1. SCHOOLING AND YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION AND SOCIETY John Ainley & Phillip McKenzie CEET Annual Conference Melbourne, 1 November 2007

2. OUTLINE Focus –Completing secondary school –Participating in post-school education and training Context –Participation levels –Employment opportunities Conceptual framework –Competence in foundation skills –Attitudes –Intentions Results –Represented as paths of influence Conclusion –Earlier school outcomes matter –Earlier school outcomes can be changed

3. Context: static school completion rates Apparent retention rates to Year 12 static since 1991 Three students in four complete secondary school Variation by: –Proficiency in foundation skills –Socioeconomic background –Sex –Indigenous status

4. Context: attainment of at least upper secondary education by 25-34 year-olds

5. Context: jobs and qualifications Fastest growth is in jobs requiring post-school qualifications Employment growth 2003-2006: - post-school quals: +3.8% p.a. -without quals: 0.4% p.a. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Managers and Administrators Professionals Associate Professionals Tradespersons etc Advanced Clerical/Service Interm. Clerical/Sales/Srvce Interm. Production/Transport Elemen. Clerical/Sales/Srvce Labourers etc 1997-82005-62013-4 Source: Shah & Burke (2006)

6. Year 12 completion and post-school outcomes Completing Year 12 has a positive effect on labour force participation, employment & earnings controlling for other factors -- the impact is greater for females Completing Year 12 has a positive impact on career satisfaction and general life satisfaction Educational attainment has a positive impact on health (also linked to labour force participation) Source: Hillman (2005); Productivity Commission (2007)

7. Conceptual framework: Year 12 participation Background Home Locations Language at home Parents’ Education SES Gender Grade 9 achievement Literacy Numeracy Attitudes to School Year12 Participation Year 12 Participation (Intention) a c b

8. Conceptual framework: tertiary education participation Year 12 Participation Tertiary Education Tertiary Education (Intention) a c b Background Home Locations Language at home Parents’ Education SES Gender Attitudes to School Grade 9 achievement Literacy Numeracy

9. Data Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) Sample –Year 9 in 1995 –National representative sample –13,000 students from 300 schools –72% retained to 1998 (the year of Year 12) Initial data collection in schools –Tests of reading and mathematics – reliability > 0.80 –Questionnaire Attitudes – reliability > 0.93 Intentions Background Annual surveys by mail and telephone –experiences in education training and work –participation in social and community activities –attainments and accomplishments

10. Results: Year 12 Grade 12 Participation Female Attitudes to School Year 9 Literacy Year 9 Numeracy Non-Metro LBOTE Parents’ Education SES Grade 12 Participation (Intention) 0.10*** 0.14*** 0.97*** 0.38*** 0.21*** 0.30*** 0.45*** 0.15*** 0.32*** -0.18*** -0.20*** 0.20** Tertiary Education 0.39***

11. Results: tertiary education Female Attitudes to School Year 9 Literacy Year 9 Numeracy Non-Metro LBOTE Parents’ Education SES Year 12 Participation Tertiary Education Tertiary Education (Intention) 0.17** 0.07** 0.39*** 0.16*** 0.17*** 0.23*** 0.61*** 0.05*** 0.32*** 0.35*** 0.24***

12. Conclusions: Year 12 Other things equal: attitudes to school predict intention to continue to Year 12; intention to continue to Year 12 predicts actual participation; effect of attitudes is mediated through intentions literacy and numeracy influence Year 12 participation directly, as well as through intentions social background factors operate through intentions rather than directly

13. Conclusions: post-school education Other things equal: attitudes to school predict intention to continue to post-school education; intention to continue predicts actual participation; effects of attitudes is mediated through intentions literacy and numeracy influence tertiary participation directly, as well as through intentions But The effects of attitudes and intentions are less strong for tertiary education than university education