1. Inflation and Forest Investment Analysis What’s real?

2. What’s Inflation An increase in prices that makes a “market basket” of goods and services more expensive over time. Basket costs $1,400 in 2003 and $1,550 in 2004, a one year period. –Increase in cost is $150 –% increase, the annual rate of inflation, is $150/$1,400 = 10.7%, or ($1,550/$1,400) 1/1 – 1 =1.107 – 1 = 10.7%

3. Causes of Inflation Demand-pull inflation –Too many people chasing too few goods and services Cost-push inflation –Costs of factors of production rise, pushing up prices of goods and services Monetary inflation –Government “prints” more money, leading to demand pull inflation

4. Terminology Price with inflation included –Nominal –Current dollar –Inflated –Actual Price with inflation not included –Real –Constant dollar –Deflated –Relative

5. Nomenclature f = annual inflation rate r = real interest rate i = inflated or nominal interest rate i = (r + f + rf) I n = inflated or nominal dollar value in year n V n = future value in year n, in constant dollars of year 0

6. 15.0 154 32.5 155.4 PPI 3.3% Trend line 5.0%

7. Average Annual Rate of Inflation Rate of inflation between two points in time more than one year apart. Calculate as, f = (V n /V 0 ) 1/n -1 = (155.4/32.5) 1/48 – 1 = 4.78 0.02083 – 1 = 1.0331 – 1 = 3.31% per annum

8. Converting the value of an asset from its nominal to its real value V n = I n /(1+f) n Example – Timberland is purchased for $500 per acre in 1957. In 2005 it’s sold for $3,500 per acre. If average annual inflation over this period is 3.31%, what is the sale price of the land in terms of 1982 values? V 2005 = $3,500/1.0331 48 = $733.22 What is the real rate of return on the land? r = ($733.22/$500) 1/48 – 1 = 0.008

9. Indiana Forest Products Price Report and Trend Analysis See FNR-177-W, Table 8 –PPI for finished goods –Avg. Stand Nominal Index number Real price –Quality Stand Nominal Index number Real price

10. Indiana Average Stand, Average Log Price

13. Nominal and Real ROR’s Loan $100 now to be returned in one year. You want a 5% real rate of return, r, i.e. 5% more than inflation. If inflation will be 4% over the year you need $104 back just to keep same purchasing power of $100. $100 (1+f) n = 100 (1.04) 1 = $104 To get 5% return need to multiply $104 by (1+r) n, $104 (1.05) 1 = $109.20

14. Nominal and Real ROR’s Combining the steps, Calculate current or inflated value is, I n = V 0 (1+r) n (1+f) n = V 0 (1+ r + f + rf) n = V 0 (1+i) n, therefore, i = r + f + rf = 0.05 + 0.04 + 0.05*0.04 = 0.09 + 0.002 = 0.092, or, i = (1 + r) (1 + f) -1

15. Nominal and Real ROR’s If you know the nominal rate of return and inflation rate, solve for the real rate of return, (1 + r) (1 + f) = 1 + i 1 + r = (1 + i) / (1 + f) r = [(1 + i) / (1 + f)] - 1

16. Calculating Inflation Adjusted PV’s PV 0 = I n /(1+i) n = [V n (1+f) n ] / (1+r+f+rf) n = [V n (1+f) n ]/[(1+r) n (1+f) n ] (1+f) n = [V n (1+f) n ]/[(1+r) n (1+f) n ] = V n /(1+r) n

17. Calculating Inflation Adjusted PV’s Guidelines for computing net present value (NPV) –If future cash flows are in constant dollars compute NPV with a real interest rate, r –If future cash flows are in current dollars compute NPV with a nominal interest rate. Use same inflation rate in the cash flows and nominal interest rate

18. Warning Never mix real dollars and nominal dollars in the same equation

19. Recommendation It’s usually easier to work in real terms, that is adjust all cash flows to real values, and discount with real interest rate, r However, have to use nominal values for after-tax calculations, –Tax laws generally don’t adjust rates for inflation, and never adjust basis of assets for inflation

20. Income tax on gain from disposal of assets C = basis of asset I n = nominal value in year n T i = tax rate (5% or 15%) Tax due = T i (I n – C)

21. Example George buys timberland in 1975 for $120,000 of which $80,000 is attributable to merchantable timber. In 1980 he sells 20% of the merchant- able timber for $50,000. What is the tax on the sale? C = 0.2 * $80,000 = $16,000 I 80 = $50,000 T i = 15% Tax due = 0.15 ($50,000 - $16,000) = 0.15 * $34,000 = $5,100 After-tax gain = $50,000 - $5,100 = $44,900

22. Tax Basis Used to determine gain or loss on the “disposal” of an asset How’s basis determined? –Purchased assets – acquisition cost –Gift – basis of donor used by donee (carryover basis) –Inheritance – fair market value on deceased date of death (stepped-up basis)

23. After-Tax NPV V n – T i [V n – C/(1+f) n ] NPV = (1+r) n V n – T i V n + T i [C/(1+f) n ] NPV = (1+r) n

24. $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 Basis = $2,000 nominal V n = $4,000 I n = $8,000 Years 8 Capital gain = $6,000 Real gain = $2,000 Nominal and real gain 4

25. After-Tax NPV, Example Buy an asset for $2,000 and sell it 8 years for $8,000. Annual inflation rate is 9.05%. f = 0.0905, r = 0.05 T i = 0.30 I 8 = $4,000*1.0905 8 = $8,000 V n = $2,000 * 1.05 8 = $4,000 $4,000 – 0.30[4,000 – 2,000/(1.0905 8 )] NPV = (1.05) 8 = $2,098

26. After-Tax NPV With No Inflation $4,000 – 0.30 ($4,000 – $2,000) NPV = (1.05) 8 = $2,301 Decrease in after-tax NPV due to inflation is, $2,301 - $2,098 = $203

27. Affect of Inflation on Series Payment Formulas – annual and periodic Basic formulas assume fixed payments If payments are fixed in nominal terms must use nominal interest rate, i, in series payment formulas.formulas If nominal payments rise at exactly the inflation rate, they are fixed in real terms and must use real interest rate in formulas.