2. Issues Surrounding The Separation of Quebec What Will Happen to R.O.C.? Labrador Border Allocation of Assets & Liabilities e.g., proportion of national debt; valuation date of assets Partition of Quebec Itself - esp. aboriginal people Who Will Negotiate for Canada if PM is from Quebec? Free-trade - Quebec-Canada; Quebec-USA Ill-will “Once things start to unravel, they’ll move very quickly in ways we cannot foresee. No one can predict the outcome.” (Gordon Richie)

3. The Rise of a New Force in Quebec: Action Democratique du Quebec Elections of Realignment (e.g. 1936, 1970) a “third party” moves above 20% of votes Formation of the ADQ dissident Liberals in midst of Charlottetown negotiations in 1992 Distribution of Voter Support in Quebec Elections Polls 199419982001 2002 Parti Quebecois 44 44 3425 Liberals 42 45 4030 ADQ 7 12 1840

4. Causes of the Rise of the ADQ Leadership Scandal Strategic Impasse Desire for Political Stability Belief that The Current Model of Government in Quebec is Not Sustainable

5. What Would an ADQ Victory Mean to Canada? Quebec will be more involved in alliances with other provincial governments Fading of the BQ from the federal political scene Intergenerational Conflict - Leading cadre of ADQ is in early 30s. They want the baby boom generation to “pay its fair share”. - ADQ is strongest among age 18- 28 year olds, but is 1 st or 2 nd in every age group.