1. Systemic Thinking to Developing a Meta-Synthetic Support for Complex Issues Xijin Tang Institute of Systems Science Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 P.R.CHINA 16th JISR-IIASA Workshop on Methodologies and Tools for Complex System Modeling and Integrated Policy Assessment July 15-17, 2002, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

2. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn2 Contents Approaches to Complex Problems Solving Meta-Synthesis Method Developing Meta-Synthetic Tool for Complex Problem Solving

3. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn3 Customers  Man-Machine Meta-Synthetic Support for Macroeconomic Decision Making  A Major Project by Natural Science Foundation of China (1999-2003 ）  Computerized Support for Comprehensive Assessment of Weapon System  A Defense Innovation Project by Chinese Academy of Sciences （ 2001-2002)

4. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn4 Complex Problems Socioeconomic Problem Sustainable Development Evaluation of large project especially R&D Projects Semi-Structured or Unstructured problems Open Complex Giant System (Qian, 1990)

5. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn5 Purposes When facing unknown problems, –does current framework of resources (Models, Knowledge) still work? –how to utilize current framework of knowledge and models? –how to integrate current resources ? –how to create new knowledge or models based on experts’ wisdom and ready framework of models with new data and information?

6. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn6 Approaches to Complex Problem Solving Hard System Approaches Soft System Approaches Hard OR vs. Soft OR Hard System Analysis vs. Soft System Analysis

7. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn7 Modeling Strategic Problem Strategic Choice (J. K. Friend) Soft Systems Methodology (P. Checkland) Journey Making (previously known as SODA & Cognitive Mapping) developed by Colin Eden and colleagues at the Universities of Bath and Strathclyde Dialog Mapping

8. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn8 Comparisons between Hard and Soft System Approaches Hard system approach systematic world end-means scheme optimization  satisfaction content-oriented positive-empirical models do the thing right Soft system approach systemic mind participation/debate learning  satisfying process-oriented interpretive methods do the right thing

9. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn9 Modern Oriental System Approaches Shinayakana system approach (Sawaragi, etc. Japan, 90s) –i-System: Intelligence, Imagination, Involvement, Integration and Intervention Meta-synthesis from qualitative to quantitative approach (Qian, et al. China, 90s) –Hall for Workshop of Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWMSE) Wu-li Shi-li Ren-li System Approach (Gu, et al. 90s) Spiral System Methodology (Wang, China, 90s)

10. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn10 Systems Approach to Problem-Solving Cultural Facet Technological Facet Systemic Facet

11. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn11 Meta-Synthesis Method Above meta-analysis method Data, information, models, knowledge From qualitative (expert knowledge and wisdom) to quantitative (quantitative analysis) Making full use of breaking advances in IT Formulating confident hypothesis vs. To be precisely tested, verified, and validated. Workshop or Seminars for discussion and debate

12. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn12 A Practical Example Research on Man-Machine cooperated Meta- Synthetic Engineering System Supporting Macro Economy Decision-Making A NSFC Major Project 12 units, > 50 people 4-year (99.06-03.06)

13. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn13 Project Organization Master Coordinating Group (0) Environment Group (1) Economy Group (2) Method Group (3) KDD and Cognition Group (4) ISS, CAS XJTU SHTU BNU Tsinghua BISE IP, CAS IA, CASBIIC RMU SDPC HUSTIA, CAS Over=all Design Group

14. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn14 Issues during Project Implementation Multiple views, multi-institution involvement, multiple disciplines Lack coordinating endeavors Lack of actionable framework  Utilization of ready resources  Bottom-up research achievements

15. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn15 Bottom-up Research Halls for Meta- Synthesis

16. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn16 Some Methods and Computerzied Support Brainstorming Delphi Voting AHP Other MCDM methods Nominal Group Techniques

17. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn17 Final Product ? Databases, Methods, Models, Tools, Halls for Meta- synthesis Input ? Output

18. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn18 What will NSFC see? Meta-Synthesis Practice –Aggregation of resources –One centralized hall / component-based –Distributed rooms / agent-based

19. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn19 Outcome ? Cultural Facet Technological Facet Systemic Facet

20. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn20 Functions Communication, Collaboration and Consensus building Group Thinking Group Decision Making

21. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn21 Group Work Activities Resolution Collaboration Consensus New Knowledge Various Knowledge Various Issues Communication

22. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn22 Divergent and Convergent Thinking Divergent Thinking Convergent Thinking Knowledge CreationKnowledge Synthesis

23. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn23 Divergent Thinking Convergent Thinking Knowledge CreationKnowledge Synthesis

24. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn24 Collaborative Thinking Cooperative Thinking Individual Thinking Individual Thinking Individual Thinking Group as a Thinking Entity Group Thinking Model Mase, et al.(1998)

25. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn25 Group 3 Main Room (IA) Discussion Room (XJTU) Discussion Room (HUST) Discussion Room (ISS) Room Beijing (BISE) Models Tools DB Economic Models (SJTU) Group 4 Group 2 KDD Models (Tsinghua) Economic Models (BIIC) System Reconstruction Model (ISS) Group 1

26. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn26 Group Argumentation Template Electronic Brainstorming Room (BAR) –Personal Viewer –Common Viewer (Seminar Blackboard) –Information View (Searching Engine) Automatic Affinity Diagramming Nominal Group Technique (NGT)

27. Common Viewer

28. Personal View

29. CSM'2002, IIASAxjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn29