1. Guide Dogs Maximising the impact of Raffle appeals Kate Parker Senior Insight Analyst

2. Guide Dogs Raffles - Overview  One of our longest running appeals  Quarterly appeals  Sent over 3m warm mailings in 2011  To 880k warm supporters in 2011  Raised £5m in 2011 (warm and cold)

3. The Creative

4. The Problem…  Mass communication  Not targeted  Great way to keep in touch with supporters  Potential income slipping through

5. The Proposal…  Identify max profit line and mail minimum  Send more books to supporters who are most likely to buy more tickets  Use data to personalise the letter to make the supporter feel more engaged with the cause

6. Part 1- Modelling  Analyse past campaigns : –Who we mailed –Who responded –What differentiates them from the base? –RFV variables & demographics –Identify max profit line  Use the model to select lower volumes to increase RR% and ROI.

7. Modelling – Profiling responders

8. Modelling – Decision Tree  afd

9. Modelling – Gains Chart

10. Modelling - Results

11. Part 2 – Multibook Strategy  Increase average gift by sending more tickets  Which supporters have the propensity to buy more?  How many more tickets do we send them?  Who are the ‘stubborn’ supporters?

12. Multibook Strategy - Planning  Which audience? –Non-rafflers were tested with multiple books in Summer & Winter 2010 –Those sent multiple books underperformed  Are we potentially putting off non-rafflers by mailing them too many books?  Focus on best responders to increase average gift

13. Multibook Strategy – The strategy

15. Multibook Strategy – The results Spring 2011Summer 2011Autumn 2011Winter 2011 New to 2 NO TEST -9.35%-8.24%-5.52% 1 to 2-6.42%-10.98%-14.04%-18.81% 2 to 32.02%-2.48%-0.73%-12.81%  Response rate decreased for almost all test data  However, average gift was much higher across the board. Spring 2011Summer 2011Autumn 2011Winter 2011 New to 2 NO TEST 27.41%25.64%25.72% 1 to 222.08%26.60%19.18%17.37% 2 to 37.66%6.94%5.58%12.45%

16. Multibook Strategy – The results  Need to examine ROI to determine effectiveness  Test segments performed with mixed results  Consistently positive results for New Rafflers – increased ROI for those sent more books  Increasing books for existing supporters looked positive at first, but then decreased ROI Spring 2011Summer 2011Autumn 2011Winter 2011 New to 2 NO TEST 4.75%4.85%8.44% 1 to 23.65%2.22%-6.82%-13.01% 2 to 34.96%-0.38%-3.90%-9.81%

17. Multibook Strategy – The results  Moving poor responders down meant response rate for other cells dramatically increased

18. Multibook Strategy - Conclusions  Existing raffle supporters are happy with the level of gift they have given – maintain & monitor  New raffle supporters can be encouraged to buy more without negatively affecting ROI  Moving supporters down in the strategy strengthened results

19. Maximising Raffles - Conclusions  Multi-faceted approach is best  Data and analysis needs to be robust to accurately predict behaviour  Success is measured in various ways – identifying this from the outset helps your strategy

20. Any questions?