Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications"— Presentation transcript:

1 ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications
Abdul Basit Associate Research Fellow A(RF) International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), RSIS Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 18 February 2015 Select from Slide Layouts (Title Slide) Presentation Title: Arial-Bold, 42 pt Presentation Subtitle: Arial-Regular 30pt

2 Overview : What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS)?
Background. . Militant Islamist Groups Allied with ISIS. Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks. No. of Foreign Fighters. Latest Updates of Foreign Fighters. ISIS Influence in South Asia: Trends in South Asia Why South Asia? Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups. ISIS Support Base in India. ISIS Cell in Af-Pak. ISIS Four-pronged Strategy for South Asia. Terrorism Consortium in South Asia. 3 Models of Jihad in South Asia. AQIS vs ISIS. What does it all mean for South Asia? : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt

3 Major Questions Will ISIS pick a bone with Pakistan given the fact that Pakistan is not part of the US-led anti ISIS coalition? Is the group or its local affiliates capable of doing it? What is the magnitude of ISIS footprint in South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular? How the South Asian Islamist Militant Organizations have reacted to ISIS Growing Influence? What does it all mean for South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular? : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt

4 What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (Dawlat al-ʿIrāq al-ʾIslāmiyyah, IS) ?
The most powerful and wealthy Islamist Militant Group. New-school of Jihadist setting new trends of the modern terrorist iconography. Post 9/11, the only group to occupy a territory size of a of a state. Financially self-sufficient Possesses the largest number of foreign fighters in its rank, including females. A contestant and claimant to leadership of Global Jihad. : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt

5 Background (1). Jamaat Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad (1999-2004)
(2). Al-Qaeda in the Land of Two Rivers ( ) (3). Majlis Shura Al-Mujahideen (MSM, 2006) (4). Islamic State of Iraq ( ) (5). Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS, Present) : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt

6 Groups Allied with ISIS
Libya Ansar Al-Shariah Islamic Youth Shura Council Nigeria Boko Haram Indonesia Abu Bakar Bashir Pakistan Jandullah Shahidulah Shahid Group Tehrik-e-Khilafat Jamia Hafsa Students Islamic State Afghanistan Salafai Taliban Uzbekistan Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) Egypt Gamah Islamiyah Ansar Bait-ul-Maqdis Philippines Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)

7 Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks
Over 15,000 foreign fighters from 80 countries. Second largest congregation of foreign fighters since the Afghan Jihad ( ). Five largest contributors of foreign fighters are; Jordan (2,089), Saudi Arabia (1,016), Tunisia (970), Lebanon (890), and Libya (556). The number of fighters from Western Europe is around 1,937, 17 percent of foreign fighters population. The most important regions for foreign fighter recruitment outside Western Europe and the Middle East are the Balkans and the countries of the former Soviet Union. : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt Source:

8 No. of Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks
Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt

9 Latest Updates of ISIS Foreign Fighters
The daily flow of foreign fighters has gone down from the peak per day to a low of On 1 December 2014, an Indian foreign fighter, Areeb Majeed, who returned to India revealed he cleaned toilets for ISIS. “ On 18 December 2014, ISIS executed 150 female in Iraq’s Fallujah province for refusing to accept jihad marriage.” (Source: On 20 December 2014, ISIS executed 100 fighters for trying to flee Syria. : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt “I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.” Source:

10 Trends in South Asia The national governments downplay the threat while certain pressure/ groups and vested interests over-exaggerate the threat. The trend varies across South Asia countries. In Afghanistan and Pakistan it is confined to Salafist and Panjpiri pockets of militant groups. In India, it is lone-wolf behavior of self-radicalized individuals and group differential behavior. In Bangladesh most of the individuals from the Bangladeshi diaspora community have joined ISIS ranks. : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt Pakistan Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan rules out the presence of the Islamic State (IS) in the country. Source: Source:

11 No. of Foreign Fighters who Joined ISIS from South Asia
: Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt Source:

12 Why South Asia? Ideological Factor: (Black Flags of Khurasan)
Social Factor: Conducive environment for incubation of Extremist Ideologies and Physical (ungoverned spaces) and Social Sanctuaries (youth vulnerable to extremist propaganda). Political Factor: Al-Qaeda’s Power-base.

13 Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups
Open Rejection: ( Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Kashmir Jihadi Groups and TTP Core) Jumping ISIS Bandwagon: (Jandullah, Tehrik-e-Khilafat and Shahidullah Shahid Group) Fence-sitting Behaviour: (Hizb-e-Islami Gulbadin and Jamat- ul-Ahrar etc. )

14 ISIS Support Base in India
Lone Wolf and self-radicalized individuals: Mahdi Masroor (Social Media Operative) and Areeb Majeed who went to Iraq and later escaped No groups-level presence Ansar al-Tawhid Fi-Bilad Al-Hind has pledged allegiance to ISIS The activities are restricted to social media activism, flags and pro-ISIS banners For the first time, Indian Muslims have responded to an extremist-terrorist organization in such a way The trends in South, Central and North India are uniform : Select from Slide Layouts (Title and Content) Title: Arial-Bold, 44 pt Body: Arial-Regular 15pt “I’m a soldier, I have no regrets” Source: “I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.” Source:

15 ISIS Cell in Af-Pak SAEED KHAN (ORAKZAI) Khalid Mansour (Hangu, KP)
Gul Zamam (Khyber Agency) Saeed Khan (Orakzai Agency) Mufti Hassan (Peshawar) Dawlat (Kurram Agency) Omar Mansour (Masjid Ahmar) Obeidaullah Peshawari (Tawhid wal Jihad - Peshawar) Sa’ad al-Emarati (Sa’ad Abi Waqas – Logar province, Afghanistan) Jawad (Abtalul-Islam) Muhsin (Kunar province, Afghanistan) Talha (Murat)

16 ISIS Four-pronged Strategy in South Asia

17 Terrorism Consortium in South Asia

18 3-Models of Jihadi in South Asia
Al Qaeda -Ghazwa-e-Hind Afghan Taliban -Emirate ISIS-Caliphate

19 AQIS vs ISIS Consolidate existing network, then expand Contain ISIS
Support Affiliates Exploit Local Issues Exploit Brand Expand Network Look for new recruits & affiliates Indoctrinate through Propaganda

20 What does ISIS threat mean for South Asia?
Polarized and complicated militancy-landscape. Ideological and operational transformations among the Jihadist groups. New narratives and deeper penetration of the Salafi Jihadist Ideology. Cyber radicalization. Difficulties in Lawn enforcement and security maintenance.

21 Thank You


Download ppt "ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google