1. Project Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art

2. How good an estimator are you?

3. For the following questions… Give a range (upper and lower bounds) Do not make your ranges either too wide or too narrow Make the range so you believe there is a 90% chance of including the right value

4. What is the surface temperature of the Sun?

5. What is the weight of the heaviest blue whale ever recorded?

6. Quiz Results

7. We stink at estimation.

8. Psychology works against us.

9. Feeling of ignorance Protection of pride Influence from expectations

10. Psychology works against us. We don’t estimate accurately We don’t plan accordingly We don’t execute correctly We don’t reflect properly

11. Psychology works against us. We don’t estimate accurately We don’t plan accordingly We don’t execute correctly We don’t reflect properly

12. Artificially Narrow Ranges

13. Probability of correct estimation 100%

14. Quiz Expectations 90%

15. Business Expectations 25%

16. Single Point Estimations > 1%

17. Under-estimation Reduced effectiveness of project plans Reduced chance of on-time completion Destructive late-project dynamics

18. Over-estimation Parkinson’s Law Student Syndrome

19. Give Probability Ranges

20. My Business Expectations 50% 25%75%

21. We don’t like ranges

22. Put uncertainty into your estimation practices

23. The Golden Spiral

25. Planning Poker

26. Tainting estimates with customer expectations

27. We don’t know what we are estimating

28. “Build me a house.”

29. Find your project’s estimation cornerstones

30. How Many Bedrooms? 2 Bedrooms ~ 800 sq ft., 1 bathroom, 1 stall garage, small or shared yard. 4 Bedrooms ~ 1400 – 2200 sq ft., 2 bathrooms, 2 stall garage, yard

31. How Many Bedrooms? Prioritizing size and complexity will trigger defensive responses Prioritizing details will trigger optimism (i.e. size and complexity will fit inside details)

32. 2 Day Crutch Method

33. Forces further exploration of unknown or large features

34. 2 Day Crutch Method Forces further exploration of unknown or large features Insists task break downs of lengthy known features

35. 2 Day Crutch Method Forces further exploration of unknown or large features Insists task break downs of lengthy known features Teaches the wisdom of knowing when something is really unknown

36. Modifying estimates with “control knobs”

37. Psychology works against us. We don’t estimate accurately We don’t plan accordingly We don’t execute correctly We don’t reflect properly

38. Estimates ≠ Plans

39. Estimation = Planning “Plans are worthless — but planning is everything.” —Dwight D. Eisenhower

40. Psychology works against us. We don’t estimate accurately We don’t plan accordingly We don’t execute correctly We don’t reflect properly

41. Not forcing clarity on project uncertainty

42. “It feels like 20 hours, but let’s put 24 hours to fudge it a little bit…”

43. Cone of Uncertainty

44. $100k 50k 200k 67k 150k80k 125k 25k 400k

45. Hofstadter's Law

46. The Gut Instinct Equation

47. Psychology works against us. We don’t estimate accurately We don’t plan accordingly We don’t execute correctly We don’t reflect properly

48. Estimates are for visibility, not accountability

49. “A good estimate is a estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project to hit its targets” [Steve McConnell, Software Estimation]

50. Psychology working for us. Be aware we don’t like being uncertain Use estimates to humbly understand unknowns Create team unity that is quick to extinguish unknowns

51. Questions?

52. http://gosquids.com/Estimation.pptx http://gosquids.com/Estimation.mp3