1. Evaluating Peterborough’s ‘no cold calling’ initiative using space-time Bayesian hierarchical modelling Guangquan Li *, Robert Haining +, Sylvia Richardson * and Nicky Best * + University of Cambridge * Imperial College, London

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3. Locations of the NCC areas in Peterborough 3

4. Data on “No Cold Calling” 4

5. Raw data: individual and aggregated temporal profiles Positive impact of policy? 5

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7. IDMatching criterionNo. of LSOAs 1All LSOAs in Peterborough88 2±10% burglary rate of the NCC group in 20059 3±20% burglary rate of the NCC group in 200520 4±30% burglary rate of the NCC group in both 2004 and 20058 5LSOAs containing the NCC-targeted COAs (but excluding the NCC-targeted COAs) 9 (one LSOA is outside Peterborough) 6LSOAs that had “similar” multiple deprivation scores (MDS) as those for the NCC LSOAs in 2004 46 7 Constructing the control group - areas are selected that have similar local characteristics (e.g. burglary rates; deprivation scores) to those in the NCC- targeted group. - Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) framework used to obtain reliable control trend

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