1. Rip Currents--Killer Currents Jim Lushine

2. Outline of Presentation Rip Current Fatalities Data Forecasting Verification NWS Products Future Work

3. Rip Current Fatalities

4. Southeast Florida Rip Current Fatalities

5. Florida Rip Current Fatalities

6. Florida Weather-related Fatalities 1989-2003

7. United States Rip Current Fatalities

8. Weather-related Formation Factors 1. Local Gradient Wind 2. Swell

9. Non-Weather-related Formation Factors Time of Low Tide* Persistence Tidal Currents Deep Water Currents (e.g. Gulf Stream) Seismological Factors *SE Florida Coast

10. Data

11. Florida Marine Observations

12. Four Factors in Forecasting Rip Currents

13. Wind Factor

14. Gradient Wind vs Rip Current Fatalities along SE Florida Coast

15. Gradient Wind vs Non-Rip Current Fatalities along SE Florida Coast

16. Sea Breeze Effect

17. Convective Wind Initiation

18. Swell Factor

19. Swell Height* vs Rip Currents <2 Feet---No effect on rip currents 2-7 Feet---Mdt Risk of rip currents >7 Feet---High Risk of rip currents *Swell Period also important

20. Tidal Factor

21. Faster Rip Current near Low Tide

23. Tidal Variation of Fatalities

24. Weaker Swimmers Can go Farther Offshore?

25. Persistence Factor

26. Days Between Initiation of Rip Currents and the First Fatality

27. Gradient Winds vs Residual Rip Current Fatalities in SE Florida

28. Beach Patrol Rescue Reports

29. Daily Rip Current Risk 1=Low 2=Moderate 3=High

30. Verification

31. NWS Rip Current-Related Products Surf Forecast Hazardous Weather Outlook Marine Weather Statement Zone Forecasts (Headlines)

32. Decision to Include in ZFP Weekday vs Weekend/Holiday Improving Weather from yesterday Change in surf conditions from yesterday Low Tide in the afternoon

33. Future Work

34. Tidal Variation of Fatalities= Hourly Rip Current Risk?

35. Beach Geomorphology Renourishment Type of Sand Persistence of Rip Channels

36. Upcoming Rip Current Events Technical Workshop (April 6-7, 2004) NWS Media Event (May 24, 2004) FACVB meeting (June 10, 2004) COMET Module (Summer 2004)

37. Florida’s Uniform Flag Warning System

38. The End