1. Integrated SOx Emission Trend Estimation for the Sustainability Transition Students K. Miller, C. Reid, J. Agan, J. Reynolds Instructor Rudolf B. Husar Washington University, St. Louis, MO Sustainable Air Quality - Class Project Report, May 2003 Presented at NARSTO Workshop on Innovative Methods for Emission-Inventory Development and Evaluation Austin, TX ; October 14-17, 2003

2. Sustainable Development NAS: Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability SD is the process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental limits over the long term. During the ‘journey’, the pathways of a transition to sustainability have to be ‘navigated’ adaptively incorporating differing views on what should be developed, what should be sustained and over what time period. Human activities exert pressures, such as burning fossil fuels that alter the state of environment, such air quality. The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations. Each can be measured using historical data and quantify the causality chain Sustainable Air Quality Class Project: Sustainability Transition for Sulfurous Pollution

3. SOX Emissions Drivers: Linear Causality Model The driver of SOX emissions is the population, modified by economic, energy and emission factors Emissions changes can be caused by any of the four key ‘drivers’ Energy, BTUEconomy, $SOX Sox = (Sox/Btu) x (Btu/GDP) x (GDP/P) x (Pop) Persons, P Economic VigorEnergy EfficiencyEmissions Factor Causality of change?

4. Trend of Sox Change Drivers 1940-2000 Upward drivers: Population & Economy Downward drivers: Energy Eff., Emiss. Factors 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

5. Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions E k =  c jk EM j =   b ij c jk GE i =    a i b ij c jk P Industr. Energy Transp. Energy ResCom.Engy Coal Oil GasElectric Energy SOx NOx HC PM Goods &Energy,(GE) iFuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k Ind. Chemicals Industr. Goods Pop., P Metals Mercury a i Consump./Person b ij Fuels/Energy c jk Emission/Fuel- jjiiij Consumption of Goods and Energy:GE =  a i P Fuels and Materials Flow:FM =   a i b ij P Emission of Pollutants:EM =    a i b ij c jk P Industrial Prod. Transportation ResComercial EconMeasure(EM) Problem: Many causality links are matrixes; matrix elements are adjusted continuously The SOX emission causality is a dynamic network

6. Pollutant Transfer Matrixes: Surface and Atmospheric

7. S Flow Example: Coal Production and S Content Western coal production has increased Eastern coal has > 1% S Western coal has < 1% S

8. Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998 In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

9. SOx Emissions: Where are We Heading? US Sulfur: Sustainability Transition Regional Haze: Regulations in place US Sulfur Scenario: Western Coal

10. Sulfur Recovery Nature recycles the its sulfur, thus reaching a sustainable level for life. Man has not reached a sustainable level for sulfur, because the amount recovered has not been good in past years. The amounts recovered has drastically changed over the year especially in some sulfur producing processes moving us toward sustainability.

11. US Industrial Sulfur: Supply and Demand Trend US S Budget S Stocks Exp/Imp US S Supply US S Demand Source http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/of01-006/sulfur.xls US was a leading source of mined sulfur in the world but S mining has diminished The demand for industrial sulfur was met by the S recovery of from fuels and metals

12. Total S Mobilized and Recovered Most of the S mobilization is driven by fuels, particularly coal (10-15 Mtons/yr) Mined elemental sulfur peaked around 1970 but became insignificant by 2000 Recovered sulfur, especially from petroleum refining, has increased dramatically since 1950 The overall flow of mobilized sulfur has increased steadily until about 1970 followed by a downturn Mobilized in Fuels Mobilized in Minerals Recovered from Fuels & Min.

13. Sulfur Flow through Fuels and Minerals Mineral MiningProductionConsumption AirLandWater S Stocks Exp/Imp Raw Fuel MiningRefiningCombustion Minerals Flow for Goods Metals, Pyrites, Frasch Fuels Flow for Energy Coal, Oil, Gas Exp/Imp Proc Ex/Im RawEx/Im Processed Exp/Imp Air Ex/Im Water S as PollutionS as Goods Man-made S drivers: (1) Minerals: mining, byproduct of metals; (2) Energy: coal, oil and gas Within these sources, there is some recycling and recovery of sulfur Un-recovered sulfur is then released to the air, water, and soil environment as pollution

14. Summary The changes of sulfur emissions are caused by a set of ‘drivers’ or ‘forces’: –Population and economy have been upward drivers –Energy efficiency and emission factors are downward drivers –Since the 1970s, Sox emissions have declined since downward drivers dominate The causality links are dynamic transfer matrices –To explain past (e.g. spatial) emission changes one needs to reconstruct the transfers The industrial sulfur demand (fertilizer) is met by S recovered from fuels and minerals For sulfurous pollution, we are well along the Sustainability Transition