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Module F: Simulation

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Introduction What: Simulation Where: To duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real system Why: To estimate the effects of various actions

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Simulation Imitate a real-world situation mathematically Study its properties and operating characteristics Draw conclusions and make decisions based on the results of the simulation

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Steps 1. Define problem 2. Introduce variables 3. Construct numerical model 4. Set up possible courses of action 5. Run experiment 6. Consider results 7. Decide course of action

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Advantages of Simulation Straightforward and flexible Analyse large and complex real-world systems that cannot be solved by conventional models Real-world complications can be inserted Time compression Allows “what if” questions Does not interfere with real-world system Study interactive effects of individual components

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Disadvantages of Simulation Good models are expensive and take months to develop Trial-and-error approach does not generate optimal solutions User must generate all conditions and constraints Each model is unique – solution not transferable to other problems

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Monte Carlo Simulation System contains elements that exhibit chance Experiment on chance elements by means of random sampling

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Step 1 Establish Probability Distributions

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Step 2 Build a cumulative probability distribution for each variable

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Step 3 Set random number intervals

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Step 4 Generate random numbers (Table F.4)

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Step 5 Simulate the experiment

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Where can Simulation Be Used? Queueing problems – especially ones that do not follow a Poisson distribution Inventory Analysis – finding order quantity and reorder points where demand and lead time are not constant

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Computer Simulations To draw valid results from the simulation, you must repeat it many times The computer makes this easy by generating random numbers, applying them to the model, and tracking the results

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Commercial Products Extend – student version on CD SimFactory ModSim MAP/I

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Do-It-Yourself With Excel FREQUENCY function VLOOKUP function

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