I.Forecasting ability at your National Meteorological Service (NMS) Set of NWP-models and methodologies to forecast intensities, geographical spacing and timing for critical meteorological parameters (deterministic and probabilistic) MOS-techniques and special methods to forecast weather parameters and their derivates will enhance your forecast capabilities. network of observations: initialisation, control of forecasts and warnings Radar and Satellite data in sufficient resolution and quality. Additional Observations from a voluntary network
Parameters Which weather parameters have the potential danger ? (Link closely with your civil protection agencies) The most known potential dangerous weather events: Rain and/or Flooding (River- or Flash flooding), Lightning, Snow and Ice, Wind, Fog, Storm surge, Heat spells, Cold spells, Avalanches, Forest-fire risk.
Warning colors Link alert levels to impact and damage The colors Green, Yellow, Orange and Red are used to classify levels of danger, a general advice “what to do” and typical meteorological conditions for these level. Whereas the two first elements (danger and behavioral advice) are generalized across Europe, the meteorological conditions change from one climate region to the next. Each color has a specific meaning which can be understood by all European citizens independent from their mother language.
ColourOne wordWhat to do?Damage / ImpactUsed how often? (Area approx. 300 000 km 2 ) Meteo Treshholds e.g. Rain (area + impact related) GreenWeather report usual phenomena- - -usual phenomena (Examples) yellowBe aware!caution with exposed activities exposed objects (avoidable) > 30 per year> 54 mm/12h orangeBe prepared! keep informed in detail, follow advice of authorities general damages (not avoidable) 1 to 30 per year > 80 mm/12h redTake action! follow order of authorities under all circumstances be prepared for extraordinary measures extreme damage and /or casualties extreme damage (mostly) on large areas, threatning life and properties(not avoidable, even in otherwise safe places) less then 1 year + large (5000km2) scale phenomena > 140 mm/12h
Warning definition “Tangible and understandable description of an expected damage scenario and + a clear advice what to do” It should warn in time for a certain event giving proper timing and proper geographical spacing and displacement of the phenomenon. It should mention the potential danger, such as trees possibly falling down or areas that may be flooded. And in the best case also giving handling advisories (this might not be possible for all National Meteorological Services).
Terms of lead times - Early warnings approx. 24 – 72 hours Warningsapprox 6 - 24 hours Flash warnings approx 0,5 - 6 hours
Certainties and assignment of alert levels Alert level Level of confidence GreenYellowOrangeRed 0 – 5% 5 - 30% 30 – 60% >60% [
Certainties and assignment of alert levels Alert level Level of confidence GreenYellowOrangeRed 0 – 5% 5 - 30% 30 – 60% >60% [ Set priorities by taking the cases for the highest alert levels first!
Terms for certainties No risk Unlikely Likely Certain
Issuing of warnings Use Collaborative Decision Making (CDM). CDM will lead to more balanced decisions on the issuance of warnings over time. It will diminish stress on the forecasters and will give less demotivating discussions after a false alarm. Take in experts from outside!
Issuing of warnings Even if your National Meteorological Service might not be officially authorized to issue “warnings”, the forecast information of a Meteorological Service will often be understood and considered as a “Warning”.
Media The media might give advice or contribute with seminars to find the best wording for different warning scenarios in your language, or support your work with supportive interviews in crisis situations. Mutual trust and the close relationship necessary for this type of interviews has to be established long before a crisis situation.
Presentation and dissemination of warnings You should publish your warnings on your NMS website in clear way and send them to relevant media and CP- agencies. XML files for www.meteoalarm.euwww.meteoalarm.eu SMS-services and RSS-feeds. Keep all warnings updated Withdraw your warnings at the end of a warning episode.
Preparation for a crisis situation During a crisis with large impact the stress for a National Meteorological Service will be much larger than usual. Be prepared of increased attention with the implementation of Meteoalarm scheme. Consider stress on hardware and personnel.
summary 1. Try to involve Civil Protection Authorities from the beginning of the project, according to legal framework 2. Select parameters to start with 3. Start simple and upgrade later 4. Design your criteria from the Redagno Matrix, use historical events 5. Take measures to avoid pressure on a single forecaster 6. Build cooperation with media 7. Organize yourself to deal with growing attention in crisis situations