and methods for weather information, just as you would use multiple sources and methods for intelligence collection.**WX - WeatherIdentify Systems in YOUR unit.Identify the weather effects on these systemsFM Battlefield Weather EffectsBlend in Operator Knowledge
21 Light & Weather Effects 7 JAN8 JAN9 JANSR:06491200240006001800SS:1705SS:1706MS:0716BMNT:0435LIGHT TABLESR:06:47BMNT:0437SS:1704BMNT:0436SR:0648MS:0630MS:0549EENT:1949EENT:1950EENT:1951TEMP HIGH LOW 76 FNNW at 19 mphProvide Weather Forecast; Include Lunar Data.WINDCEILING> 5000 FTVISIBILITY> 3000MHUMIDITY 93%PRECIPLIGHT
22 Weather Effects PERIOD 270600LDEC to 010600LJAN Impacted Clouds Precip WindVisibilityTempItemsF EF EF EF EF ENBCADAArmorArtilleryAviationCSSENGPersonnelThis can be done by BOS and can also address impacts of weather on systems or activities specific to your operation.**It’s important to note that the weather can affect the enemy systems differently than our own.F= friendlyE= EnemyIntelNo ImpactModerate ImpactSevere ImpactEffectiveness 25-75%Effectiveness 0-25%Identify Systems in YOUR unit.Identify the weather effects on these systemsFM Battlefield Weather EffectsBlend in Operator KnowledgeHighlight advantages and disadvantages
23 Step 2 Describe the Battlefield’s Effects (Other Effects) Demographics: Identify population groups that are sympathetic, neutral, and hostile.Infrastructure of the Battlefield:Airfields, roads, railways andHost Nation Support capabilities.Analyze all aspects of the environment that affect friendly or threat COAs not already incorporated into the terrain and weather analysis (i.e. logistics infrastructure, population demographics, economics, and politics). For example, population demographics will probably reveal more than a standard MCOO in operations other than war.
24 Step 2 Describe the Battlefield’s Effects (Other Effects) AREAS: Locations or aspects of the terrain that normally have no military significance.STRUCTURES: Location, function, and capabilities of structures and their ability to support military operations.CAPABILITIES: Who provides key functions or services to populace?ORGANIZATIONS: NGO, terrorist groups, and criminals.PEOPLE : Civilians that could influence the military mission (both inside and outside AO).EVENTS : Activities that impact civilian lives or military operations.
25 Step 2 Describe the Battlefield’s Effects Success results in:- Allowing the commander to quickly choose and exploit the terrain that best supports the friendly mission.Consequences of failure:- The commander will fail to exploit the opportunities that the environment provides.- The threat will find and exploit opportunities in a manner the commander did not anticipate.Relevant questions for IPB Step Two:What terrain and weather features exist within the AO and AI?Are there elements (e.g., demography, culture, laws) that can influence the unit’s operation?How will all of these elements affect the friendly COA? Enemy COA?
26 Step 3 Determination of threat: Capabilities. Doctrinal principles. TTPs.Evaluate the Threat**We’ve looked at the battlefield, the weather and terrain during steps one and two, now the focus of IPB moves to the enemy**TTP’s - Tactics, Technique and ProceduresIn step 3, the G2/S2 and his staff analyze the command’s intelligence holdings to determine how the threat normally organizes for combat and conducts operations under similar circumstances. When facing a well-known threat, the G2/S2 can rely on his historical data bases and well developed threat models. When operating against a new or less well-known threat, he may need to develop his intelligence data bases and threat models concurrently.The G2/S2’s evaluation is portrayed in a threat model that includes doctrinal templates which depict how the threat operates when unconstrained by the effects of the battlefield environment. Although they usually emphasize graphic depictions (doctrinal templates),threat models sometimes emphasize matrices or simple narratives.FMStep three of IPB, evaluate the threat, develops a profile of the enemy. The purpose of this step is to develop threat models which accurately portray how the adversary doctrinally operates under normal conditions. The analyst seeks to determine enemy composition, strength, disposition, tactics, goals, and vulnerabilities by using information provided by other intelligence agencies and the unit’s organic intelligence assets.FM /MCRP 2-12A, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield, clearly defines the process by which the intelligence analyst should develop a model of a conventional enemy. For example, intelligence staffs are required to identify threat force structure, weapons inventories, key leaders, doctrinal formations, and TTP. Using historical information on how the known enemy generally employs his tactics, intelligence analysts are then able to create templates that portray how the enemy might operate in the area of operations.FM 34-7 (Initial Draft), IEW for Stability Operations and Support Operations, supplements this traditional analysis with an investigation of all elements that might hinder mission accomplishment. Incorporating terrain, population, man-made objects, and the psychology of both threat and friendly forces, the analyst seeks to uncover all aspects of the environment that pose a threat to successful completion of the mission. This manual highlights the fact that threats are mission dependent and therefore not consistent for every type of operation. For instance, a “threat” in a humanitarian operation might be an inadequate water supply, while a threat in a combatoperation could be a determined, well-equipped, and organized force. Regardless of threat, the evaluation must include a thorough investigation of how it can directly and indirectly affect the friendly unit and its success in accomplishing the assigned mission.Describe the threat in stability and support operation (SASO) scenarios as “anything that threatens mission accomplishment.” When deployed as part of a combat operation against a clear adversary, the direct military threat is known and evaluation can proceed as dictated by the three-step process outlined in FM :1. Identify the threat.2. Update or create threat models.3. Identify threat capabilities.
27 Capabilities 9 Order of Battle Factors Composition Logistics Support Disposition Combat EffectivenessStrength Electronic Data MaterialPreferred Tactics Training StatusMiscellaneous Data**There are numerous characteristics that can be used to evaluate the enemy. These are 9 factors that must be considered as you evaluate the threat.Miscellaneous data includes supporting information needed but not covered by an order of battle factor. This could include—Family history.False unit identification.Names or designatorsPolitical and military goalsPSYOP.Demographics.FM Appendix DRelevant questions for IPB Step Three:Who is the threat?What is his desired endstate?Where are his forces deployed?What type of weapons, equipment, and tactics will he use?How does he doctrinally conduct operations?What is the morale of personnel?Who is the key leader?
28 Step 3 Evaluate the Threat Update or create threat models:- Convert threat doctrine or patterns of operation to graphics (situational templates)- Describe in words the threat’s tactics and options- Identify High Value Targets (HVTs)Identify Threat Capabilities: includes not only range of available weapons systems, but upgrades to those systems, to include innovations of systems (ex. IED).Threat models depict how threat forces prefer to conduct operations under ideal conditions.Convert threat doctrine or patternsof operation to graphics(Doctrinal Templates)Determine threat’s tactics and optionsIdentify Threat HVT’sIdentify Threat CapabilitiesHVTs are assets that the threat commander requires for the successful completion of the mission.Identification of Type HVTs:Assets that the threat commander requires for the successful completion of the mission depicted and described on the template are HVTs. Identify HVTs from an evaluation of the data base, the doctrinal template, its supporting narrative, and the use of tactical judgment. HVTs usually (but not always) fall within the non- maneuver BOS. Develop the initial list of HVTs by mentally wargaming and thinking through the operation under consideration and how the threat will use the assets of each BOS to support it. Identify any that are critical to the operation’s success. For example, while mentally wargaming an enemy air attack against friendly targets supported by a well prepared air defense system, it is logical to assume that the enemy will need a substantial air defense suppression package as part of the strike force. In such a case, threat aircraft commonly used in such a role become HVTs. Identity assets which are key to executing the primary operation. Also identify any assets which are key to satisfying decision criteria or initial adoption of the branches and sequels listed in the description and option statements. Determine how the threat might react to the loss of each identified HVT. Consider his ability to substitute other assets as well as the likelihood of adopting branches to the operation. After identifying the set of HVTs, rank order them with regard to their relative worth to the threat’s operation and record them as part of the threat model. An HVT’s value usually varies over the course of an operation. Identify any changes in value by phase of the operation and make the necessary annotations. As you identify key assets, group them into one of the 13 categories used to develop target sets.These 13 categories are—Command, control, and communications (C3).Fire support (includes target acquisition assets, ammunition, aircraft, fire directioncontrol, and others).Maneuver.Air defense (includes radars, processing centers, and headquarters).Engineer.Reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition (RISTA).NBC (includes support elements and weapons).Radio electronic combat (REC) or EW assets.Bulk fuels (storage and refueling assets).Ammunition storage sites and distribution points.Maintenance and repair units (includes collection points and mobile repair facilities).Lift.LOCs (roads, bridges, railheads, transloading facilities, airfields, choke points, others).
29 Step 3 Evaluate the Threat SOSO Considerations:Threat ID becomes more difficult.- Lack of uniforms and equipment- Varying levels of organizationIncreased threat options.- Terrorist-type activityLarge scale demolitionsCovert collection and operations- Unconventional & Conventional Capability- Effective environment for Economyof Force missions:Sniper MortarsBooby Traps IEDsRPGsCar AlarmD cell BatteriesExplosive ChargeFiring WireElectric BlastingCapEVALUATE THE THREAT4-34. In evaluating the threat in a counterinsurgency environment, intelligence professionalsdo the following:Identify which insurgent groups are present, thought to be present, or have accessto your AO.Is the insurgency linked to a racial, religious, ethnic, or regional base?FM Counterinsurgency Operations
30 Step 3 Evaluate the Threat Determine THREAT HVTsBASED ON:Mission RequirementsCombat OperationsCasualty ProducingWeapons Systems.C2 StructureSOSOKey IndividualsIO TargetsHVTs - Assets that the enemy commander requires for the successful completion of his mission.Rank order by phase of the operationS2 / FSO uses HVTs to plan HPTsThreat CapabilitiesReverse BOS Analysis
31 Step 3 Evaluate the Threat Success results in:Allowing the commander to know what the threat is and is not capable of and trained to do in similar situations.Consequences of failure:The staff will lack the intelligence needed for planning.The threat will surprise the friendly force with capabilities for which the S2 failed to account.The staff may waste time and effort planning against threat capabilities that do not exist.
32 Step 4ECOAsSituation Template(s).Adaptive Operations.Pattern Analysis.Event Template.Event Matrix.DetermineThreatCOAs**Step three looked at the enemy in an unconstrained environment. Step 4 looks at determining enemy COA’s on the specific battlefield.Step 4 integrates the results of the previous steps into a meaningful conclusion. Given what the threat normally prefers to do, and the effects of the specific environment in which he is operating now, what are his likely objectives and the COAs available to him? In step 4, the G2/S2 develops enemy COA models that depict the threat’s available COAs. He also prepares event templates and matrices that focus intelligence collection on identifying which COA the threat will execute. The enemy COA models developed in step 4 are the products that the staff will use to portray the threat in the decision making and targeting processes. The G2/S2 cannot produce these models, effectively predicting the threat COAs, unless he has—Adequately analyzed the friendly mission throughout the time duration of the operation; identified the physical limits of the AO and AI; and identified every characteristic of the battlefield environment that might affect the operation (step 1).Identified the opportunities and constraints the battlefield environment offers to threat and friendly forces (step 2).Thoroughly considered what the threat is capable of and what he prefers to do in like situations if unconstrained by the battlefield environment (step 3).In short, the enemy COA models which drive the decision making process are valid only if the G2/S2 establishes a good foundation during the first three steps of the IPB process.FMReplicate the set of COAs that the threat CDR and his staff are considering.
33 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Identify the threat’s likely objectives and desired end state.Determine system capabilities and vulnerabilities.Identify the full set of ECOAs available to the threat.Evaluate and prioritize each ECOA.Develop each ECOA in the amount of detail time allows.Identify initial collection requirements.Identify likely objectives and desired end state one level above your own and working to two levels down from your own. In some cases you may go lower if those actions will significantly affect your success. Example: A sniper team seeking to delay defensive preparations, insurgent teams conducting recon and direct action missions to prepare the battlefield for a larger attack.In most cases you won’t have time to develop COAs for all possible enemy actions. The G2 should focus on situational templates that identify, as a minimum, the enemy’s most likely and most dangerous courses of action.Design your collection strategy to assist you in deciding what COA the enemy is opting to use. The collection strategy must support the commander’s intent. The collection strategy should concentrate on the differences between the NAIs, and indicators of each COA. The NAIs, indicators, and time-phase lines form the basis of the event template, the guide for collection and R&S planning.
34 Situation Templates Graphic depiction of the threat, with terrain and weather constraints, at a particular locationand time of an operation.Focus on the key area agreed upon by the S2and the S3.Determine critical events.May need more than one SITTEMP per ECOA.**Taking the doctrinal template and relating it to the current enemy unit on the current battlefield.**Sit temps use time phase lines (TPL) to indicate movement of forces and the expected flow of the operation.CURRENT DOCTRINAL IPB STEP FOUR: DEVELOP ENEMY COURSES OF ACTIONStep four of IPB, develop enemy courses of action, incorporates the first three steps of the process into a picture of how the enemy will use terrain, weather, and its existing assets to achieve its goals within the designated AO, AOI, and battlespace. FM /MCRP 2-12A defines this step as “the identification and development of the threat plans adopted by them to accomplish their mission, thus showing their direct impact on the accomplishment of the friendly mission or stated goals.” The resulting products are templates depicting predicted enemy behavior throughout the AO. A consolidated list of all potential adversary COAs should be developed during this step. At a minimum, the list will include “all COAs the adversary’s doctrine considers appropriate to the current situation and accomplishment of his likely objectives [and] all adversary COAs which could significantly influence the friendly mission, even if the adversary doctrine considers them suboptimal under current conditions, and all adversary COAs indicated by recent activities or events. Named areas of interest (NAIs) are associated with each templated enemy COA. NAI are designated points that will help confirm or deny a particular enemy COA. The formal definition is “a point or area along a particular avenue of approach through which enemy activity is expected to occur. Activity or lack of activity within an NAI will help to confirm or deny a particular enemy course of action.” For instance, many maneuver NAI are key intersections along designated avenues of approach. By placing intelligence-gathering assets at these locations, the COA chosen by the adversary can be determined based on whether his force goes left, right, or in another direction. Also included as part of the overall enemy COA development is the identification of high-payoff targets (HPT) and high- value targets (HVT). HPT are targets the loss of which by the threat “will contribute to the success of the friendly force course of action.” HVT are “assets that the threat commander requires for the successful completion of a specific course of action.” Targeting these assets is therefore critical to the successful accomplishment of the friendly mission. Identification of HVT may also lead to elucidation of the enemy’s center of gravity (COG), which is doctrinally defined as “the hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends.
35 Guidelines for Depicting SITTEMPsDetermine the snapshot in time to depict the enemy.Adjust the SITTEMP and battlefield framework IAW:- Weather and Terrain Effects- Threat Doctrine / Preferred TacticsTemplate 2 levels down from YOUR unit.Depict all BOS / Special Munitions available to the threat, as they support each ECOA.Address the full spectrum of enemy capabilities.Use correct symbology.
36 Conventional Warfare Situational Template (SITTEMP) EVALUATE THE THREAT:Composition, disposition, strength, tactics, combat effectivenessDETERMINE THREAT COURSES OF ACTIONThreatModelFIRE SACG2: Please tell us what a SITEMP is?ANS: Situation templates graphically depict expected threat COAs, should he chose to adopt a particular COA. Usually depict the most critical point in the operation as agreed upon by the G2 and G3. Used to support staff wargaming and develop event templates. (FM , pThis when combined with a enemy COA statement provides you with ECOAs to wargame against. Very critical for subsequent planning.As you prepare and mentally wargame the situation template, note how and where each of the BOS provides critical support to the COA. This leads to identification of High Value Targets (HVTs). HVTs are assets that the threat commander requires for the successful completion of the mission.A Doctrinal template – depicts enemy forces according to doctrinal deployment, unconstrained by terrainA Situation template depicts deployed enemy forces adjusted for obstacles and terrain (FM )At a minimum identify enemy most probable and most dangerous COAsMCOOEN COAsFIRE SACSITTEMP
37 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Regional OperationsAdaptive OperationsDestruction of all enemy maneuver elementsOverwhelm with echelonsAttack from march to timetableRely on use of massed artillery systemsDestroy key systems.Eliminate resolve.Neutralize technological overmatch.“Create a window of opportunity”.Preserve own combat power.As you can see, regional operations they can take a more conventional approach, and as extraregional forces enter their AO/AI, they switch to different tactics.
38 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Event-basednotManeuver-basedEventsIntended EffectsDesired End StateSniperBombingMortarAttackObserveOnlyLoss ofPublicSupportLowerMoraleOperationtoo longtoo costlyANA FailsCF LeavesCOA’s may consist of linked singular events to reach a desired end-state vice conventional maneuver operations to destroy enemy forces and seize terrain.
39 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Tools to help determine Threat TTPs and Patterns Analysis:Incident Overlay.Pattern Analysis Plot Chart.Time-event Chart.Association and Activities Matrix.Link Diagram.
40 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Incident Overlay: HeratKKThis is just an example of an incident overlay. You could number these and cross reference them to a log for more detailed information to include date and time.KKidnappingVBIEDRocket/MortorPoint of Impact
41 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Pattern Analysis:DETAINEESCACHERECONBOMBDRIVE BYPROPOGANDADIRECT ACTIONAMBUSHMORTARCHEMICALPARAMILITARYCAMP13811109127140001 L0600 L1200 L0400 L0200 L1000 L0800 L2000 L1600 L1400 L2200 L1800 L6How are the threat’s activities related?A time pattern analysis worksheet is used to record the date and time of each serious incident. The rings depict days of the month, the segments depict hours of the day. Similar tools help distinguish patterns in activity that are tied to particular days, dates, or times.Reference: FM
42 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Pattern Analysis:Are we creating patterns? Does our pattern coincide with threat activities?HN LIAISONCHECK PT OPSSECURITY PATROLBUB (KEY LDR MOVEMENT)LOGPACK13811109127140001 L0600 L1200 L0400 L0200 L1000 L0800 L1900 L1600 L1400 L2200 L1800 L6
43 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Association Matrix:Name oneName twoName threeName fourTools currently used by the Army can assist in mapping the relationships between one population element and another.The association matrix helps to identify the nature of the relationship between individuals or groups.It is a helpful way to identify intelligence requirements about particular people.SuspectedKnown
44 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Activities Matrix:Name oneName twoName threeName fourCharting the individual to his known activities, can serve to identify the capabilities and intentions of the various groups to which he belongs.INTELPSYOPSSuspectedTRAININGTERRORISMPROPAGANDAKnown
45 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Link Diagram:IntelFCFinanceKidnappingExtortionJKTerrorForeign SupportABRecruitingGHIPropagandaDTrainingA link diagram graphically represents the relationships between population elements. Each of the circles represents individuals; the boxes that surround them indicate their group affiliations. Note that the boxes can represent the name of a group, if known, or an activity in which the individual is known to have participated.LogisticsE
46 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Event Template: Identifies critical enemy activity locations. Guide for intelligence collection, and Intel Surveillance Recon (ISR) planning.Event Matrix: Supports Event template. Provides details on:- Type Threat activity expected in NAI- Time the NAI is expected to be active- Relationship to other events on thebattlefieldThe event template depicts locations where critical events and activities are expected to occur and where HVTs will appear. The purpose is to analyze time-related events within critical areas. Provides a basis for collection operations and for locating and tracking HVTs.4
47 Event Template (EVENT TEMP) MAPEnemy SITTEMP 3Enemy SITTEMP 2MCOOEnemy SITTEMP 1H+1H+2NAI312Event TemplateAfter identifying the set of potential threat COAs, the challenge is to determine which one he will actually adapt. Initial collection requirements are designed to help you answer this.You must predict specific areas and activities, which, when observed, will reveal which COAs the threat has chosen. The areas where you expect key events to occur are called Named Areas of Interest (NAI).The activities which reveal the selected COA are called indicators.The IPB process identifies any critical gaps in the command’s knowledge of the battlefield environment or threat situation. As part of his initial planning guidance, the commander uses these gaps as a guide to establish his initial intelligence requirements.The event template allows the G2 to confirm or deny the situation templates, gauge enemy and friendly rates of movement, compare rates of movement between mobility corridors and avenues of approach, and cue other collection assets based on friendly and enemy movement.On each Situation template identify locations to look for enemy activityFocus on locations and activities that assist in identifying which COA the enemy has chosenThe key locations that you choose are called Named Areas of Interest (NAI)The event template will help in development of the Reconnaissance & Surveillance Plan
48 Event Matrix ExampleFigure , Page 3-54, FM**This is an example but remember these event matrixes can take many forms.The event matrix supports the event template by providing details on the type of activity expected in each NAI, the times the NAI expected to be active, and its relationship to other events on the battlefield. Its primary use is in planning intelligence collection; however, it also serves as an aid to situation development.
49 fixing force moves south on Rt Red Why have an ISR plan?Fill in information gaps.Answer Commander’s PIR.Support Commander’s decision making.R&S Tasking MatrixUNITSTARTREPORTINGREMARKSTaskingPIRNAILOCATIONSTOPEVENT OR INDICATORSCT1945fixing force moves south on Rt RedSurveillance1B2CH51242021456 BTRs & 3 T-72 moving southPriority intelligence requirements (PIR) in stability operations and support operations may differ from those in offensive and defensive operations.In combat operations, PIR focuses on the enemy’s military capability and intentions. However, intelligence collection in stability operations and support operations may adjust to the people and their cultures, politics, crime, religion, economics, and related factors, and any variances within affected groups of people.Generally, in offensive and defensive operations, PIR are answered and targets are attacked and destroyed. In stability operations and support operations, collection and production to answer PIR may be ongoing tasks.For example, PIR related to treaty verification or force protection may continue as long as the mission requires.Ref: FM 3-07, Stability Operations and Support Operations
50 Targeted Area of Interest (TAI) Template MAPEnemy SITTEMP 3Enemy SITTEMP 2MCOOEnemy SITTEMP 1H+1H+2NAI312ABTAI TemplateHigh Value Targets (HVTs) are assets that the enemy needs to accomplish his missionIdentify locations and events where the enemy may employ high value targets (HVTs).These locations become TAIs.TAIs are areas where the friendly commander can influence the action by fire and/or maneuver.
51 Friendly Course of Action (COA) Development MAPEnemy Most Probable COAMCOOH+1H+2NAI312ABTAI TemplateIFriendly COAThe commander’s guidance provides a basis for the initial forces array needed to counter the enemy’s actions. The G-2’s role in friendly COA development is to ensure that each friendly COA takes advantage of the opportunities offered by the environment and the threat situation (enemy weaknesses)The staff develops friendly COAs based on the commander’s guidance and the facts and assumptions identified during IPB and Mission Analysis.
52 Decision Point and Critical Event Development MAPMCOOEnemy Most Probable COAIFriendly COADecision Support TemplateH+1H+2NAI312ABThe TAI/event template is placed over the friendly and enemy COA overlays. As the staff wargames the COAs, a recorder, writes down the results on a synchronization matrix.Decision points are identified throughout the battlefield when the staff wargames the enemy and friendly COAs.During the wargame the staff identifies all the critical events, locations, times and decisions that both friendly and enemy commanders must make.Using the action/reaction/counteraction drill, information is added to the TAI/event template.At the completion of the wargaming process the TAI/event template becomes the decision support templateDecision points are identified when the staff wargames the enemy and friendly COAs.During the wargame the staff identifies all the critical events, locations, times and decisions that both friendly and enemy commanders must make.Using the action/reaction/counteraction drill, information is added to the TAI/event template.At the completion of the wargaming process the TAI/event template becomes the decision support template.The Decision Support Template is a graphic form of the synchronization matrix
54 Step 4 Determine Threat COAs Success results in:The commander and staff will avoid being surprised with an unanticipated threat action.You will be able to quickly narrow the set of possible threat COAs to the one he has chosen.Consequences of failure:You will fail to identify which of the possible COAs the threat has chosen, leading to surprise of the friendly command.Many of the steps involved in IPB are time intensive. This is especially true at the tactical echelons where automated support for terrain analysis and other functions is not available. Unfortunately, these echelons generally have less time available for the IPB process.Following are some effective techniques for abbreviating the IPB process:The best solution is to complete as much ahead of time as possible.Work AheadEstablish a series of base products, particularly those that deal with the battlefield environment’s effects on operations.Keep the data bases on the threat up to date. As you develop intelligence that indicates changes or evolution in threat doctrine, change the threat models to match.Keep them updated by periodic review instead of waiting until receipt of a new mission.Focus on Essentialsmaking process.Consider the general factors of METT-TC when starting the IPB effort, particularly that of time. Backward plan the IPB effort. Determine how much time you can devote to each step of the IPB process. Ensure that the timeline allows you to properly support the decisionDecide which products you will develop and to what degree of detail. Focus on the products most important to your mission. Rather than fully developing one threat COA at the expense of all others, identify the full range of available COAs. Determine the degree of detail required and then develop all COAs to that level of detail.Always work in a priority order established by the commander’s intent and needs. He may specify which COAs he wants you to focus on, such as the most likely or the most dangerous. This implies that you first identify all COAs and evaluate them to determine which is the most likely or most dangerous.The objective of IPB is to help the commander and his staff put together the best possible plan in the time available. This requires models of the range of viable threat COAs that will influence mission accomplishment. Supporting the finished plan with intelligence requires a good event template and matrix. Everything else is only a means to producing these essentials.Stay Objective OrientedIn a pinch you can get by with just a good set of threat COA models and a good event template and matrix. To save time and materials, you can combine all threat COA model templates and the event template on a single map overlay, or use cartoons and sketches as a map substitute.The Minimum EssentialsIf you have not yet described the battlefield environment’s effects, work directly from the map or a sketch of major terrain features. Start by identifying the set of threat COAs and briefly comparing them to determine which is most likely and which is most dangerous considering the current situation and your command’s mission. Rank the remainder in order of likely adoption.Begin by developing the most dangerous or most likely threat COA. In the absence of guidance from the commander you will have to use your own judgment on which to do first. Develop the selected COA to as much detail as the available time allows before turning to the other. Next, construct an event template that focuses on identifying which of the two COAs the threat has adopted. Then turn to developing the remaining courses of action. Work each COA in the priority order you put them in when evaluating their likelihood of adoption.As each COA is finished to the determined degree of detail, incorporate NAIs associated with it into the event template. The initial structuring of the collection requirements can actually wait until after staff wargaming. The most important milestone prior to wargaming is to develop the most likely and most dangerous COAs.If the most likely COA is also the most dangerous COA, develop the second most likely or the second most dangerous COA. NEVER take just one COA into wargaming—this is not an acceptable way to abbreviate the IPB or staff planning processes. The single product that results from this approach is a far cry from the fill-blown set ofproducts described in the first scenario of Chapter 3. However, the “one-overlay product,” when developed to a quality standard, has repeatedly proven to be effective on the battlefield. This is IPB in its most elementary form, and it proves the strength of the fundamental IPB process.FM
55 QUESTIONS? 1 2 3 4 Define the Battlefield Environment Describe the Battlefield’sEffectsEvaluate thethreatDetermineThreat COAs