1. Bioenergy: Large-Scale Production and Climate Change Implications Jerome Weingart and Judy Siegel Energy and Security Group Reston, Virginia (USA) International Conference on Sustainable Bioenergy Bonn, Germany  October 12-13, 2006

2. Focus of presentation Principal climate impact areas: large- scale biomass production and use for energy Research and analysis necessary to understand these impacts Case example: potential of liquid biofuels to offset GHG emissions in the road transport sector of developing Asia (excludes Japan, S. Korea, Singapore).

3. Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use Environmental impacts (land conversion) –Tropical forest replacement by monocrops –Deforestation –Diminished ecological diversity and resilience; destruction of wildlife habitat –Nutrient leaching –Pollution from chemicals –Loss of watersheds –Soil erosion, mud slides, and forest fires Need to protect soil productivity, water quality, and other ecosystem services (WRI)

4. Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use Potential competition for food production Availability of suitable land

5. Land required for long-term global biofuels feedstock production (10% substitution) * * IEA (2004) Automotive Fuels for the Future (pp 75-76) Biofuel10 7 ha% world cropland Ethanol (cellulose) 1510 % Ethanol (sugar beet) 1611 % Ethanol (sugar beet) 64 % Biodiesel1712 %

6. Biofuels from field to wheels: monocropping, diversity reduction, and destruction of habitat Oil palm plantation

7. Climate Change Issues Climate system impacts through altered land use and massive cultivation (including water use) – Altered surface roughness – Altered evapotranspiration rates – Altered surface albedo –Nitrogen oxides & methane from agriculture (others) For panel discussion today

8. Biofuels Climate Benefits GHG emissions displacement Improved air quality (tailpipe emissions reductions) Reclamation of degraded land (e.g. via Jatropha) Reduction of sand storms and atmospheric dust Slowing of desertification (eventual reversal?)

9. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Asia Vehicle Transport Sector * Scenarios for market penetration of low-GHG biofuels J. Weingart (2006). Analysis for the Asian Development Bank

10. Global GHG Emissions from Energy * World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating the Numbers

11. Global GHG Emissions from Transport * World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating the Numbers

12. Road fuels global production in 2005 FuelProduction (billion liters/year) Crude oil4,705 Gasoline (road sector) IEA model 1,289 Diesel (road sector) IEA model 668 Bioethanol (1.7% energy basis)33 Biodiesel (0.5% energy basis)4

14. IEA/SMP = International Energy Agency / Sustainable Mobility Project

16. China – from this, to …

17. this, and to …

18. This!

19. The future (?): 6-fold GHG emissions growth from Asia road transport * Reference case (from IEA/SMP model)

20. Why are we interested in biofuels for the Asian road transport sector? Potentially competitive with petrofuels Indigenous, can offset imported petroleum Significant reduction in tailpipe emissions Potential for major reduction (80 – 95%) in net unit life-cycle GHG emissions compared with petrofuels, and Potential for large-scale sustainable production (perhaps)

21. What is a scenario? A scenario is like a screen play for the future. A scenario is NOT a prediction; it asks “what if”, using rules that reflect real world market dynamics and constraints

22. What is a market penetration scenario? Model of a possible future Analytic – logistic penetration model for increasing market share of an “intruder” into an “incumbent” market (“S”-shaped curve) Permits specification of key parameters to assess impacts of alternative penetration rates and ultimate market fraction for new options

23. Stages of market penetration Maturation Market dynamism Expansion Prototype Pioneering Illustrative phases of market development Takeoff

24. Two illustrative scenarios: biofuels penetration of road fuel markets in Asia 10% to 90% penetration in 50 years Logistic (“S”-shaped) penetration “Extreme” biofuels market penetration S1 –Potential market = 50% road fuels –75% lower associated GHG emissions “Ultimate” biofuels market penetration S2 –Potential market = 100% road fuels –90% lower associated GHG emissions

25. 25 GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Field-to-wheel CO 2 -equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel Source: L. Fulton (2004), IEA (currently at UNEP Nairobi)

26. Asia road transport GHG emissions with and without accelerated biofuels penetration S1 Business as usual GHG emissions Biofuels and reduced GHG emissions

27. Asia road transport GHG emissions with and without extreme biofuels penetration S2 Business as usual GHG emissions High biofuels penetration GHG emissions

28. How to maximize biofuels offsets of GHG emissions Reduce growth in transport fuel demand Increased end use efficiency is much less expensive than expanding supply This is the “golden rule” for renewables

29. Potential next steps Consistent life-cycle analysis for large-scale bio-ethanol and biodiesel production/use (“platform” for climate impact analysis and assessment) Collaboration among national biofuels working groups using compatible LCA and environmental impact methodologies Establishment of biofuels collaboratives for collaboration, coordination, technical assistance, and knowledge management

30. New Bioenergy Center (Washington, DC) International NGO Renew the Earth has established a bioenergy center Purposes include –Bioenergy information clearinghouse –Analysis of alternative bioenergy options –Assessment of bioenergy sustainability requirements and opportunities

31. For more information: Judy Siegel judy@energyandsecurity.com Jerome Weingart jmweingart@aol.com