1. Climate Process modeling Team (CPT) Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP) NAME Science Working Group Nov. 6, 2003

2. NOAA ISIP Program Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of climate forecasts and application products to manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts due to intra-seasonal to interannual climate variations

3. ISIP Program Components 1.High-end model development  (e.g., NCEP, GFDL, GMAO, CCSM) 2.Experimental Prediction 3.Forecast and Application Products Development 4.Research and Development (e.g., NAME)  Observing and understanding  Improving physical representation in models  Transition research into operations (e.g., improving operational models through CPTs)  Legacies: Thinking about impact on “operations” before thinking about the next process study

4. CPT as a Framework to Facilitate the Path of Research to Operations CPT is an attractive framework for linking theory, process studies and experiments, diagnostics, process model development, climate and prediction models, and observations. CPTs focus on improvements in major (operational) climate models as deliverable

5. Climate Process Teams Cooperative Development Climate model development & improvement Process model development Process experiments and observations Data, knowledge Lack of focus, little interaction Deliverables Documented observations Improved parameterizations Impact evaluation Plans for additional process studies Observing requirements

6. Improving key deficiencies of physical processes (parameterizations) common in climate models  Model intercomparison projects are insufficient to address how to improve physical processes in models Bridging the large gap between process research (process observation and process modeling) and climate model development efforts Guiding (some of) future process studies Identifying sustained observational requirements Climate Process modeling and science Teams

7. Approach Provide resources to small teams of observationalists, diagnostic scientists, process modelers, and (one or more) developers of climate models: – Focus on interaction & deliverables (not manuscripts) that lead to demonstrated improvement in climate models – Establish collaborative efforts between the research community and modeling centers – Encourage active long-term mechanisms – Management mechanisms (Institutional and programmatic commitment)

8. NSF-NOAA Pilot CPT Development

9. Pilot Phase Summary US CLIVAR developed concept and recommended scientific areas where rapid progress was likely (GFDL-CCSM Priorities) NSF and NOAA announcement (2003: ~$2.5M per year) to address critical issues in IPCC class climate models Three Pilot CPTs established (2003) to demonstrate the concept: –Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity –Ocean mixing in overflow regions (e.g. over steep topography) –Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing

10. April 2002 GFDL/NCAR Workshop on Atmospheric Model Development Recommendations for science process teams: What are the highest priority problems on which to focus attention in order to improve climate change models on < 5 year time scales? 1) Cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity How can we best confront our models with observations to improve cloud prediction schemes so as to reduce the uncertainty in global climate sensitivity? 2) Deep tropical convection and convective parameterization Deficiencies in tropical convection schemes are a major impediment towards creating better coupled models and simulating regional climate change

11. Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and NCAR Models Climate sensitivity rankings Low level cloud changes at 2xco2

13. Timeline for Pilot CPTs  2002-2003:Planning  CCSM-GFDL workshop  CPT white paper  Tropical Bias workshop (double ITCZ)  Vest in the community  (CCSM-SAB, CLIVAR-SSC/SSG, WCRP/JSC, NRC)  Spring 2003: Joint NSF-NOAA AO  Summer 2003:Reviews  Sept. 2003:Funding Decisions  Low-latitude feedbacks on climate sensitivity  Three high-end modeling centers (CCSM, GFDL, GMAO)  Eight University research groups (PIs)  Ocean mixing processes (2 teams, all Major OGCMs)  Oct. 1, 2003:Start of 3-year projects

14. NAME CPTs ?  Goal: Improving operational weather and climate models through NAME obs and NAME science  2004:Planning  High priority processes: NCEP-GMAO-GFDL? Others?  Diurnal Cycle?  Convective Precip over complex terrain?  Vest in the community  (NAME, VAMOS, GAPP, PACS, others)  Winter 2004/05: AO ?  FY06 Starts ?

15. Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity Lead PI: Chris Bretherton Team Univ. Washington UCLA NW Research Assoc NCAR-CCSM SUNY/Stonybrook Colorado Univ. Colorado State Univ. NASA-Langley NOAA-GFDL NASA/GMAO* Focus: –Response of subtropical boundary-layer cloud under climate change –Cloud feedbacks from tropical convective cloud regimes (microphysics, convective, radiative, and turbulent processes)

16. Ocean mixing through gravity current entrainment PI: Sonya Legg (WHOI) Team: Woods Hole Ocean. Inst. NCAR-CCSM Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs Princeton Univ. of Miami/RSMAS NOAA-GFDL Focus: –Improved parameterizations of gravity current entrainment –Examples: overflow regions such as the Faroe Bank Channel, Antarctic, and other locations where deep-water masses are formed. –Entrainment mixing impacts deep-water mass formation, and hence thermohaline circulation

17. Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing PI: Raffaele Ferrari Team MIT NCAR-CCSM Univ of Mass. - Dartmouth UCLA UCSD-Scripps NYU-Courant Inst. Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs Florida State Univ. NOAA-GFDL Focus: –Improved parameterizations of mesoscale eddies (these eddies transport significant amounts of heat, momentum, tracers, and freshwater) –Focus on diabatic eddy flux component in the upper (mixing) ocean layer, which is not currently parameterized

18. Community Responses NCAR CCSM Advisory Board (January 2002) –Opportunity to brief members of CAB on CLIVAR and CPTs –Positive feedback, comments: Don’t forget international participation!;Importance of a systems approach - several modeling centers on the CPTs; how will accountability be assessed? Mechanisms for implementation? –Encouraged CCSM SSC to engage CLIVAR in initiating a CPT activity NRC Forcing and Feedbacks Panel (Feb 2002) –Positive feedback; support from NSF and NOAA. Comments: How will one scope the bounds of the process/topic? - don’t make it too narrow; Importance of participation by coupled climate models (CCSM, GFDL); which topics/processes? difficulty in using/testing new parameterizations in climate models!

19. JSC/WCRP (March 2002) –International CLIVAR presented CPT as an idea under consideration by SSG –CPTs promoted as an approach to link process-oriented activities and modeling/predictability activities CCSM/GFDL Joint Meeting (April 2002) Identified two (atm) topics of mutual interest for CPTs:  Cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity  Tropical deep convection and convective parameterization International CLIVAR SSG-11 (May 2002) –Positive response; ie approval Invite international modeling groups to participate; how will teams be chosen (implementation)?

21. Develop pilot-phase CPTs in 2003 Utilize existing data or data nearly in-hand Aiming at measurable progress in 2-4 yrs Identify high-priority processes (systematic errors) Focus on IPCC-class models (CCSM, GFDL) Share list with NSIPP, NCEP, DAO, GISS, and others to enlist their participation

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