1. Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY? Gordon Alexander, Senior Economic and Social Policy Advisor CEE/CIS Region Global Child Poverty Study Meeting, Tashkent April 2-4 2008

2. UNICEF Main Message: A new generation of evidence-based policy for children data from people – and children from ‘inputs’ to ‘outcomes’ focus on ‘performance gaps’ being clear on Hypothesis : what are the policy changes that you need evidence to support ?

3. UNICEF For first time in more than a decade, resources are available A ‘window of opportunity’ over the next 5-8 years A 3rd wave of reforms is underway but there are risks –Spending will be on infrastructure –Policies remain sectoral –Political support for reform falters –External conditions change

4. UNICEF 4 Parts to Presentation Some Building Blocks Where are we now ? Big Issues (added value of study?) What is driving policy?

5. UNICEF Building Blocks 1 Child Well-being is multi-dimensional – and inter-connected  Children’s life chances – powerfully influenced by access to and quality of services  Some periods/transitions esp critical (early years of life, from school to job…)  Children’s experiences at home, with friends and in neighbourhood  Importance of children’s perspectives

6. UNICEF Building Blocks 2 Systems themselves are often the source of failures for children Systems that had their logic in past - no longer respond to current or emerging challenges –Certain groups of children always excluded –‘Intention’ may well be good but outcomes for children poor –Often unable to monitor effect of their policies Reform can produce exclusion –‘gaps’ from withdrawal of state –models imported from outside, not fully contextualised –incomplete reform –old models restored

7. UNICEF 4 Principles from CRC to shape and guide response  ‘the best interests of the child’  non-discrimination  participation  resources ‘to the fullest extent possible’

8. UNICEF A Story of Crisis and Economic Re-bound GDP per capita CEE/CIS low point early-mid 90s, upward trend since ’98-99. Similar pattern of recovery but increasingly divergent paths…

9. UNICEF Where are we now? Measuring vs 7 dimensions of child well-being  Material situation  Housing  Health  Education  Peer relationships  Family forms and care  Risk and Safety

10. UNICEF Progress at the top (laws, policies…) but less at the bottom (implementation) Vulnerability still High Rise in disparities Erosion of social services New dimensions – migration, decentralisation, HIV/AIDS

11. UNICEF Performance Gap 1 Poverty is coming down…. Source : World Bank 2005

12. UNICEF But not all children are benefitting from economic growth Source: TransMonee. Analysis based on complete trend data from 16 countries. GDP and public care of children:

13. UNICEF Performance Gap 2: Life Expectancy (2004) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Albania Croatia Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 60 65 70 75 05000100001500020000 GDP per capita PPP$ Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE

14. UNICEF Czech R. HungaryPoland Slovakia Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Albania Bosnia-Herzegovina Croatia FYR Macedonia Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 5 10 15 20 25 30 05000100001500020000 GDP per capita PPP$, in 2004 Fitted values Performance Gap 3 : Under 5yr Mortality Source: TRANSMONEE

15. UNICEF New barriers for the poor Informal Payments During Most Recent Consultation Source: Balabanova 2004 %

16. UNICEF Performance Gap 4 : Education Upper Secondary Education enrolment 15-18yrs (%) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Albania Bosnia-Herzegovina Croatia FYR Macedonia Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 20 40 60 80 100 05000100001500020000 Gdp per capita PPP, 2004 Source: TRANSMONEE

17. UNICEF Quality of Education PISA 2006 – Reading Scores

18. UNICEF Performance Gap 5 : Pre-Primary enrolment (2004) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Slovenia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Albania Bosnia-Herzegovina Croatia FYR Macedonia Moldova Russia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 0 20 40 60 80 % 05000100001500020000 GDP per capita PPP Source: TRANSMONEE

19. UNICEF Access to Pre-School - by Income Quintile Source: UNICEF 2007

20. UNICEF Performance Gap 6: Stunting Children < 5yrs by household assets Source: MICS 2006

21. UNICEF Stunting by maternal education Source: MICS 2006

22. UNICEF Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Albania Bosnia-Herzegovina Croatia FYR Macedonia Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 20 40 60 80 100 120 05000100001500020000 GDP Per Capita $ PPP Fitted values Performance Gap 7 : Young People Mortality Rates 15-19yrs Source: TRANSMONEE

23. UNICEF An epidemic with its roots in poverty Incidence of HIV infections Source: EuroHIV 2007

24. UNICEF Why did children lose out in the first phase of transition? Pre-occupation economic and political stabilisation Fiscal squeeze Lack of institutional structures that protected their interests Reform of areas that mattered was politically painful Past practices …

25. UNICEF Long period of underinvestment in Health Government Expenditure on Health as % GDP CIS Countries 1996-2006 Source: WHO database 2008

26. UNICEF A more mixed picture on Education Government Expenditures on Education/GDP (%) 2004 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Bulgaria Albania FYR Macedonia Belarus Moldova Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan 2 3 4 5 6 05000100001500020000 GDP per capita PPP$, 2004 Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE

27. UNICEF Yet these are the areas of public demand for investment EBRD Life in Transition survey 2006 HEALTH EDUCATION HOUSING PENSIONS

28. UNICEF What are the big issues? Extent to which economic growth becomes pro-poor ? What are ‘family-friendly’ social protection & labour market policies? A package of interventions & services all children have access to? Increased budgets not just going into buildings and roads? Are Social Services responding to most vulnerable? How is Decentralization best approached?

29. UNICEF Lastly, Child well-being and GDP are not correlated: Policy Matters!

30. UNICEF What does this mean for the study? That need for a clear hypothesis The link to policy - right from the start How can the analysis support (and inform)reform? Lead to a change in paradigm