1. Lecture 3: Emerging Markets and Elements of Country Risk Analysis.

2. World Trading System: Four Phases  1952-1972: Development Strategies;  1972-1980: Transition and Reorientation;  1980-1990: Macro Adjustment, Trade Reform and shift in Development Strategies;  1990-2007: New Globalisation Wave and WTO.

3. 1952-1972 Development Strategies  Industrialisation in LDC:  Import substitution industrialisation (ISI).  Ideology: socialist versus capitalist development  Role of Government and private sector;  Role of Planning.  Early shift to Export Led Growth (ELG) on mfg:  Asian miracle: Korea, Taiwan, HK and Singapore;  Role of Global Markets;  Role of Government.

4. 1952-1972 World Trade  Developing Countries dependent on OECD markets:  Export of primary commodities;  Import industrial goods.  Trade Blocks:  North-South trade;  Little South-South trade.

5. 1972-1980 Transition  Emergence of East and South East Asia Trade Block;  Growth of Trade in mfg in developing countries:  Success in ELG development strategy (also during oil crises 1975-1978).  Failure of socialist development model:  Increase role of markets: capitalist model;  Concern with price distortions.

6. 1980s Adjustment and Development  Financial and Macro Crises:  Inflation;  Financial capital flows and shocks;  Continued global trade liberalisation;  Spread of ELG development strategy.

7. Lessons (1)  Failure of socialist development model  No productivity growth;  Enormous distortions, rent seeking, and misallocation of resources.  Failure of ISI development strategy  Bias against agriculture;  Autarchy and ISI failed to insulate domestic economy: Macro shock: Protection and rent seeking: high cost.

8. Lessons (2)  ELG Strategy:  Comparative Advantage: labour-intensive mfg exports;  Better performance for poverty alleviation and income distribution;  Importance of mfg trade in ELG  Value added chains;  Declining importance of primary commodities  Terms of Trade Problem  Reforms as a reaction to a crisis:  First VS second generation reforms;  It’s not a good strategy for development.

9. 1990-2007 New Globalisation Wave  Expanded role of International Governance:  Entry of Developing Countries in WTO;  Expanded role of trade:  Trade in services;  Fragmentation of Production Value chains; Productivity gains;  Continued Evolution of Global Trade Blocks:  LAC, Africa, East and South East Asia;  Asian Drivers: China and India.  Trade Policy and reforms slow down.

10. Emerging Markets?!?!?  Countries:  Asia (China! India! Indonesia!);  Latin America (Brazil!);  Africa (South Africa!);  East Europe and Russia. = BRIICS  Strengths and Opportunities;  Weaknesses and Threats.

11. Strengths and Opportunities

12. Strengths and Opportunities: Economic Growth and Income Convergence

13. Strengths and Opportunities: Share in World Output

14. Strengths and Opportunities: Industrial Production

15. Strengths and Opportunities: Export Share

16. Export and Import Growth

17. Share of Industrial Countries in world export

18. Share of Developing Countries in world export

19. GDP, Export and Imports

20. Weaknesses and Threats: volatility of per capital income growth rates

21. Weaknesses and Threats: Exchange Rate Instability

22. Weaknesses and Threats: Default and Crisis

23. Weaknesses and Threats: not only economic aspects  NOT only economy features but also Socio-Political Elements!  Weak Infrastructure;  Lack of specialised intermediaries;  Weak regulatory system;  Weak contract-enforcing mechanisms;  Instable political system

24. Invest or not Invest?  YES!  Growing economies;  Increasing investment opportunities;  High revenues.  NO!  Default risk;  Volatility and Instability.

25. Further Reforms could decrease risk?  YES: Second Generation Wave of Reforms: Complex domestic regulation; service regulation; technical standards; IPR, administration and competition rules; Improve the business-climate!  Link between trade policy and domestic economic policy and institutional reforms;  Less dependent on trade negotiation and international organisation foreign-policy agenda;  More transparent!

26. Developing Countries and The Financial Crisis (1)  Financial sector Decrease in the capital inflow; Risk of capital outflow; Increase in the risk ratio of these countries; Devaluation of exchange rate;  Negative feed-backs on real investment!  Real Economy: Decrease in the demand for export; Decrease in FDI inflows; Lower commodity prices (+ and -)

27. Developing Countries and The Financial Crisis (2)  Central and Eastern Europe are being the most adversely affected Large current account (fiscal and external) deficit;  Latin America: tight financial condition and weaker external demand; Brazil and Mexico more hurtled from the world crisis;  Emerging Asia: Reliance on manufacturing exports; BUT domestic demand and strong policy stimulate the economy!  Africa and Middle East: Lower GDP decrease than other regions Commodity exporters; Lower remittances; FDI and aid flows reduction.

28. Russia Federation and Brazil

29. China and India

30. References  Razeen Sally (2009): “Globalisation and the Political Economy of Trade Liberalisationin the BRIICS”, chapter 4 in Lattimore and Safadi (2009): Globalisation and Emerging Economies”, OECD.  IMF (2009): ”Global Economic Policies and Prospects”, G20, London 13-14 March 2009.  Bergsten, C.F. (1999): “The Global Trading System and the Developing Countries in 2000”, WP 99-6, Institute for International Economics.  Balassa (1990): “Trade Between Developed and developing countries: a decade ahead”  Will, M. (2001): “Trade policy, developing Countries and Globalisation”, World Bank, Development Research Group.