2. Principles of Systems Dynamics Modeling and Analysis Pål I. Davidsen pal.davidsen@geog.uib.no Department of Geography, University of Bergen, N-5020 Bergen, fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134 Pål I. Davidsen pal.davidsen@geog.uib.no Department of Geography, University of Bergen, N-5020 Bergen, fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134

3. Knowledge elicitation Problem identification Problem solving Management Knowledge dissemination Knowledge dissemination System Dynamics Backlog Backlog Management

4. University of Bergen HIA, NTNU, BI University of Bergen HIA, NTNU, BI L.B.S., L.S.E., Leeds & Portsmouth Scranton & Sunderland L.B.S., L.S.E., Leeds & Portsmouth Scranton & Sunderland Istanbul Mannheim & Stuttgart Cottbus & Mainz Mannheim & Stuttgart Cottbus & Mainz Bologna, Bocconi Carla Cattaneo & Palermo Bologna, Bocconi Carla Cattaneo & Palermo Sevilla & Pamplona Sevilla & Pamplona Lisboa & Algarve Lisboa & Algarve Lugano Utrecht

5. Structure Events Behavior

6. Structure (underlying causes) Structure (underlying causes) Events (symptoms) Events (symptoms) Behavior (dynamics) Behavior (dynamics)

7. Structure (underlying causes) Structure (underlying causes) Events (symptoms) Events (symptoms) Behavior (dynamics) Behavior (dynamics) Decision Making

8. Structure (underlying causes) Structure (underlying causes) Events (symptoms) Events (symptoms) Behavior (dynamics) Behavior (dynamics) Decision Making Policy Design

9. Structure (underlying causes) Structure (underlying causes) Events (symptoms) Events (symptoms) Behavior (dynamics) Behavior (dynamics) Policy Design

10. Structure Behavior Policy Design

11. Structure Behavior Policy Design

12. Structure Behavior Policy Design Structure Behavior Policy Design

13. Structure Behavior Policy Design Structure Behavior Policy Design Structure Behavior Policy Design

14. Structure Behavior Policy Design Structure Behavior Policy Design Structure Behavior Policy Design Strategy Development

15. Point of Departure: Problem behavior Point of Departure: Problem behavior

16. t

17. t Identify: Underlying Problem Structure Identify: Underlying Problem Structure

18. t

19. Identify: New Solution Structure Identify: New Solution Structure t

20. t

21. t Goal: Desired behavior

22. t t

23. t t New Solution Structure New Solution Structure Underlying Problem Structure Underlying Problem Structure Desired behavior Problem behavior Hypothesis Development & Testing

24. Strategy Development => System dynamics a problem-oriented multidisciplinary approach => System dynamics a problem-oriented multidisciplinary approach

25. t Underlying Problem Structure Underlying Problem Structure Problem behavior The model should generate the original behavior for the right reasons

26. t New Solution Structure New Solution Structure Desired behavior => The model will generate the desired behavior for the right reasons

27. t The model should explain not “just” predict t

28. t t The model must constitute a causal feedback theory

29. Strategy Development Behavior Structure

30. Behavior Structure

31. Behavior Structure

32. Behavior Structure

33. Behavior Structure

34. Behavior System Dynamics: Identify, understand, and utilize the relationship:

35. Structure Behavior System Dynamics: Identify, understand, and utilize the relationship: in complex, dynamic systems

36. S S D D Complexity Simplicity

37. S S D D Realism Abstraction

38. Realism Abstraction It is better to find …

39. than … a satisfying solution to a problem that exists … … a satisfying solution to a problem that exists … … an optimal solution to a non-existing problem … an optimal solution to a non-existing problem

40. Challenge: potential shifts in Domin. structure Domin. structure Challenge: potential shifts in Domin. structure Domin. structure tt Behavior

41. Maintaining Realism

42. We must not only model explicitly “the plumbing of the system”

43. Make observations Form expectations Establish attitudes Act on incentives (decide) We need to describe how we;

44. Actual Observed Confirmed Projected Desired Expected magnitudes We need to differentiate between;

45. Petroleum Exploration PerceivedProductivity ReportedProductivity EstimatedProductivity ActualProductivity Exploration Efforts DesiredDiscoveries EstimatedDiscoveries IdealDiscoveries

46. Petroleum Exploration PerceivedProductivity Nominal Productivity Productivity ReportedProductivity EstimatedProductivity ActualProductivity DesiredProductivity ProductivityIncentives Exploration Efforts DesiredDiscoveries EstimatedDiscoveries IdealDiscoveries

47. Petroleum Exploration PerceivedProductivity Nominal Productivity Productivity ReportedProductivity EstimatedProductivity ActualProductivity DesiredProductivity ProductivityIncentives Exploration Efforts DesiredDiscoveries EstimatedDiscoveries IdealDiscoveries

48. Structure Behavior System Dynamics: Identify, understand, and utilize the relationship: in complex, dynamic systems

49. Complexity Accumulation Feedback Non-linearity

50. Complexity a synergy of Complexity a synergy of Feedbacks Non-linearities Accumulations ≡ Latencies / Delays Accumulations ≡ Latencies / Delays

51. Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays Complexity … the origin of dynamics

52. Instantaneous causality Causality playing out over time

53. 0 t 01 t 01 In a causality that spans time nothing happens instantaneously In a causality that spans time nothing happens instantaneously

54. 0 t 01 t 01 Effects unfold over time Effects unfold over time 90 0

55. Accumulations distribute and form the effects of a change across a system (in space) over time

56. Inventory Production Rate Shipment Rate A first order accumulation process (building up distance)

57. Manpower Inventory Hiring & Training Rate Production Rate Shipment Rate Attrition Rate A second order accumulation process (building up speed)

58. Manpower Inventory Trainers Hiring & Training Rate Production Rate Shipment Rate Attrition Rate Training Cap. Building Rate Training Cap. Decay Rate A third order accumulation process (building up accell.)

59. Manpower Inventory Trainers Hiring & Training Rate Production Rate Shipment Rate Attrition Rate Training Cap. Building Rate Training Cap. Decay Rate

60. Manpower Inventory Trainers Hiring & Training Rate Production Rate Shipment Rate Attrition Rate Training Cap. Building Rate Training Cap. Decay Rate

61. Manpower Inventory Trainers Hiring & Training Rate Production Rate Shipment Rate Attrition Rate Training Cap. Building Rate Training Cap. Decay Rate

62. Manpower Inventory Trainers Hiring & Training Rate Production Rate Shipment Rate Attrition Rate Training Cap. Building Rate Training Cap. Decay Rate

63. Manpower Inventory Trainers Hiring & Training Rate Production Rate Shipment Rate Attrition Rate Training Cap. Building Rate Training Cap. Decay Rate

64. Multiple accumulations introduce intransparency that leads us to focus on short-term problems while ignoring long-term benefits

65. Multiple accumulations introduce intransparency that leads us to focus on short-term benefits while ignoring long-term problems

66. Gain Additional Complexity Reputation Loss

67. Gain Indicated Rep. > Reputation Reputation Loss Indicated Reputation Indicated Reputation Time to Gain Reputation Time to Gain Reputation

68. Gain Indicated Rep. < Reputation Reputation Loss Indicated Reputation Indicated Reputation Time to Loose Reputation Time to Loose Reputation

69. Gain Additional Complexity Reputation Loss Indicated Reputation Indicated Reputation Time to Loose Reputation Time to Loose Reputation Time to Gain Reputation Time to Gain Reputation

70. Latencies and the time over which the effects play out are often misperceived more often underestimated than overestimated

71. Stocks + Flows

72. Backlog Order Placement Rate Order Execution Rate

73. Inventory Production Rate Delivery Rate

74. Cash Revenue Rate Payment Rate

75. Personnel Hiring Rate Attrition Rate

76. Capital Acquisition Rate Discard Rate

77. Payment Rate Depreciation Rate Book Value Capital Acquisition Rate Discard Rate

78. Payment Rate Depreciation Rate Book Value Capital Acquisition Rate Discard Rate Price

79. Payment Rate Depreciation Rate Book Value Capital Acquisition Rate Discard Rate Price Annual Fraction Depreciated Annual Fraction Discarded

80. Identified Reserves Discovery Rate Production Rate

81. Depreciation Rate Book Value Identified Reserves Discovery Rate Production Rate Exploration Expenditures

82. Depreciation Rate Book Value Identified Reserves Discovery Rate Production Rate Exploration Expenditures Cum Production Recovery Technology Total Recoverable Resource Remaining (CumulativeProduction + IdentifiedReserves)*FractionRecoverable - CumulativeProduction)

83. Depreciation Rate Book Value Identified Reserves Discovery Rate Production Rate Unit Exploration Expenditures Exploration Expenditures Total Recoverable Resource Remaining Recovery Technology Cum Production

84. Depreciation Rate Book Value Identified Reserves Discovery Rate Production Rate Unit Exploration Expenditures Exploration Expenditures Total Recoverable Resource Remaining Recovery Technology Cum Production

85. No stocks, no state

86. No flows, no dynamics

87. Stocks act as buffers they de-couple flows

88. Stocks integrate flows

89. Debt Import RateExport Rate Stocks integrate flows

90. Debt Import RateExport Rate

91. Debt - Export Rate Net Import Rate = Import Rate The Debt Model

92. Debt 0 t 01 t 01 - Export Rate Import Rate

93. Debt 0 t 01 t 01 - Export Rate Import Rate

94. Debt 0 t 01 t 01 Stocks constitute delays - Export Rate Import Rate

95. Just like driving a car....... Capital Personnel Shipments Inventory Exp. Demand Attrition Recruitment Acquisitions Phase-outs Production Adj. Exp. Demand Market Demand

96. Complexity Dynamics Delay Feedback Non-linearity

97. Delay Distributes the effect of our efforts through the system over time

98. Price - + DemandSupply Perceived Shortages + - Delay distributes the effect of our efforts through the system over time Delay distributes the effect of our efforts through the system over time

99. Price - + DemandSupply Perceived Shortages + - Delay obscures the relationship between cause and effect Delay obscures the relationship between cause and effect

100. Price - + DemandSupply Perceived Shortages + - => It is difficult to … => It is difficult to …

101. Price + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply identify problems (what are their causes) -

102. Price + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply take effective actions (what do they cause) -

103. Price - + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply … and feedback... + … does not make it less difficult

104. Price - + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply A note on... + … econometrics

105. Price - + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply A note on... + … the significance of the time horizon

106. Management from a System Dynamics perspective ensure short- and long-term sustainability

108. Complexity Feedback Non-linearity Accumulation

109. Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays Complexity From the origin of dynamics to…

110. Feedback Complexity Accumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay Accumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay … circular causality

111. Circular causality lead us to reason in circles: Cause becomes effect and effect becomes cause

112. This is why we need to say Some change in B leads to a change in A … which over a period of time leads to a change in B A B

113. Price - + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply Speculative Demand + + Speculative Supply - - -- ++ +

114. Price - + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply + Speculative Demand + + Speculative Supply - - --

115. Price - + Perceived Shortages DemandSupply + Speculative Demand + + Speculative Supply - - -- + -

116. More Feedback (FblExmpls)FblExmpls

117. Management from a System Dynamics perspective

118. Management from a System Dynamics perspective Strengthen favorable loops

119. Management from a System Dynamics perspective Strengthen favorable loops Weaken unfavorable loops

120. NOTE: What loops are favorable or unfavorable varies from one point in time to the next because of …

121. Price - + + Perceived Shortages Demand - Supply + Speculative Demand + + Speculative Supply - - -- ++

122. Challenge: What loops are favorable or unfavorable varies from one point in time to the next because …

123. Effects take time Effects feed back... not only do

124. Effects take time Effects feed back Effects also synergize

125. Feedbacks Non-linearities Complexity a composite of Complexity a composite of Accumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay Accumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay

126. Complexity Feedback Non-linearity Accumulation

127. Non-linearity causes the response to a change in a variable to be conditioned by the state of the system… Non-linearity causes the response to a change in a variable to be conditioned by the state of the system…

128. Efficiency in Exploration 50 25 00.51 Fract. Total Resource Remaining Undiscovered 0...(1) by the value of the variable itself..

129. Nominal Rework Effort Needed Per Error 0.6 0.2 0.250.751.0 0.4 0.50 % of Job Completed D e s i g n C o d i n g 0 0

130. % Active Errors 100 33 0.250.751.0 66 0.50 % of Job Completed D e s i g n C o d i n g 0 0

131. % Active Error Retirement Fraction 1.0 0.33 0.250.751.0 0.66 0.50 % of Job Completed D e s i g n C o d i n g 0 0

132. Efficiency in Exploration 50 25 00.51 Fract. Total Resource Remaining Undiscovered 0

133. Non-linearity causes the response to a change in a variable to be conditioned by the state of the system… Non-linearity causes the response to a change in a variable to be conditioned by the state of the system…

134. Z = X * Y or X / Y rather than X + Y or X - Y Z = X * Y or X / Y rather than X + Y or X - Y X Y.. (2) by the value of other variables.. Subsystem ISubsystem II

135. Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Productivity From Technology * Effect Of Exploration On Productivity Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Productivity From Technology * Effect Of Exploration On Productivity Technology Exploration Finance Investments Productivity Eff. Of Exploration On Productivity

136. To be continued...

137. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Total Resource (TR) Undiscovered Resource (UR)

138. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) UndiscoveredResource(UR) Total Resource (TR)

139. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) UndiscoveredResource(UR) Total Resource (TR)TechnologicalProgress

140. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) UndiscoveredResource(UR) Total Resource (TR)TechnologicalProgress ExplorationProgress

141. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)UndiscoveredResource(UR) Productivity From Technology = Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) / Undiscovered Resource (UR)

142. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) UndiscoveredResource(UR) Total Resource (TR) Productivity From Technology = Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) / Undiscovered Resource (UR) TechnologicalProgress

143. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) UndiscoveredResource(UR) Total Resource (TR) Effect of Exploration On Productivity = Undiscovered Resource (UR) / Total Resource (TR)

144. Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) UndiscoveredResource(UR) Total Resource (TR)ExplorationProgress Effect of Exploration On Productivity = Undiscovered Resource (UR) / Total Resource (TR)

145. Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Productivity From Technology * Effect Of Exploration On Productivity Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Productivity From Technology * Effect Of Exploration On Productivity Technology Exploration Finance Investments Productivity Eff. Of Exploration On Productivity

146. Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) / Undiscovered Resource (UR) * Undiscovered Resource (UR) / Total Resource (TR) Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) / Undiscovered Resource (UR) * Undiscovered Resource (UR) / Total Resource (TR) Cumulative Identified Resource Additions to Technically Undiscoverable Resource Remaining TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)

147. Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) / Total Resource (TR) Yield = Investments * Productivity = Investments * Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) / Total Resource (TR) TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)

148. TechnicallyDiscoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)TechnologicalProgress ExplorationProgress

149. …so that non-linearity causes effects to become blended …so that non-linearity causes effects to become blended

150. => Non-linearity makes it difficult to establish experience with respect to underlying causes (diagnosis) and leverage points, doses and timing (treatment) Non-linearity makes it difficult to establish experience with respect to underlying causes (diagnosis) and leverage points, doses and timing (treatment)

151. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

152. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

153. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

154. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

155. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

156. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

157. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

158. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

159. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

160. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

161. Demand - Investm. in Prod. % of Investments in Production Investm. in R&D Qlt + + R&D Efficiency Price Price/QLTSales Revenue Production Capacity Production Rate Inventory Level + + + -- + + + + - - + + + + + + -

162. Non-linearity makes it difficult to utilize formal analysis Non-linearity makes it difficult to utilize formal analysis

163. S S D D Realism Abstraction

164. It is better to be almost right (ca. 7.5) … It is better to be almost right (ca. 7.5) … …precisely wrong (3.85564923557) …precisely wrong (3.85564923557) than

165. Non-linearity => Endogenous shifts in structural dominance Non-linearity => Endogenous shifts in structural dominance

166. Interdisciplinary analogies Reality checks Defining loops that serve a purpose

167. Population

168. Birth Rate

169. Death Rate Population

170. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate Population

171. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate RGF*P Population

172. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate RGF*P Population

173. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate C RGF*P Carrying Capacity Population

174. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate P/C Stress C RGF*P Carrying Capacity Population

175. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate P/C Stress C RGF*S*PRGF*P Carrying Capacity Population

176. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate P/C Stress C RGF*P*P/CRGF*P Carrying Capacity Population

177. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate RGF*P 2 /CRGF*P Population

178. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Birth RateDeath Rate RGF*P + - Population RGF*P 2 /C

179. 5 000- 0 10 000- 010 + - 5 Months Population +

181. 5 000- 0 10 000- 010 + - 5 Months + Population

182. 5 000- 0 10 000- 010 + - 5 Months Infectious + Population

183. 5 000- 0 10 000- 010 + - 5 Months Susceptible Infectious + Population

184. Infectious c * i * S/N * I Susceptible Net Recruitment Rate - + Prob Of Mtg. Susc.Hot Contacts Per Week S/N c * I Contact Frequency c Infectivity i

185. RGF Reference Growth Fraction Population Birth RateDeath Rate P/C Stress C RGF*P*SRGF*P Carrying Capacity - + -

186. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment Rate c * i * I Note: If the entire population was susceptible, then all meetings with an infections is potentially a recruitment: - + -

187. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment Rate I/N Growth Resistance N c * i * I Total Population Note: No more than the total population N may become infectious i.e. the total population is the carrying capacity - + -

188. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate I/N Growth Resistance N c*i*I*GRc * i * I Total Population Note: The fraction I/N of the population has already been infected and a meeting between such a person and another infected does NOT contribute to recruitment - + -

189. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c*i*I*I/Nc * i * I N - + -

190. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c * i * I Recruitment under the assumption that the total population is susceptible c*i*I*I/N - +

191. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c * i * I Recruitment under the assumption that the total population is susceptible Recruitment failing because a fraction (I/N) of the total population is not susceptible c*i*I*I/N - +

192. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c*i*I 2 /Nc * i * I - +

193. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c*i*I 2 /Nc * i * I Net Recruitment Rate c * i * I - c*i*I 2 /N - +

194. c*i Reference Growth Fraction Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c*i*I 2 /Nc * i * I Net Recruitment Rate c * i * I * (1 - I/N) Recruitment succeeding because a fraction (1 - I/N) of the total population is still susceptible - +

195. Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c*i*I 2 /Nc * i * I Net Recruitment Rate - + c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

196. Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate c*i*I 2 /Nc * i * I Net Recruitment Rate - + c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

197. Infectious c*i*I 2 /N Net Recruitment Rate c * i * I - + c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

198. Infectious c*i*I 2 /N c * i * I Net Recruitment Rate - + c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

199. Infectious c * i * I - c*i*I 2 /N Net Recruitment Rate

200. Infectious c * i * (1 - I/N) * I Net Recruitment Rate

201. Infectious c * i * (1 - I/N) * I Net Recruitment Rate

202. Infectious Susceptible c * i * (1 – (N-S)/N) * I Net Recruitment Rate - +

203. Infectious Susceptible c * i * ((N – (N-S))/N) * I Net Recruitment Rate - +

204. Infectious c * i * S/N * I Susceptible Net Recruitment Rate - + Infectious c * i * S/N * I Susceptible Net Recruitment Rate - + Prob Of Mtg. Susc.Hot Contacts Per Week S/N c * I Contact Frequency c Infectivity i

205. Infectious c * i * I/N * S Susceptible Net Recruitment Rate - + Infectious c * i * I/N * S Susceptible Net Recruitment Rate - + Prob Of Mtg. Susc.Hot Contacts Per Week S/N c * I Contact Frequency c Infectivity i

206. Infectious Net Recruitment Rate c * i * I *S/N Susceptible Infectious Potential Recruitment RateFailed Recruitment Rate (c * i) * I(c*i*I/N)*I NOTE: Although the models are equivalent, the positive and negative loops in these two models are not the same! They ”tell the story” in two very different ways - +

207. 5 000- 0 10 000- 010 + - 5 Months Susceptible Infectious +

208. - NetRecruitmentRate Infectious Susceptible NetRecruitmentRate Susceptible + Summary

209. Endogenous Shifts in Structural Significance Diffusion and Depletion Processes Masking a negative loop by a positive loop Endogenous Shifts in Structural Significance Diffusion and Depletion Processes Masking a negative loop by a positive loop

210. Exploration Rate Exploration Potential - Exploration Rate

211. Expl. / Exploit. Pot Exploration Rate - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + Expl. / Exploit. Pot Exploration Potential

212. Exploitation Rate - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Exploration Potential Exploration Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot

213. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Exploration Rate Exploited Exploitation Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot Exploited Exploration Potential

214. Exploited - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Exploration Rate Exploitation Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot Exploited Exploration Potential

215. - Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot Exploited

216. Investments in Exploration - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot Revenues Exploited

217. Investments in Exploration Productivity in Exploration - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot Revenues Exploited

218. Investments in Exploration Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot Revenues Exploited Productivity of Investments in Exploration

219. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Investments in Exploration Productivity of Investments in Exploration Investments in Exploration Technology Exploration Technology + Expl. / Exploit. Pot Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Revenues Exploited

220. Productivity of Investments in Technology Investments in Exploration Technology - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Investments in Exploration Revenues Productivity of Investments in Exploration Investments in Exploration Technology Exploration Technology + Expl. / Exploit. Pot Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Investments in Technology Exploited Exploration Technology

221. Investments in Technology Productivity of Investments in Technology - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Revenues Expl. / Exploit. Pot Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Exploited Exploration Technology

222. Investments in Technology Productivity of Investments in Technology - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + Revenues Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Exploited Exploration Technology

223. Investments in Technology Productivity of Investments - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + Revenues Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Exploited Exploration Technology

224. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + Exploited Exploration Technology + - + Exploited Exploration Technology

225. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Investments in Exploration Productivity of Investments in Exploration Investments in Exploration Technology Exploration Technology + Expl. / Exploit. Pot Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Revenues Exploited

226. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Investments in Exploration Productivity of Investments in Exploration Investments in Exploration Technology Exploration Technology + Expl. / Exploit. Pot Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Revenues Exploited

227. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + - Exploitation Rate Investments in Exploration Productivity of Investments in Exploration Expl. / Exploit. Pot Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Revenues Exploited Exploration Technology

228. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + Exploitation Rate Investments in Exploration Productivity of Investments in Exploration Expl. / Exploit. Pot Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Revenues

229. Investments in Exploration Productivity of Investments - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + Revenues Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity Exploitation Rate Expl. / Exploit. Pot

230. - Exploration Potential Exploration Rate + Expl. / Exploit. Pot + - + Explored / Exploit. Pot

231. - Undiscovered Discovery Rate + Discovered + - +

232. CAIR TUdRR Technically Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)TechnologicalProgress ExplorationProgress Investment and technology loop dominance 5 000- 0 10 000- 0100 + 50 Years + Undiscovered Discovered Discovery Rate +

233. CAIR TUdRR Technically Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)TechnologicalProgress ExplorationProgress - Undiscovered Depletion loop dominance Discovered Discovery Rate + 5 000- 0 10 000- 0100 + - 50 Years Undiscovered Discovered +

234. TUdRR Technically Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)DTP EP - Undiscovered Depletion loop dominance Discovered Discovery Rate + 5 000- 0 10 000- 0100 + - 50 Years Undiscovered Discovered + CAIR

235. TUrRR Technically Recoverable Resource Remaining (TRRR) TUdRR Technically Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)DTP EP - Undiscovered Depletion loop dominance Discovered Discovery Rate + 5 000- 0 10 000- 0100 + - 50 Years Undiscovered Discovered + CAIR RTP PP

236. TUrRR Technically Recoverable Resource Remaining (TRRR) TUdRR Technically Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)DTP EP Recovered Production Rate + 5 000- 0 10 000- 0100 + 50 Years Undiscovered Discovered CAIR RTP PP + Investment and technology loop dominance

237. TUrRR Technically Recoverable Resource Remaining (TRRR) TUdRR Technically Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR) Total Resource (TR)DTP EP - Unrecovered Depletion loop dominance Recovered Production Rate + 5 000- 0 10 000- 0100 + 50 Years Undiscovered Discovered CAIR RTP PP - +

238. Could this model be applied in the health sector ?

239. Patients who, techno- logically considered, cannot be treated Patients who, techno- logically considered, may be treated Alle Pasienter Technologicalprogress Progress in utilization - Untreated Shift in loop-dominance Treated Progress + Patients treated

240. A diffusion model

241. Management from a System Dynamics perspective Strengthen favorable loops Weaken unfavorable loops

242. What loops are favorable or unfavorable varies from one point in time to the next ! Note

243. Management from a System Dynamics perspective In developing robust policies, management must establish a surveillance of loop dominance

244. Management from a System Dynamics perspective so as to decide on which to weaken and which to strengthen at any point in time In developing robust policies, management must establish a surveillance of loop dominance

245. Behavior Structure

246. SPREAD SHEET Multimedia databases Modern Problem Statement Format:

247. Point of departure Source Material

248. Formalization Source Material SD-model

249. Documentation Source Material SD-model

250. Design and Control Source Material SD-model ILE

251. Source Material SD-model ILE Illustration

252. Source Material SD-model ILE Transparency

253. The Modeling Process

254. Problem articulation Formulation of dynamic hypothesis Formulation of simulation model Testing Policy design & evaluation

255. A predator prey model HLstart HL5 HL6 HLstart HL5 HL6

256. Peter M. Senge: The Fifth Discipline From Archetypes to Generic Structures & Behavior and back again.....

257. F Limits to Growth F Eroding Goals F Escalation => Success to the Sucessful F Tragedy of the Commons F Fixes that Fail F Shifting the Burden to the Intervener=> Dependency & Addiction Archetypes

258. Class of Challenges Problem Symptom Own solution -

259. Class of Solutions: Shifting the burden to an intervener Intervention Own solution - - Problem Symptom

260. Class I of Side Effects: Dependence Intervention Own solution Ability to solve + - - Problem Symptom

261. + Class II of Side Effects: Addiction Intervention Own solution Ability to solve - - Quality of Intervention Problem Symptom +

262. A Dynamic Story Problem Behavior

264. Backlog

268. Backlog Management

269. Backlog Backlog Management

270. - Backlog Adjustment Backlog Order Rate Ideal Structure Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

272. A Dynamic Story Additional Evidence

274. Backlog Backlog Management

275. Backlog Backlog Management

276. - Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Order Rate Problem Structure Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

278. Solution Overtime

279. Backlog Backlog Management

280. Backlog Backlog Management

281. Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate Order Rate Long term solution - - Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

282. Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Normal Repair Rate Backlog Adjustment Backlog Hire Rate Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate Order Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate Long term solution - - +

283. Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate Order Rate Expected Over- time Trouble I: Dependence + - - + Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

284. MTBF Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate Order Rate Expected Over- time Trouble II: Addiction + - - + + Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

285. MTBF Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate Order Rate Expected Over- time Trouble II: Addiction + - - + + Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

286. MTBF Complexity Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate Order Rate Expected Over- time Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

287. MTBF Neg. Feedback Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate - - Order Rate Expected Over- time Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

288. MTBF Pos. Feedback Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate + - - + + Order Rate Expected Over- time Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

289. MTBF Delay Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate + - - + Order Rate Expected Over- time + Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

290. MTBF Non-linearity Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate + - - + Order Rate Expected Over- time + Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

291. Schedule pressure 1 1- o.8- 1.25- o.51.5 Overtime Graph

292. 1 1- o.51.5 MTBF Graph ? ? Schedule pressure

293. MTBF Non-linearity Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate + - - + Order Rate Expected Over- time + Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate

294. MTBF Schedule Pressure Des Workforce Workforce Backlog Adjustment Backlog Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate + - - + Order Rate Expected Over- time + Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate Des Repair Rate Repair Rate Uncertainty

295. Class of Challenges Own solution - Problem

296. Instance of a Challenge - Recruitment Under-/Over- Capacity

297. Class of Solutions: Shifting the burden to an intervener Intervention Own solution - - Problem

298. Instance of a Solution: Shifting the burden to the workforce - - Overtime Recruitment Under-/Over- Capacity

299. Class I of Side Effects: Dependence Intervention Own solution Ability to solve - - + Problem

300. Instance I of a Side Effect: Dependence on Overtime Recruitment Ability/willingn. to recruit - - Overtime Under-/Over- Capacity +

301. Class II of Side Effects: Addiction Intervention Own solution Ability to solve - - Quality of Intervention + + Problem

302. Instance II of a Side Effect: Increasing load through decreased MTBF Under-/Over- Capacity Recruitment + - - MTBF Overtime Ability/willingn. to recruit +

304. SPREAD SHEET Multimedia databases Modern Problem Statement Format:

305. Point of departure Source Material

306. Formalization Source Material SD-model

307. Documentation Source Material SD-model

308. Design and Control Source Material SD-model ILE

309. Source Material SD-model ILE Illustration

310. Source Material SD-model ILE Transparency

311. 5 000- 0 10 000- 0100 + - 50 Ubehandlede Behandlede + Years Utnyttlesesløkke-dominans