Presentation on theme: "Learning objectives In this chapter, you will learn about how we define and measure: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) the Unemployment."— Presentation transcript:
0 Macroeconomic Data Topic 2: (chapter 2) revised 9/15/09 These are three of the most important economic statistics. Policymakers and businesspersons use them to monitor the economy and formulate appropriate policies. Economists use them to develop and test theories about how the economy works. Because we’ll be learning many of these theories, it’s worth spending some time now to really understand what these statistics mean, and how they are measured.
1 Learning objectivesIn this chapter, you will learn about how we define and measure:Gross Domestic Product (GDP)the Consumer Price Index (CPI)the Unemployment RateMotivation:-These are three of the most important economic statistics.-Policymakers and businesspersons use them to monitor the economy and formulate appropriate policies.-Economists use them to develop and test theories about how the economy works.-Because we’ll be learning many of these theories, it’s worth spending some time now to really understand what these statistics mean, and how they are measured.
2 Gross Domestic Product Two definitions:Total expenditure on domestically-produced final goods and servicesTotal income earned by domestically-located factors of productionWill have seen in principles, but worth recalling, since in theories to follow, will sometimes talk about GDP as expenditure, and sometimes income. So not be confused.
3 Why expenditure = income In every transaction, the buyer’s expenditure becomes the seller’s income.Thus, the sum of all expenditure equals the sum of all income.
5 Consumption (C)def: the value of all goods and services bought by households. Includes:durable goods last a long time ex: cars, home appliancesnon-durable goods last a short time ex: food, clothingservices work done for consumers ex: dry cleaning, air travel.Here we decompose expenditure on GDP into different expenditure categories.Reason is that each category has distinct behavior, and want distinct theory for each.Note on housing:A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption. More on this in a few moments, when we get to Investment.A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.”So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before.In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing.To help students keep all this straight, you might suggest that they think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant).
6 U.S. Consumption, 2001Decompose consumption yet further. Durables sometimes act more like investment because long-lived.
7 Investment (I) def1: spending on [the factor of production] capital. def2: spending on goods bought for future use.Includes:business fixed investment spending on plant and equipment that firms will use to produce other goods & servicesresidential fixed investment spending on housing units by consumers and landlordsinventory investment the change in the value of all firms’ inventoriesNote is not saving in stocks and bonds.In definition #1, note that aggregate investment equals total spending on newly produced capital goods. (If I pay $1000 for a used computer for my business, then I’m doing $1000 of investment, but the person who sold it to me is doing $1000 of disinvestment, so there is no net impact on aggregate investment.)The housing issueA consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption.A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.”InventoriesIf total inventories are $10 billion at the beginning of the year, and $12 billion at the end, then inventory investment equals $2 billion for the year.Note that inventory investment can be negative (which means inventories fell over the year).
8 U.S. Investment, 2001source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
9 Investment vs. CapitalCapital is one of the factors of production. At any given moment, the economy has a certain overall stock of capital.Investment is spending on new capital.
10 Investment vs. Capital Example (assumes no depreciation): 1/1/2002: economy has $500b worth of capitalduring 2002: investment = $37b1/1/2003: economy will have $537b worth of capitalIf you teach the stocks vs. flows concepts, this is a good example of the difference.
11 Stocks vs. Flows More examples: stock flow a person’s wealth a person’s saving# of people with # of new college college degrees graduatesthe govt. debt the govt. budget deficit
12 Government spending (G) G includes all government spending on goods and services.G excludes transfer payments (e.g. unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services.Transfer payments are included in “government outlays,” but not in government spending. People who receive transfer payments use these funds to pay for their consumption. Thus, we avoid double-counting by excluding transfer payments from G.
13 Government spending, 2001source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
14 Net exports (NX = EX - IM) def: the value of total exports (EX) minus the value of total imports (IM)Remember, GDP is the value of spending on our country’s output of goods & services.Need Exports category to measure production of Fords not bought in US, so not in C or I or G.Need Imports to cancel out presence of BMWs made in Germany but present in US Consumption.
15 An important identity Y = C + I + G + NX where Y = GDP = the value of total outputC + I + G + NX = aggregate expenditureAn identity is an equation that always holds because of the way the variables are defined.Our models will focus on the cases of a closed economy, where NX=0.
16 A question for you: Suppose a firm produces $10 million worth of final goodsbut only sells $9 million worth.Does this violate the expenditure = output identity?Suggestion When you pose this (or any) question to your class, don’t ask for students to volunteer their answers right away. Instead, tell them to think about it for a minute and write their answer down on paper. Then, ask for volunteers (or call on students at random). Giving students this extra minute will increase the quality of participation as well as the number of students who participate.Correct answer to the question:Unsold output adds to inventory, and thus counts as inventory investment – whether intentional or unplanned. Thus, it’s as if a firm “purchased” its own inventory accumulation.Here’s where the “goods purchased for future use” definition of investment is handy: When firms add newly produced goods to their inventory, the “future use” of those goods, of course, is future sales.
17 Why output = expenditure Unsold output goes into inventory, and is counted as “inventory investment”……whether the inventory buildup was intentional or not.In effect, we are assuming that firms purchase their unsold output.
18 GDP: An important and versatile concept We have now seen that GDP measurestotal incometotal outputtotal expenditurethe sum of value-added at all stages in the production of final goodsThis is why economists often use the terms income, output, expenditure, and GDP interchangeably.
19 GNP vs. GDPGross National Product (GNP): total income earned by the nation’s factors of production, regardless of where locatedGross Domestic Product (GDP): total income earned by domestically-located factors of production, regardless of nationality.(GNP – GDP) = (factor payments from abroad) – (factor payments to abroad)Emphasize that the difference b/w GDP and GNP boils down to two things:location of the economic activity, and ownership (domestic vs. foreign) of the factors of production.From the perspective of the U.S., factor payments from abroad includes things likewages earned by U.S. citizens working abroadprofits earned by U.S.-owned businesses located abroadincome (interest, dividends, rent, etc) generated from the foreign assets owned by U.S. citizensChapter 3 introduces factor markets and factor prices. Unless you’ve already covered that material, it might be worth mentioning to your students that factor payments are simply payments to the factors of production, for example, the wages earned by labor.
20 Discussion Question:What explains why GNP differs from GDP for some of the following countries?This issue is subjective, and the question is intended to get students to think a little deeper about the difference between GNP and GDP. Of course, there is no single correct answer.Some students offer this response:It’s better to have GNP > GDP, because it means our nation’s income is greater than the value of what we are producing domestically. If, instead, GDP > GNP, then a portion of the income generated in our country is going to people in other countries, so there’s less income left over for us to enjoy.
21 (GNP – GDP) as a percentage of GDP for selected countries, 1997. Reasons why GDP may exceed GNP:- Country has done a lot of borrowing from abroad, or foreigners have done a lot of investment in the country (income earned by foreign-owned domestically-located capital). This is most likely why Mexico’s GDP > GNP.- Country has a large immigrant labor forceIn Bangledesh, we see a positive gap, meaning GNP > GDP. This is probably because many citizens leave the country for better job opportunities elsewhere.In Singapore, GNP > GDP probably because the country has done a lot of foreign investment, and so earns a lot of interest from the capital that it owns abroad.Mexico: Mexico has financed some of its capital stock by foreign borrowing; the income earned by this capital is paid to its foreign owners, causing GDP >GNP.USA: the U.S. is the world’s largest net debtor nation, where the “net debt” refers to the value of foreign-owned assets in the U.S. minus U.S. owned assets abroad. Given this, you’d expect the GNP-GDP gap to be negative, other things equal. The gap is not negative, though, probably because U.S. assets are considered relatively safer than foreign assets, so the U.S. is able to borrow at a lower rate than it lends. May change.
22 Real vs. Nominal GDPGDP is the value of all final goods and services produced.Nominal GDP measures these values using current prices.Real GDP measure these values using the prices of a base year.An issue if we want to compare values across time.
23 Real GDP controls for inflation Changes in nominal GDP can be due to:changes in priceschanges in quantities of output producedChanges in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities,because real GDP is constructed using constant base-year prices.Suppose from 2002 to 2003, nominal GDP rises by 10%. Some of this growth could be due to price increases, because an increase in the price of output causes an increase in the value of output, even if the real quantity remains the same.Hence, to control for inflation, we use real GDP. Remember, real GDP is the value of output using constant base-year prices. If real GDP grows by 6% from 2002 to 2003, we can be sure that all of this growth is due to an increase in the economy’s actual production of goods and services, because the same prices are used to construct real GDP in 2002 and 2003.
24 Practice problem Compute nominal GDP in 2002 and 2003 Qgood A$110$215good B$103$154Tell students that if they don’t have calculator, just have them write down the expressions that they would enter into a calculator if they had calculators, i.e. Nominal GDP in 2001 = 30* *192.Compute nominal GDP in 2002 and 2003Compute real GDP in each year using 2002 as the base year.
25 Answers to practice problem Nominal GDP multiply Ps & Qs from same year 2002: $1 x 10 + $10 x 3 = $ : $2 x 15 + $15 x 4 = $90Real GDP multiply each year’s Qs by 2002 Ps 2002: as above: $ : $1 x 15 + $10 x 4 = $55 (2002$)So in real terms, GDP did not rise as much as it would seem from nominal terms.
26 U.S. Real & Nominal GDP,Notice that the yellow line is steeper than the red line. That’s because prices generally rise over time. So, nominal GDP grows at a faster rate than real GDP.If you’re anal like me, you might ask students what is the significance of the two lines crossing in 1996.Answer: is the base year for this real GDP data, so RGDP = NGDP in 1996 only.
27 GDP DeflatorThe inflation rate is the percentage increase in the overall level of prices.One measure of the price level is the GDP Deflator, defined asAfter revealing the first bullet point, mention that there are several different measures of the overall price level. Your students are probably familiar with one of them---the Consumer Price Index, which will be covered shortly. For now, though, we learn about a different one <reveal next bullet point>, the GDP deflator.The GDP deflator is so named because it is used to “deflate” (remove the effects of inflation from) GDP and other economic variables.
28 Understanding the GDP deflator Example with 3 goodsFor good i = 1, 2, 3Pit = the market price of good i in month tQit = the quantity of good i produced in month tNGDPt = Nominal GDP in month tRGDPt = Real GDP in month tThe next slide uses simple algebra to show that the CPI is a weighted average of prices; the weight on each price reflects that good’s relative importance in the CPI basket. The algebra is very similar to that of an earlier slide that showed that the GDP deflator is a weighted average of prices.
29 Understanding the GDP deflator The formula for the GDP deflator is 100*NGDP/RGDP. It’s not obvious to most students that this is a measure of the average level of prices. But, using some simple algebra, this slide shows that the GDP deflator really is a weighted average of prices.The GDP deflator is a weighted average of prices.The weight on each price reflects that good’s relative importance in GDP.Note that the weights change over time.
30 Working with percentage changes USEFUL TRICK #1 For any variables X and Y,the percentage change in (X Y ) the percentage change in X the percentage change in YEX: If your hourly wage rises 5% and you work 7% more hours, then your wage income rises approximately 12%.
31 Working with percentage changes USEFUL TRICK #2the percentage change in (X/Y ) the percentage change in X the percentage change in YEX: GDP deflator = 100 NGDP/RGDP.If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%, then the inflation rate is approximately 5%.
32 Consumer Price Index (CPI) A measure of the overall level of pricesPublished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Used totrack changes in the typical household’s cost of livingadjust many contracts for inflation (i.e. “COLAs”)allow comparisons of dollar figures from different yearsA different measure of average price level, focus on the cost of livingRegarding the comparison of dollar figures from different years:If we want to know whether the average college graduate today is better off than the average college graduate of 1975, we can’t simply compare the nominal salaries, because the cost of living is so much higher now than in We can use the CPI to express the 1975 in “current dollars”, i.e. see what it would be worth at today’s prices.
33 How the BLS constructs the CPI Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumer’s “basket” of goods.Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basketCPI in any month equals
34 The composition of the CPI’s “basket” Ask students for examples of how the breakdown of their own expenditure differs from that of the typical household shown here. Then, ask students how the typical elderly person’s expenditure might differ from that shown here. (This is relevant because the CPI is used to give Social Security COLAs to the elderly; however, the elderly spend a much larger fraction of their income on medical care, a category in which prices grow much faster than the CPI.)
35 Understanding the CPI Example with 3 goods For good i = 1, 2, 3 Ci = the amount of good i in the CPI’s basketPit = the price of good i in month tEt = the cost of the CPI basket in month tEb = cost of the basket in the base periodAside: The next slide uses simple algebra to show that the CPI is a weighted average of prices; the weight on each price reflects that good’s relative importance in the CPI basket. The algebra is very similar to that of an earlier slide that showed that the GDP deflator is a weighted average of prices.I chose “E” to represent the cost of the basket because “E” stands for “Expenditure”, and using “B” or “C” for the cost of the basket didn’t feel right to me. (You can, of course, edit the slides to substitute whatever other letter or symbol you think would make more sense here.)
36 Understanding the CPI The CPI is a weighted average of prices. Aside: Because the weights don’t all sum to 1, the CPI is a weighted sum, not a weighted average.The CPI is a weighted average of prices.The weight on each price reflects that good’s relative importance in the CPI’s basket.Note that the weights remain fixed over time.
37 Reasons why the CPI may overstate inflation Substitution bias: The CPI uses fixed weights, so it cannot reflect consumers’ ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.Introduction of new goods: The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights.Unmeasured changes in quality: Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured.
38 The CPI’s biasThe Boskin Panel’s “best estimate”: The CPI overstates the true increase in the cost of living by 1.1% per year.Result: the BLS has refined the way it calculates the CPI to reduce the bias.It is now believed that the CPI’s bias is slightly less than 1% per year.
39 CPI vs. GDP deflator prices of capital goods included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)excluded from CPIprices of imported consumer goodsincluded in CPIexcluded from GDP deflatorthe basket of goodsCPI: fixedGDP deflator: changes every year
40 Two measures of inflation Percentagechange16CPI141210GDP deflator8Be sure to point out that the data are the percentage changes, not the levels, of the CPI and the GDP deflator.In 1980, the CPI increased much faster than the GDP deflator. Ask students if they can offer a possible explanation.(For possible answers, just refer to previous slide.)642-219481953195819631968197319781983198819931998Year
41 Measuring Unemployment: Categories of the population employed working at a paid jobunemployed not employed but looking for a joblabor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services; all employed plus unemployed personsnot in the labor force not employed, not looking for work.
42 Two important labor force concepts unemployment rate percentage of the labor force that is unemployedlabor force participation rate the fraction of the adult population that ‘participates’ in the labor force
43 Compute percentage changes in labor force statistics Supposethe population increases by 1%the labor force increases by 3%the number of unemployed persons increases by 2%Compute the percentage changes inthe labor force participation rate:the unemployment rate:Allow two minutes of class time for your students to work this exercise. This will give them immediate reinforcement of the definitions of the labor force participation rate, the unemployment rate, and the “arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes” introduced earlier.2%1%
44 Okun’s Law (Observation) Employed workers help produce GDP, while unemployed workers do not. So one would expect a negative relationship between unemployment and real GDP.This relationship is clear in the data…
45 Okun’s LawOkun’s Law states that a one-percent decrease in unemployment is associated with two percentage points of additional growth in real GDPPercentage change in real GDP10-3-2-11243861951198420001999199319751982Change in unemployment rate
46 Chapter SummaryGross Domestic Product (GDP) measures both total income and total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods & services.Nominal GDP values output at current prices; real GDP values output at constant prices. Changes in output affect both measures, but changes in prices only affect nominal GDP.GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports.
47 Chapter Summary The overall level of prices can be measured by either the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of a fixed basket of goods purchased by the typical consumerthe GDP deflator, the ratio of nominal to real GDPThe unemployment rate is the fraction of the labor force that is not employed. When unemployment rises, the growth rate of real GDP falls.