1. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin1 State of the Internet & Challenges ahead How is the Internet likely to evolve during the next decade Olivier.Martin@ictconsulting.ch

2. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin2 Disclaimer The opinions expressed in this talk are independent of my former affiliation with CERN and, by no means, represent the past and/or current position of CERN. This presentation is derived from an article with the same title written following a presentation given at the NEC’2007 conference in September 2007 in Varna (Bulgaria) This article is available from: http://www.ictconsulting.ch/reports/NEC2007- OHMartin.doc http://www.ictconsulting.ch/reports/NEC2007- OHMartin.doc

3. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin3 Outline State of the Internet Research & Education Commercial IPV6 Deployment Status & Issues Internet Governance Ongoing Internet Rescue Initiatives The “clean-slate” temptation Conclusions

4. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin4 Opening Remarks “La critique est aisée, mais l’art est difficile” (Philippe Néricault, 1732) “Criticism is easy, but art is difficult” However, criticisms may help to establishing the truth and to advancing the state of the art better than hypocrisy, complacency and self- satisfaction (Olivier Martin)

5. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin5 Main Sources TERENA Networking Conference 2007 RIPE55 NANOG41 CCIRN 2007 IEPG 2007 Australian IPv6 Summit OECD Workshops IAB Workshops CircleID Posts (Geoff Houston) “Living the Future” (Dirk Trossen (Nokia/BT)

6. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin6 Acknowledments Bill St.Arnaud (Canarie) Brian Carpenter (University of Auckland) Steve Goldstein (ICANN)

7. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin7 State of the Internet Today’s Internet is plagued by a number of very serious “ills” that are threatening, if not its existence, at least its long-term stability as listed below: IPv4 address space exhaustion and lack of significant IPv6 rollout raising serious doubts about the operational future of IPv6! Routing stability and Continuous Growth of Routing Table due to multi- homing, in particular. Domain Name System (DNS) stability: DNS overload, often due to misconfigured servers. Also, the DNS was designed to reference hosts not multiple objects as commonly found on many Web pages. Security: Spamming Phishing (fraudulent activities, e.g. stealing credit card numbers, passwords) Identity theft DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service Attacks)

8. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin8 Internet World Statistics

9. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin9 GEANT (the good things first) Undoubtedly an outstanding organizational achievement: 30 NRENs, 25 PoPs, 11600 km of fibre, Worldwide High Speed Intercontinental connections, etc. “Canonical” Internet infrastructure offering a wide range of services that, apart from VPN, very few, if any, commercial ISP provide. : Multicast Quality of Service IPv6 VPNs Near real-time Bandwidth on Demand (BoD) Not clear whether these advanced features are much used by the GEANT community!

10. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin10 GEANT (the more questionable aspects) Is it technically state of the art or “off the shelves”? Is dark fiber really the best choice in the medium to long term? Why are traffic statistics not publicly available unlike Internet2? What is the sense of providing commercial Internet access to a subset of the NRENs? Why is there so much emphasis on Bandwidth on Demand? Is it really BoD or just fast-provisioning? In any case, who really needs it as the largest user groups (e.g. DEISA, LHC, eVLBI) have essentially static needs! Whereas much of the available capacity is actually provided as static P2P circuits: LHC & DEISA are using close to 95% of the bandwidth Is it a return to private, mission oriented, networks?

11. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin11 GEANT P2P Circuit Orders Source David West (DANTE) CCIRN Presentation (August 2007)

12. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin12 GEANT Applications The largest Grid has been deployed over GEANT under the auspices of the EU funded EGEE However, Grid computing is far from holding all its original promises E.g. it fails to work seamlessly in heterogeneous computing environments, i.e. mixture of operating systems and system architecture EGEE-III expected to start in May 2008 will be organized on a National basis, i.e. leveraging on the National Grids, in preparation for the transition to the European Grid Initiative (EGI) to be launched later Will “Cloud Computing” replace or complement Grid technology?

13. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin13 GEANT Evolution Without a technological breakthrough like, for example, “Coherent Optical Technology”, that would allow the scaling of bandwidth from 10Gb/s to 100Gb/s, GEANT is likely to continue to “degenerate” into a set of “private networks” for the “virtual communities” with the heaviest bandwidth requirements.

14. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin14 The fallacy of bandwidth on demand (Bill St.Arnaud) “ Bandwidth on Demand smells the bad days of “circuit switched networks” “Around the world, many National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) are focusing on various bandwidth-on- demand schemes for the future Internet architecture that will be used primarily for big science and cyber-infrastructure applications…” “These same arguments were used to justify the need for ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network), ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode), GMPLS (Generalized Multiprotocol Label Switching), and QoS (Quality of Service)…” Ergo, you needed an “intelligent” network to anticipate the applications demand for bandwidth.” This trend bears many similarities with the CONS/CLNP war back in the late 1980’s before Internet was universally adopted

15. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin15 The fallacy of bandwidth on demand (2) “The fact is, no evidence exists yet that big science traffic volumes, or for that matter Internet traffic volumes, are growing anywhere near what was forecast, even just a few short years ago.” As evidence of this lack of demand for bandwidth, one only need to look at University of Minnesota Digital Technology Center director Andrew Odlyzko’s MINTS Website, which tracks traffic volume on various commercial Internet and NRENs around the world.Andrew Odlyzko’sMINTS Traffic volume growth rates on R&E networks have declined significantly over the past decade. For example, Internet2’s annual growth is less than 7 percent per year, whereas commercial networks growth rates vary from 25-50 percent per year.Internet2

16. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin16 R&E Networks Situation in the USA Internet2 and NLR (National Lambda Rail) failed to merge for the second time! Is it a good or a bad thing? At the scale of the USA having two complementary national backbones does not seem to be completely overdue…. Are the USA showing a new way forward or is it just a temporary “phenomena”?

17. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin17 Commercial Internet (1) Commercial Internet is booming with traffic growth rates around 50% or more per year due to: Peer to Peer applications Napster, KaZaA, CAN, Gnutella, JXTA Video-on-demand, Video-sharing IPTV, TriplePlay, Skype Social networking & Web 2.0 Sophisticated Search Engines and Content Distribution Techniques

18. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin18 Commercial Internet (2) However, it is plagued by many problems: security, routing stability, DNS overload, Last mile bandwidth constraints, exhaustion of IPv4 and extensive use of NATs, Lack of QoS is particularly annoying for real-time use (e.g. Video, Telephony, Conferencing), No clear sign of migration to IPv6 “The path of least resistance for the industry appears to be that of standardizing NATs” (Geoff Houston) [1] [1] Online PhotosOnline Photos [2] [2] Sharing PhotosSharing Photos [3] [3] Social BookmarkingSocial Bookmarking [4] [4] BlogBlog [5] [5] Really Simple Syndication (RSS)Really Simple Syndication (RSS) [6] [6] Hybrid Web ApplicationHybrid Web Application [7] [7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruby_on_Railshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruby_on_Rails [8] [8] http://www.ietf.org/html.charters/hip-charter.htmlhttp://www.ietf.org/html.charters/hip-charter.html [9] [9] http://cs.shenker.net/files/294lecture6b.pdfhttp://cs.shenker.net/files/294lecture6b.pdf [10] [10] http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/oreilly/tim/news/2005/09/30/what-is-web-20.htmlhttp://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/oreilly/tim/news/2005/09/30/what-is-web-20.html [11] [11] http://cfp.mit.edu/events/slides/jan06/Dirk-Trossen.pdfhttp://cfp.mit.edu/events/slides/jan06/Dirk-Trossen.pdf

19. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin19 IPv4 Address Report (1/4/08) Projected IANA Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: 03-Apr-2011 Projected RIR Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: 27-Jun-2012 A rough estimate of the additional time provided by using the unadvertised address pool is 19-Jul-2015.

20. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin20 The sad IPv6 saga The original dual-stack migration strategy and IPv6 specifications RFCs date back to the 1994-1995 period (RFC1671, RFC1752, RFC1883, RFC1884) Some improvements made in 2000-2001 RFC2766 (NAT-PT) (Feb. 2000) RFC3056 (6to4) (Feb. 2001) Some recent developments RFC2766 re-classified from “Operational” to “Historical” by RFC4966 in July 2007 Why did it take so long to the IETF to identify critical issues with RFC2766? New drafts RFC tackling the issue of v4 to v6 and back communications issued at the end of 2007 Problem statement and analysis of IPv6 IPv4 Translators (NAT64) by A. Gagnolo, Huawei Labs at UC3M IANA about to allow an IPv4 trading model to be developed Will it accelerate the deployment of IPv6 or have the opposite effect?

21. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin21 The false IPv6 selling arguments To a large extent the strongest proponents of IPv6 have weakened the case for IPv6 by using false arguments such as: Restoration of the “end to end” principle Restoration of Address transparency Multicast Better QoS (flows) Embedded IPSEC Auto-configuration, Plug & Play, etc

22. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin22 Internet Governance

23. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin23 Internet Governance (1) ICANN IANA (technical) IPv6 availability in 6 out of the 13 root servers What will be the effect of the recent proposal to create an IPv4 “trading model”? Slowdown the transition to IPv6 or accelerate it? ASO Working with the RIRs to facilitate IPv6 adoption IDN (Internationalized Domain Names) Tests well underway for 11 non-roman Top Level Domains (TLD)

24. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin24 Internet Governance (2) ISOC IETF Although the consensus has been resisting quite well, it is no longer working as smoothly as before because of the many conflicting commercial interests at stake. IAB The guardian of the Internet orthodoxy Running workshops: State of the network layer (1999) Routing and Addressing (2006) Unwanted Traffic (2006) IGF Apart from the agreement on a multi-stakeholder structure, nothing very concrete has yet happened!

25. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin25 Internet Governance (3) OECD’s STI (Science, Industry & Technology) has been running a number of excellent workshops The future of the Internet (2006) Social & Economic Factors shaping the Future of the Internet (joint with NSF in January 2007) Incremental versus clean-slate NATs versus IPv6 Fiber investment & Policy Challenges (April 2008)

26. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin26 The “clean-slate” design temptation GENI (NSF) Experimental, reconfigurable infrastructure allowing multiple slices to be allocated to different user groups to validate their new architectural proposals NeTS (NSF) FIND (Future Internet Design) NOSS (Networks of Sensors Systems) WN (Wireless Networks) NBD (Networking Broadly Defined)

27. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin27 Clean-slate design (Cont.) GENI Research Plan A set of very interesting ideas like buffer-less routers DONA (Data Oriented Network Architecture) Based on publish/subscribe paradigm, self-certifying names, Stanford MIT’s Communication Future Program (CFP) See Dirk Trossen slides on Web 2.0 and Net 2.0 European Union (FP7) UCL

28. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin28 Web1.0/2.0 Services & Functionality Comparison Web1.0 Web2.0 Ofoto (online photos)Flickr (sharing photos) Bookmarks in browserSocial bookmarking (del.icio.us) Britannica OnlineWikipedia Personal websitesBlogging [ Microsoft Outlook (proprietary)Zimbra (open source) Browsing to websitesSubscribing to and receiving RSS feeds (Podcasting) PublishingParticipation Content created by serviceContent created by the users Read-only : All Rights ReservedAdd / Modify / Delete : Some Rights Reserved Directories (taxonomy)Tagging (“folksonomy”). Also TrackBacks. One serviceMashups (housingmaps.com, craigslist)housingmaps.comcraigslist Some API’sOpen API’s, Ruby on Rails [ The service is staticThe service improves the more it is used, data added

29. NEC’2007 VARNA (Bulgaria) Content Scope

30. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin30 Net 1.0/2.0 Envisioned Functionality comparison Net 1.0Net 2.0 Mobile IP add-onLocator-identifier separation (HIP ], M-FARA [....) ] Static end-user peering Personal Broadband. i.e., BB access based on user’s choice, dependent on use, location, time & other context Licensed Spectrum and ISP mentalityOpen spectrum, cognitive radios -> virtually unlimited bandwidth Intra-domain, intra-technology accessInter-domain & inter-technology in edge devices Administrative IP domainsRegions based on geography, trust, administration… Routers in the networkMobile devices acting as (ad-hoc) routers Management domains based on different technologiesKnowledge plane as inherent part of Internet architecture Several competing (if at all) location techniquesUniversal location support Little network information available to edge device Providing network-level context seen as differentiator and inherently supported Scales to hundreds of millionsScales to billions and more (“Internet of Things”, e.g. RFIDs) Intra-domain QoS (at best)Full E2E (inter-provider) QoS

31. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin31 EU’s Future Network Projects (1)

32. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin32 EU’s Future Network Projects (2)

33. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin33 Extending the use of the e- infrastructure, the ERINA study (1) “e-Infrastructure” refers to a new way of conducting scientific research by the creation of a new environment for academic and industrial research in which virtual communities have shared access to unique or distributed scientific facilities regardless of their type and location in the world.” The e-Infrastructure strategy is made up of three layers: High Throughput Network Computing Infrastructure Scientific Data Repository

34. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin34 Extending the use of the e- infrastructure, the ERINA study (2) The European Commission has already established a high-capacity and high-speed pan-European backbone for all researches in Europe (GÉANT) and, on top of it, a state of the art, Grid computing infrastructure (EGEE) for specific communities. The European Commission plans to pursue and generalize this strategy. The third layer of this e-Infrastructure strategy is the sharing, federation and curation of high-volumes of scientific data for distributed access and sharing between scientific communities.

35. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin35 Extending the use of the e- infrastructure, the ERINA study (3) One of the aims of the European Commission is to extend the e-Infrastructure from e-Science to other sectors like, e-Culture, e-Learning, e-Commerce, e- Government and e-Health. The ERINA study analyses and provides recommendations on the mechanisms to bridge leading edge ICT infrastructures and innovation by extending the use of Research Infrastructures to e- Health, e-Learning and e-Government domains. Let us hope that this layered approach that bears similarities with the construction of the Babel tower will terminate better!

36. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin36 Conclusions The Internet has ossified IPv6 looks “almost” unavoidable but is by no means “guaranteed” to happen! clean-slate solutions are unlikely to be viable before 7-15 years the related work may be dangerous as it could create a political delusion even worse than the “IPv6 cures everything” delusion. A gradual step-wise evolution appear to be much safer The instability of the Internet routing system is preoccupying as well as the increasing lack of “network neutrality”, copyright infringements, etc.

37. 6/4/2015Olivier Martin37 Additional slides Global Crossing converged architecture The Class A, B & C users in the Netherlands (Cees de Laat) GEANT2 Topology

38. Global Crossing’s converged IP network architecture – one network, any service IP PBX SIP IP Phones Enterprise IP VPN Global MPLS 2547bis Network Session Border Controller PSTN IP On-Net Call Off-Net Call GSX Internet IP Gateway IPSec iMPLS Option A, B, C Hybrid TDM / IP Audio Conferencing  DSL  Dialup  Wi Fi VoIP VoIP Services VoIP On-Net Plus VoIP Ready-Access VoIP Outbound VoIP Local Services VoIP Toll Free VoIP Community Peering VoIP Integrity Service Managed VoIP Mobile IP Connect Remote VPN Access IP Video Video Endpoint Management Ready-Access Video® Managed Solutions Professional Services Fully Managed IP VPN Managed Network Services Managed Security Application Performance Management eMLPPP CRTP Packet Interleaving Access Methods ATM, Frame Relay, PL, DSL, Ethernet, SONET, SDH True multicast capabilities RIP2, BGP, Static OSPF & GRE Tunnels IPv4 & IPv6 IPVPN/ DIA Managed Security Services Fully Managed DIA & Security Services Customer Portal Visibility & Control

40. Connect. Communicate. Collaborate GÉANT2 Connect. Communicate. Collaborate 25 POPs 11600 km of fibre + 140 ILA sites 50+ x (own) 10G lambdas Additional leased 10 and 2.5 Gbps circuits Router tender underway NREN accesses at up to 10Gbps (+ backup) + P2P connections to other R&E networks: Abilene, ESnet, CA*net4, SINET, TENET, RedCLARA, EUMEDCONNECT, TEIN2

41. NEC’2007 VARNA (Bulgaria) Web2.0