1. THE CLIMATE SEVERITY INDEX FOR CANADA Recalculated for recently observed climate change and a scenario of future climate

2. The CSI of Phillips and Crowe An arbitrary index, with a scale of 0 to 100, designed to measure the impact of climate on Canadians, with regard to: –human comfort –psychological well-being –climatic hazards to human life, health and well-being For 146 Canadian locations

3. winter discomfort –January wind chill, winter length and severity summer discomfort –humidex, summer length, warmth and dampness psychological factors –darkness, sunshine, wet days, fog hazards –wind, thunderstorms, blowing snow, snowfall outdoor mobility –snowfall, visibility, freezing precipitation CSI Ingredients

4. Original CSI Map of Canada

5. The CSI and Observed Climate Change (1) The original CSI was based on the climate for 1941-1970 (for 146 stations) We now have climate data for 1953- 1995 (for a few stations) The recent climate has warmed and gotten wetter. What has that done to the CSI?

6. Recalculation of the CSI CSI recalculated for 15 stations using hourly data for –1953-1970 (to compare with original) –1953-1980 (to add more recent data) –1961-1995 (most recent climate window) Using only daily data (because scenarios of future climate do not provide hourly data)

7. The CSI Recalculated

8. The CSI and Future Climate CSI calculated on the model grid using model outputs from one run of the Canadian CGCM for one scenario of increasing GHGs and aerosols for –1961-1995 (present climate) –2010-2039 (the 2020s) –2040-2069 (the 2050s) –2070-2099 (the 2080s)

9. CSI 1961-1995

10. CSI 2010-2039

11. CSI 2040-2059

12. CSI 2070-2099

13. A Scenario of Future CSI