1. 1 Construction and Application of Sustainable Energy Indicator in Taiwan Chien-Ming Lee, Chun-Kai Wang, Hue-Dhe Chou Institute of Natural Resource and Environmental Management / Taipei University October,11,2004 Taipei/Taiwan

2. 2 Content Taiwan Energy Development Status The Meaning of Sustainable Energy Development(SED) Sustainable Indicators Construction and Investigation in Taiwan Taiwan Indicators for Sustainabe Energy Development (TISED) model Conclusion

3. 3 Taiwan Energy Development Status % high energy import dependence high fossil fuel structure CO 2 emissions coupled with GDP growth

4. 4 Energy Development Issues High energy import dependence, the energy supplies system is vulnerable How to decouple CO 2 emissions with economic growth High fossil fuel share, to increase renewable energy is difficult New energy development lacks of market competition as well as market inducements

5. 5 Energy Development Challenges Pursue the vision of nuclear free country Enhance the energy supplies security Promote green energy use Develop new energy technology

6. 6 The Meaning of the SED SED must satisfy 1. Energy Security 2. Economic Competitiveness 3. Environmental Protection

7. 7 SED Path Economic Competitiveness Environmental protection energy security SED path

8. 8 Sustainability Indicators Criteria (Geiz and Kutzmark,1998) It should reflect sustainability concepts It will be defined with indicators:data in quantitative or qualitative are available It should be based on timely information: indicators have to relevant to the time It based on the reliable information: the data must be dependable It reflects a strategic view: a way of choosing actions today that will cause problems tomorrow

9. 9 SED Investigation in Taiwan The new idea of this research split into energy policy sustainability(EPS) and energy development sustainability(EDS) Choose Evaluation method 1. Balance Scorecard( BSC): used in EPS 2. DSR structure(IAEA,OECD framework): used in EDS

10. 10 Why we need to distinguish between EPS and EDS? EPS Intermediate Indicators Intermediate Indicators EDS variables Time lag

11. 11 Balance Scorecard Balance domestic and international energy policies Balance short-term and long-term energy targets Balance cause and effect : to link energy policy and energy development balance the multi-dimensions of : energy security, economic competitiveness and environmental protection

12. 12 Indicators of EPS Energy Decision Integrity Energy Supply Safety Community Participation Energy policy globalization Energy Supply diversity and Stability Energy Market liberalization Energy Consumption Sustainability Energy Technology & Education Energy Market Mechanism Green Energy Consumption Energy technology development Energy Education

13. 13 EPS Evaluation Structure Implemented(  ) ： 2 points In Planning(  ) ： 1 point Not in planning(  ) ： 0 points

14. 14 Energy Decision Integrity Community Participation indicators status 1.Energy decision transparency energy statistics publication Check energy target  2. Community human capital Subsidize energy community Develop energy model  3. Complementary relationship between the community and the government Subsidize domestic NGO joint international meeting Subsidy domestic NGO held energy policy conference  Energy policy globalization 1.Integrate international energy development strategy Annual participate worldwide meeting Energy institute linkage in the worldwide Energy policy toward market mechanism  2.Energy policy response to international treats CO 2 abatement policy Participation an internal meeting Long tern responsible project 

15. 15 Energy Supply Safety Energy Supply diverseindicators status 1.Pursuit nuclear free country Nuclear free act Reducing nuclear share Nuclear free launch project  2.Developing renewable energy Renewable development act Increasing renewable share Subsidize renewable project Renewable portfolio system  3.Increasing green energy share Decreasing oil and coal share Increasing natural gas share Growth of co-generation share  4.Energy emergency mechanism Cooperation with energy producing countries Dialogue with energy producing countries petroleum security saves energy prospects plan 

16. 16 Energy Supply Safety(cont’) Energy Market liberalization and indicators internationalization status 1. electricity industry management efficiency Increase IPP share Increase Delivery, distribute efficiently  2. Accelerate the development of natural gas business Reduce tariff Increase Pipeline length  3. Enhance the petroleum market efficiency Increase public safety Increase oil market mechanism Increase gas station rate 

17. 17 Green Energy Consumption Energy Market Mechanism indicatorstatus 1.Energy price including social cost Reduce adverse environmental subsidy Impose market base instrument  2.Increase energy market competition Increase energy productivity Increase export of energy intensive industry  3. Sound electricity price system Difference price between peak and load Liberalize electricity price  Employ green energy consumption 1.Energy eco-labeling system Increase energy conservation labeling Increase energy saving products Increase government green energy purchase  2.Household and commercial energy efficiency Increase the numbers of ESCO Subsidy green building Subsidy energy saving vehicle Subsidy low electrical appliance  3.Monitor energy intensive industry Increase energy audit Energy saving of energy intensive industry 

18. 18 Energy Technology & Education Energy technique development indicator status 1. Encourage energy technology innovation Subsidy R&D Growth of energy patent  2. Information and techniques spread Energy techniques transfer Build up energy data banks Performance of cooperation with well- known energy institute  Deeply energy education 1.Human capital accumulation Subsidy energy papers Praise excellent institute and personal  2.School and community energy education Subsidy elementary school energy education activity Subsidy community energy education activity Raise energy teachers  3.Information spread mechanism Hold international energy conference Hold domestic energy deploy meeting  4.Public energy conservation cognition Energy conservation conduct in media Energy website 

19. 19 EPS Evaluation EPS indicatorsscore Energy Decision Integrity21.9 Community Participation Energy policy Globalization 10.4 11.5 Energy Supply Safety23.1 Energy supply diverse and stability Energy market liberalization and internationalization 11.3 11.8 Energy Consumption Sustainability15.6 Energy market mechanism Green energy consumption 7.3 8.3 Energy Technology & Education19.0 Energy technique development Deeply energy education 9.9 9.1 Total points 79.6

20. 20 EPS path 7579.6 90 Sustainability status 0 score Sustainability path Sustainability transit Non-sustainable

21. 21 Results Total points are 79.6 (greater than 75 points), shows that the country energy policy is on the sustainability transit, however, not on the sustainability path(less than 90 points) The energy supplies safety received the highest score with 23.1 Enhancing green energy consumption is a policy priority in the future

22. 22 EDS Evaluation EDS dimensionindicatorsstatus Energy Security (ES) Energy import dependence (S) Energy safety storage (D) Excess energy supply (S) Renewable share (D)  n.a  Economic Competitiveness (EC) Energy productivity(or energy intensive) (S) Energy consumption per capita (D) Energy cost share of energy intensive industry (D) Energy sector R&D (D) Export value per energy (S) Domestic and international energy price ratio (D)  (  )  n.a. n.a  n.a Environmental Protection (EP) Energy intensive (D) Renewable share (D) Natural gas share (D) Pollution abatement payment of energy sector Electricity of unit fossil fuel input (D) CO 2 /energy (S) CO 2 /GDP (s) Radioactive waste (S)    n.a  

23. 23 ES EC EP EDS EDS Trend in Taiwan sustainability

24. 24 Regression Regression EquationR2R2 EC = 0.11 + 0.36 ES (8.42) (4.74) 0.67 EP = -0.11 + 2.25 EC (-1.29) (3.95) 0.59

25. 25 Results Energy development approaches to the sustainability path Energy security is the bases of the EDS in Taiwan

26. 26 Establish TISED Model Uses IAEA/IAE(2001) framework(DSR) and indicators selection Build up a System Regression Model

27. 27 TISED System Regression Model

28. 28 Data and Regression Equation Observers: time series (1982 – 2003) Regression equations:14

29. 29 Regression EquationR2R2 Y 5 = 37,709.46 + 0.093X 2 (26.73) *** (20.31) *** 0.95 Y 6 = 8678.786 + 0.036X 2 (8.09) *** (10.56) *** 0.85 Y 7 = 4.62 + 0.0000149X 2 (44.95) *** (44.65) *** 0.99 Y 8 = 80,615.34 + 0.99X 2 (8.62) *** (32.56) *** 0.98 Y 9 =574.7-27.1lnX 5 + 9.3lnX 6 + 75.5lnX 7 - 36.9lnX 8 (3.26) *** (-1.75) * (1.2) (3.2) *** (-3.78) *** 0.56 Y 14 = 1.76 + 0.009X 9 (11.74) *** (3.61) *** 0.40 Y 16 = 1.95 + 0.99lnX 7 + 0.3lnX 8 (3.81) *** (9.95) *** (5.33) *** 0.99

30. 30 Regression EquationR2R2 lnY 18 = 4.73 – 0.027X 14 + 0.0000287X 16 (73.87) *** (-4.87) *** (8.57) *** 0.93 lnY 24 = 18.8 + 2.84lnX 14 - 6.43lnX 16 + 3.331lnX 22 (10.66) *** (5.51) *** (-5.15) *** (3.7) *** 0.96 Y 26 = 234,339 – 21,100.12X 14 + 30.75X 22 (4.37) *** (-3.65) *** (21.08) *** 0.98 Y 19 = -8.8 +1.133lnX 2 (-6.5) *** (10.32) *** 0.84 Y 22 = -732.1 + 2.5X 16 – 216.394X 19 + 214.4lnT (-2.37) (37.3) ( -2.37) (-4.91) 0.99 Y 43 = 23.9 +0.005X 16 (11.51) *** (7.94) *** 0.76 Y 42 = 5.729 – 0.42lnX 24 + 0.65lnX 26 + 0.22lnX 43 (3.16) *** (-3.37) *** (5.83) *** (1.85) * 0.87

31. 31 Calibration Historical data Regression data

32. 32 Historical data Regression data

33. 33 Regression data Historical data

34. 34 Historical dataRegression data

35. 35 Simulation: GDP per capita Growth (3%,4%,5%)

36. 36 sustainability

37. 37 sustainability

38. 38 sustainability

39. 39 sustainability

40. 40 sustainability

41. 41 sustainability

42. 42 Policy Simulation: Energy Intensity Reduction (by energy intensive sector ) (1%,2%,3%),and hold GDP per capita growth 4% as well

43. 43 sustainability

44. 44 sustainability

45. 45 sustainability

46. 46 Policy Simulation: Energy per Capita Reduction (1%,2%,3%),and hold GDP per capita growth 4% as well

47. 47 sustainability

48. 48 sustainability

49. 49 sustainability

50. 50 Policy Simulation: Both the Energy per Capita and Energy Intensity(by sector) Reduction (1%,2%,3%),and hold GDP per capita growth 4% as well

51. 51 sustainability

52. 52 sustainability

53. 53 Conclusion Sustainable Energy Development is the biggest priority of national sustainable development Both energy policy and energy development are moving towards the sustainability pathway, but not on the path yet. Enhancing green energy consumption is a policy priority in the future

54. 54 Conclusion(Cont’) TISED system regression model indicates that 1. Energy intensity,export value per energy,energy import dependence, excess energy supply and CO 2 emissions will couple with GDP per capita growth 2. Pollutants in urban area will decouple with GDP per capita growth

55. 55 Conclusion(Cont’) Reduce both the energy intensity of energy intensive industry and energy per capita will improve energy intensity of economy-wide, air pollution, CO 2 emissions, as well as energy import dependence, which are two of the key sustainable energy policies and measures in the future.

56. 56 Thank You for Your Attention ！