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NBA Statistical Analysis Econ 240A. Intro. to Econometrics. Fall 2010. Group 3 Lu Mao Ying Fan Matthew Koson Ryan Knefel Eric Johnson Tyler Nelson Grop.

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Presentation on theme: "NBA Statistical Analysis Econ 240A. Intro. to Econometrics. Fall 2010. Group 3 Lu Mao Ying Fan Matthew Koson Ryan Knefel Eric Johnson Tyler Nelson Grop."— Presentation transcript:

1 NBA Statistical Analysis Econ 240A. Intro. to Econometrics. Fall 2010. Group 3 Lu Mao Ying Fan Matthew Koson Ryan Knefel Eric Johnson Tyler Nelson Grop 3 | NBA Statistical AnalysisGroup 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

2 What factors determine winning percentage? – Attendance – Field Goal % – Rebounds for & against – Salary – Offensive turnovers – Previous season win % – Points per game for & against Goal Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

3 Spreadsheet Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis http://basketballreference.com/ http://content.usatoday.com/sports/basketball/nba/salaries/default.aspx http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=17840 YearTeamwin_pctsalaryattendppg_defppg_offfgpreb_defreb_offto_offprev_win_pct 9/10denver0.6467459572917995102.4106.50.46842.341.413.90.659 8/9denver0.6596706863117223100.9104.30.4741.241.615.30.61 7/8denver0.618117720217364107110.70.46945.444.114.40.549 6/7denver0.5496500023017230103.7105.40.46542.343.416.50.537 5/6denver0.5375384446017135100.1100.30.46141.941.314.80.598 4/5denver0.598457164821765797.599.50.45941.742.014.90.524 3/4denver0.524360047311759796.197.20.44342.942.314.60.207 2/3denver0.207409854801482692.484.20.41140.342.417.40.329 1/2denver0.32953687498154609892.20.42443.041.813.80.489

4 Significant variables – Points per game for & against – Attendance – Field Goal % – Rebounds for – Offensive turnovers Insignificant variables – Rebounds against – Previous season win % – Salary Executive Summary Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

5 Figures 1 & 2 1 Smallest = 23097398 (Charlotte Bobcats) Q1 = 51659402.5 Median = 58937828.5 Q3 = 67526621.25 Largest = 104321823 (Portland Trailblazers) IQR = 15867218.75 Few Outliers 2 Normally distributed Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

6 Figures 3 & 4 3 Smallest = 0.146 (New Jersey Nets) Q1 = 0.402 Median = 0.512 Q3 = 0.61 Largest = 0.817 (Dallas Mavericks) IQR = 0.208 No outliers 4 Normally distributed Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

7 Figures 5 & 6

8 Figures 7 & 8 Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Figures 7 & 8

9 Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

10 Table 1 Overpowering variables Points per game Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:05 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY1.32E-101.80E-100.7312840.4653 ATTEND1.52E-061.14E-061.3320190.1841 PPG_DEF-0.0321020.000823-39.015300.0000 PPG_OFF0.0313290.00112327.909070.0000 FGP0.1665360.2561540.6501390.5162 REB_DEF-0.0002790.000928-0.3007630.7638 REB_OFF0.0022260.0016211.3735610.1708 TO_OFF-0.0029910.002117-1.4125320.1591 PREV_WIN_PCT0.0062410.0189250.3297740.7419 C0.4246140.1267053.3511900.0009 R-squared0.948402 Mean dependent var0.502790 Adjusted R-squared0.946522 S.D. dependent var0.147270 S.E. of regression0.034056 Akaike info criterion-3.883459 Sum squared resid0.286481 Schwarz criterion-3.745363 Log likelihood509.0245 F-statistic504.4499 Durbin-Watson stat2.071517 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

11 Table 2 Regression omitting points per game for and against Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:05 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY-1.18E-094.70E-10-2.5170080.0125 ATTEND1.05E-052.98E-063.5289720.0005 FGP3.5583060.4086438.7076180.0000 REB_DEF-0.0033160.002240-1.4800150.1401 REB_OFF0.0271990.0036827.3866820.0000 TO_OFF-0.0344600.005153-6.6871130.0000 PREV_WIN_PCT0.2881260.0462696.2271540.0000 C-1.8671370.274358-6.8054790.0000 R-squared0.629822 Mean dependent var0.502790 Adjusted R-squared0.619416 S.D. dependent var0.147270 S.E. of regression0.090853 Akaike info criterion-1.928515 Sum squared resid2.055311 Schwarz criterion-1.818038 Log likelihood255.8142 F-statistic60.52146 Durbin-Watson stat1.846513 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

12 Table 3 Regression omitting rebounds against Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:15 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY-1.19E-094.71E-10-2.5188180.0124 ATTEND1.12E-052.95E-063.7988030.0002 FGP3.6183870.4075898.8775470.0000 REB_OFF0.0272140.0036917.3732470.0000 TO_OFF-0.0337600.005144-6.5635250.0000 PREV_WIN_PCT0.2920580.0463036.3075560.0000 C-2.0561850.243387-8.4482280.0000 R-squared0.626566 Mean dependent var0.502790 Adjusted R-squared0.617604 S.D. dependent var0.147270 S.E. of regression0.091069 Akaike info criterion-1.927539 Sum squared resid2.073391 Schwarz criterion-1.830871 Log likelihood254.6887 F-statistic69.91040 Durbin-Watson stat1.843407 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

13 Table 4 Checking if salary endogenous Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: SALARY Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:17 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 260 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. WIN_PCT197933015569105.3.5541260.0005 C508866582919464.17.430140.0000 R-squared0.046675 Mean dependent var60848094 Adjusted R-squared0.042980 S.D. dependent var13468311 S.E. of regression13175697 Akaike info criterion35.63331 Sum squared resid4.48E+16 Schwarz criterion35.66070 Log likelihood-4630.330 F-statistic12.63181 Durbin-Watson stat0.896121 Prob(F-statistic)0.000451

14 Table 5 Checking if Attendance is endogenous Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: ATTEND Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:19 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. WIN_PCT6966.419828.57228.4077390.0000 C13864.58434.034031.943530.0000 R-squared0.217047 Mean dependent var17367.22 Adjusted R-squared0.213977 S.D. dependent var2202.147 S.E. of regression1952.379 Akaike info criterion17.99924 Sum squared resid9.72E+08 Schwarz criterion18.02686 Log likelihood-2310.902 F-statistic70.69008 Durbin-Watson stat1.198107 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

15 Table 6 Checking if previous win percentage is endogenous Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: PREV_WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:20 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 260 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. WIN_PCT0.5928660.05067511.699480.0000 C0.2029270.0265657.6389050.0000 R-squared0.346633 Mean dependent var0.501300 Adjusted R-squared0.344101 S.D. dependent var0.148033 S.E. of regression0.119889 Akaike info criterion-1.396843 Sum squared resid3.708311 Schwarz criterion-1.369454 Log likelihood183.5896 F-statistic136.8778 Durbin-Watson stat2.075916 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

16 Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:48 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY-8.17E-105.02E-10-1.6261130.1052 ATTEND1.56E-053.08E-065.0694550.0000 FGP4.2483090.42459910.005460.0000 REB_OFF0.0294610.0039477.4636980.0000 TO_OFF-0.0430360.005296-8.1260030.0000 C-2.2551810.259309-8.6968710.0000 R-squared0.567137 Mean dependent var0.502790 Adjusted R-squared0.558515 S.D. dependent var0.147270 S.E. of regression0.097853 Akaike info criterion-1.787642 Sum squared resid2.403353 Schwarz criterion-1.704784 Log likelihood235.7119 F-statistic65.77213 Durbin-Watson stat1.478475 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000 Table 7 Dropped previous win percentage

17 Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:42 Sample: 1 260 Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. ATTEND1.47E-053.04E-064.8392870.0000 FGP4.0307760.4042879.9700800.0000 REB_OFF0.0292890.0039597.3987830.0000 TO_OFF-0.0424640.005302-8.0097220.0000 C-2.1919140.257209-8.5219150.0000 R-squared0.562577 Mean dependent var0.502790 Adjusted R-squared0.555634 S.D. dependent var0.147270 S.E. of regression0.098171 Akaike info criterion-1.784944 Sum squared resid2.428672 Schwarz criterion-1.715896 Log likelihood234.3653 F-statistic81.02543 Durbin-Watson stat1.422612 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000 Table 8 Dropped salary Final regression Win_pct=1.47E-05*Attend+4.030776*FGP+.029289*Reb_Off-.042464*TO_Off-2.191914

18 2011 Highest Win Percentage L.A. Lakers – 69.5% Conclusion Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

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