1. Coloured noise affecting single- species populations in a spatial setting Frida Lögdberg

2. Single-patch populations Over compensatory: reddening of noise (increase in autocorrelation) will decrease extinction risk. Under compensatory: reddening of noise will increase extinction risk.

3. Two models Model 1: Landscape implicitModel 2: Landscape explicit

4. Model 1 Discrete population process (Ricker): Dispersal is a mass- action mixing process:

5. Environmental noise 1/f noise in 2D: – Time, noise color – Space, synchrony

6. Model 1 Noise affecting K: Noise affecting r (indirect):

7. Model 1: Results Over comp., noise in K: as the single-patch system. Undercomp., noise in K: hump-shaped response. Over comp., noise in r: small hump-shaped response. No interaction effects between synchrony and colour. Noise in K, under comp.Noise in K, over comp.Noise in r, over comp.

8. Model 2 Discrete population process (Ricker): Dispersal is distance dependent and follows a negative exponential distribution. Environmental noise (colour and synchrony) as in Model 1.

9. Model 2 Contrast = 1 Contrast = 3 Contrast = 5 Continuity = 0Continuity = 1Continuity = 5 Landscapes: generated with spectral method. Landscape characteristics: Continuity Contrast

10. Model 2: Results Contrast = 1 Contrast = 3 Contrast = 5 Continuity = 0Continuity = 1Continuity = 5 Pop. dynamics is over compen- satory. Noise enters in K.

11. Model 2: Results Contrast = 1 Contrast = 3 Contrast = 5 Continuity = 0Continuity = 1Continuity = 5 Pop. dynamics is under compen- satory. Noise enters in K.

12. Model 2: Results Contrast = 1 Contrast = 3 Contrast = 5 Continuity = 0Continuity = 1Continuity = 5 Pop. dynamics is over compen- satory. Noise enters in r.

13. Conclusions No complex interaction effects between any of landscape, synchrony and colour. Aggregation versus random landscape affects the extinction risk quantitatively. Men ar du tydlig effekt/markerad effekt Population dynamics matter, also when increasing the complexity by adding space.

14. Implications To determine extinction risk one have to consider: dynamics, colour, synchrony, continuity, contrast. – Besides mean and varinace of resources. On the other hand most of these have the same effect regardless of the others If you want to improve the survival of the population You should: – Redder the noise or whiter the noise (be careful with dynamics) – Reduce synchrony – Increase contrast – Reduce continuity – (and of course increase man and reduce variance) I f you have to choose: Which is the best to do? Depends on what system, what parameters value you have.