1. Trade, Growth and the Environment SCSE & ASDEQ Meeting Quebec City, May 17 M. Scott Taylor Department of Economics, University of Calgary & National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA

2. What are the Issues? Is continuing economic growth compatible with an improving environment? What determines cross country differences in environmental quality? Does international trade shift dirty pollution industries to less developed countries?

3. The Growth Dilemma Continual growth with environmental improvement requires falling emissions per unit of output. But lowering emissions per unit of output comes at increasing cost, because of Diminishing Returns.

4. Implication Pollution abatement costs should rise as emissions per unit of output fall. Higher costs must lower the return to investment This slows or even chokes off growth.

5. A Potential Solution Technological progress holds abatement costs down The return to capital accumulation is not choked off Growth with environmental improvement is possible

6. Is it possible? Maybe – but what would it require? Is there any evidence that it has occurred for any pollutant in any country? What does this evidence tell us about our future with carbon regulation?

7. The Solow Model One Aggregate Good produced via capital equipment and labor Aggregate output can be consumed or invested Capital accumulates over time via investment Technological progress makes inputs to goods production more efficient over time.

9. Rewrite in Different Units

10. k* (n+g+δ)k f(k) Capital per effective worker y* The Solow Model sf(k) i* k(0) Output Savings Investment

11. BGP Predictions k* is constant along the BGP, but this means: Capital per worker, K/L grows at rate g Income per capita Y/L grows at rate g Aggregate output grows at rate g+n Technological progress determines an economy’s long run growth.

12. k* (n+g+δ) sf(k)/k Capital per effective worker Rates of Change k(0) Transition Path Predictions

13. Unconditional Convergence Poor Countries Should grow faster than Rich ones

14. k* (n+g+δ) sf(k)/k Capital per effective worker Rates of Change Transition Path Predictions s’f(k)/k (n’+g+δ) k*’

15. Conditional Convergence Correct for SS differences

16. Summary Technological Progress is key to growth Two time periods: transition and balanced growth. Convergence in incomes per capita, after conditioning on country characteristics.

17. The Green Solow Model Technological progress makes inputs used in both goods production and abatement more efficient over time. Environmental standards rise slowly over time

18. Emissions produced are proportionate to output flow Emissions can be abated but at some cost. θF is Abatement costs θ is Abatement costs/GDP

19. Manipulate to Obtain Emissions Growth along BGP Defined as G E =g+n-g A Transitional Growth Component

20. Two Time Frames Along the BGP we have dk/dt = 0 Emissions fall or rise over time If G E > 0 we say growth is unsustainable If G E < 0 we say growth is sustainable

21. k* α(n+g+δ) αsf(k)/k [dE/dt]/E Capital per effective worker Rates of Change α(n+g+δ)-G E kTkT Sustainable Growth: G E <0 [dk/dt]/k

24. Empirical Implications When Growth is Sustainable The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Pollution emissions should at first rise with development and then fall Pollution Abatement costs should rise, but as a fraction of output are constant. Emissions per unit of output fall continuously.

25. US Evidence

26. Declining Emissions to GDP ratios

27. Pollution Abatement costs/GDP are virtually constant

28. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, 1940-1998

29. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, 1940-1998

30. Volatile Organic Compounds 1940-1998

31. Particulate Matter PM10, 1940-1998

32. Carbon Monoxide Emissions, 1940-1998

33. International Evidence CountriesNOxPeakSOxPeakCOPeakVOCPeakθ Share Austria-2.8<1980-13.4<1980-5.5<1980-4.219902.2 Finland-3.81990-11.6<1980-2.9<1980-3.819901.1 Czech Rep.-7.6<1980-18.61985-4.81990-6.519902.0 France-3.8<1980-10.0<1980-6.4<1980-4.219851.4 Germany-5.4<1980-3.1<1980-7.0<1980-2.619851.6 Italy-2.71990-9.5<1980-3.71990-3.81995.8 Ireland-2.72000-7.8<1980-7.01990-6.31990.6 Poland-7.51985-9.91985-10.11990-6.6<19801.6 Slovak Rep.-4.71990-10.0<1980-4.21990-7.519851.5 Sweden-4.21985-12.1<1980-3.41990-5.119851.0 Switzerland-4.41985-9.5<1980-6.9<1980-5.119851.6 Switzerland-4.41985-9.5<1980-6.9<1980-5.119851.6 Hungary-3.0<1980-7.7<1980-3.7<1980-2.31985.6 Portugal1.02000-2.51999-3.419951.11997.8 U.K.-4.5<1980-9.4<1980-5.9<1980-4.91990.7 Average-4.0n.a.-9.7n.a.-5.4n.a.-4.5n.a.1.3

34. For key local pollutants Growth and environmental improvement can co-exist. Regulations tightened but costs did not skyrocket. Some evidence it was technological progress in abatement.

35. Should we be Optimistic? What about Trade? What about Unsustainable paths like the one for Carbon?

36. What about Trade? Maybe the reduction in US pollution levels is matched by increases elsewhere as dirty industries migrate to less developed countries? What looks like success is really failure to address the problem.

37. Perhaps, but Pollution abatement costs are a small fraction of output for all OECD countries suggesting that other determinants of location could be important.

38. Pollution Abatement Costs as a Share of GDP Australia0.8Korea1.6 Austria2.2Netherlands1.9 Belgium1.4Norway1.2 Canada1.2Poland1.6 Czech Republic2.0Portugal0.8 Finland1.1Slovak Republic1.5 France1.4Sweden1.0 Germany1.6Switzerland1.6 Hungary0.6Turkey1.1 Ireland0.6United Kingdom0.7 Italy0.8United States1.5 Japan1.3

39. Except for very natural resource intensive industries, the developed world dominates dirty good exports.

40. Ten Largest Exporters of Environmentally Dirty Goods in 1988 Exporting County Value ($mill.) World trade share (%) Share in country exports (%) 1 Germany45.611.915.8 2 United States28.57.410.5 3 Canada25.26.623.8 4 France225.714.6 5 Belgium-Luxembourg20.85.423.5 6 Netherlands20.35.320.2 7 Japan18.94.98.1 8 United Kingdom17.34.514.1 9 Italy164.213.8 10 Sweden15.3433 Source: Low et al. (1992, p95)

41. What about Unsustainable Growth Pollution emissions should rise rapidly with development and grow more slowly thereafter. Emissions per unit of output may fall, but just not fast enough. Carbon is a prime example.

42. k* α(n+g+δ) αsf(k)/k [dE/dt]/E Capital per effective worker Rates of Change α(n+g+δ)-G E kTkT UnSustainable Growth: G E >0

43. Transition Path Predictions

44. Unconditional Convergence

45. Conditional Convergence

46. Summing Up

47. Local Pollutants US and International evidence suggests that growth and environmental improvement is possible, but not inevitable. Environmental improvement came at relatively low costs (1 to 2% of GDP) Green Solow model attributes this success to technological progress in abatement holding down the costs of slowly rising environmental standards.

48. Trade’s Role Fears of lost competitiveness from pollution regulation are over blown. Industry location depends on many more factors than just environmental regulation. Rich developed countries are the big dirty good producers and exporters.

49. What is our Carbon future? Convergence in emissions per capita across countries is likely even absent active regulation. BUT with real economic growth of 3% per year, Canada’s historic emission intensity reductions of 1.5 – 2%/year have to at least double in the long run. Rates of reduction far in excess of 3%/yr have been achieved by other countries, for other pollutants, and for only small costs. Sustainability is not only possible, it is probably quite cheap.

50. Additional Reading Werner Antweiler; Brian R. Copeland; M. Scott Taylor, “Is Free Trade Good for the Environment”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 4, Sep. 2001, pp. 877-908. James A. Brander; M. Scott Taylor, “The Simple Economics of Easter Island: a Ricardo-Malthus Model of Renewable Resource Use”, American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 1, March 1997, pp. 119-138. William Brock; M. Scott Taylor, “Economic Growth and the Environment: A Review of theory and empirics”, forthcoming in the Handbook of Economic Growth, S. Durlauf and P. Aghion eds. William A. Brock; M. Scott Taylor, “The Green Solow Model”, NBER working paper No. 10557, June 2004. Brian Copeland; M. Scott Taylor, “Trade, Growth and the Environment”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 2004, pp. 7-71.