1. 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST “THE HISTORY OF STORMS IN NEW ENGLAND DEMONSTRATES THAT THE WEST INDIAN (CAPE VERDE) HURRICANES MUST BE PLACED IN THE “TO-BE-EXPECTED” CLASS OF CATASTROPHE AND THAT THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED POSSIBILITY THAT ONE MAY OCCUR IN ANY YEAR” TAKEN FROM: HURRICANE FLOODS OF 1938 U.S.G.S. WATER SUPPLY PAPER #867 PUBLISHED 1940 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 1 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

2. HURRICANES 1886 - 2006 1. Hurricane of 1888 2. Hurricane of 1903 3. Hurricane of 1916 4. Hurricane of 1938 5. Hurricane of 1944 6. Edna (1954) 7. Carol (1954) 8. Donna (1960) 9. Gerda (1969) 10. Agnes (1972) 11. Belle (1976) 12. Gloria (1985) 13. Bob (1991) 14. Floyd (1999) 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 123 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 HURRICANE TRACKS 1886 - 2006 HURRICANE HISTORY 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 2 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

3. HURRICANE LANDFALL POTENTIAL BY CATEGORY IN NEW ENGLAND - NEXT 20 YEARS 2006 - 2026 CATEGORYPROBABILITY (Frequency)  CAT. I WINDS 74-95 MPH250% ( 8 Years)  CAT. II WINDS 96-110 MPH125% (16 Years)  CAT. III WINDS 111-130 MPH 54% (37 Years)  CAT. IV WINDS 131-155 MPH 2% (1,000 Years)  CAT. V WINDS > 155 MPH 0.4% (5,000 Years) HURRICANE POTENTIAL 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 3 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

4. NAMES FOR THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON AlbertoHeleneOscar BerylIsaacPatty ChrisJoyceRafael DebbyKirkSandy ErnestoLeslieTony FlorenceMichealValerie GordonNadineWilliam HURRICANE NAMES 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 4 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

5. NOAA NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST JUNE 1ST - NOVEMBER 30 TH CATEGORY # OF STORMS (NORMAL)ACTUAL??  NAMED STORMS13 - 16( 9.6)1 (Thus Far)  HURRICANES8 - 10(5.9)  INTENSE HURRICANES*4 - 6(2.3) u TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY 195%(100%) u MAJOR HURRICANE STRIKE PROBABILITIES* uEAST COAST 64%(31%)Florida to Maine uGULF COAST47%(30%)Texas to Florida Panhandle *Category III and Above, taken from the 2006 Seasonal forecast provided by Dr. William Grey, Colorado State University, 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 5 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

6. NEW ENGLAND HURRICANE POTENTIAL THE CATASTROPHIC IMPACT OF A STRONG CATEGORY III HURRICANE ON CONNECTICUT AND NEW ENGLAND 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 6 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

7. MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITIES Arthur J. Rocque Jr., Commissioner February 28, 2000 The Connecticut Fire Academy WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CATEGORY III HURRICANE 131 - 155 MPH 111 - 130 MPH 96 - 110 MPH 50 - 73 MPH NEW YORK NEW JERSEY RHODE ISLAND CONNECTICUT MASSACHUSSETTS PENNSYLVANIA VERMONT MAINE NEW HAMPSHIRE 74 - 95 MPH

8. MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITIES Arthur J. Rocque Jr., Commissioner  STAMFORD BRIDGEPORT OLD SAYBROOK GROTON 80 - 110 mph 130 - 150 mph 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 8 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

9. $41.2 B $30.9 B $13.7 B $3.8 B $1.4 B$1.2 B $90 M $0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 Billions of Dollars CTNYMARIVTNHNJME Direct Economic Losses to Buildings: Total Losses Property Damage LossesBusiness Interruption Losses $92.6 Billion $398 M 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 9 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

10. 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT Douglas Glowacki Program Specialist Department of Emergency Management & Homeland Security 25 Sigourney Street Hartford, Connecticut 06106 Phone; 1-860-256-0917 Email: Douglas.glowacki@po.state.ct.us