1. Presented at the: Second Symposium Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling & Data Improvement SHRP2 Strategic Highway Research Program Washington, D.C. USA October 21-22, 2013 Iowa DOT with Parsons Brinckerhoff Rail Freight Commodity Models: A First Generation Effort in Iowa

2. Outline 2 Evolution of Iowa DOT Activities Statewide Traffic Model Interest in Truck & Rail Commodity Models Rail Commodity Architecture Confidential Rail Waybill in Iowa FAF3 to County Processing of Commodity Flows Rail Freight Modeling Applicability to States, MPOs and Decision Makers

3. Evolution of Iowa DOT Activities 3

4. History of Statewide Modeling in Iowa 4 First Generation Traffic Model Developed 2005-2007 Focused on Auto and Truck Traffic Applied for Planning, Engineering & Safety Studies Resource for MPO and RPA (Regional Planning Affiliation) Modeling (the DOT serves nine MPOs) Known as iTRAM Second Generation Statewide Model In progress 2012-2014 Provides an update to the 2007 traffic model Begins an emphasis on freight and commodity movements

5. 5 Iowa’s Central Location

6. 6 iTRAM Traffic Analysis Zones (1,951)

7. Interest in Commodity Flow Issues 7 Need for Commodity Flow Models Estimate Freight Rail Capacity Needs Serve Passenger Rail Models Use in Business Decision Making New Warehouse, Distribution Center Location Short Line Railroad Planning Rail Ownership Changes Study Partners Iowa DOT: Offices of Systems Planning and Rail Federal Railroad Administration

8. Iowa Corn Ton-Miles by Rail LUPA/2012 One Suggested Reporting Metric of iTRAM Freight Commodity Model

9. iTRAM Freight Commodity Architecture 9

10. Sequencing of Activities in iTRAM Update 10 Prepare Comprehensive Model Architecture Traffic Model Update Truck Model Update Rail Commodity Models Interface between the “Moving Parts” Focus of this Presentation is Rail Commodity Data Inventory & Processing Model Development Issues

11. 11

12. Freight Flows by Mode 12 * - unit of measure is thousand tons ** - does not include through trips Source: FHWA FAF3.4, Iowa, Table KT_BYMODE, Year 2011 Freight Mode WithinFromTo Total of within, to and from Iowa Tonnage % of Total Tonnage % of Total Tonnage % of Total Tonnage % of Total Truck 252,19697%58,98662%44,23147% 355,41379% Rail 6,3892%20,31821%37,10840% 63,81514% Water 00%5,8886%8681% 6,7562% Air 8690%9,63010%11,34112% 21,8405% Multiple modes & mail Pipeline Other and unknown Total 259,454100%94,822100%93,548100%447,824100%

13. Architecture Highlights (Rail) 13 Rail Models produce both Rail and Truck Demand Network Rail Assignment Deliverables Include: Freight Rail Assignment Truck Trip Tables (to and from rail heads) Approach must be Iowa-centric Investigate observed rail commodity flows Address agriculture goods movements, including a variety of exports and import of fertilizer and other. Develop future flows of rail commodities

14. Confidential Rail Waybill 14

15. STB Confidential Rail Waybill 15 Review of the Surface Transportation Board (STB) Carload Waybill Sample Complete file (900 character) compared to the public use version (247 character) Restricted distribution but used by many states for state transportation plans Tabulations by origin-destination and Surface Transportation Commodity Code (STCC) From/To Iowa Through Movements Rail Network Assignment of Waybill Data Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) rail network County to county flows

16. Quick Summary of Waybill 16 Coverage: All U.S. railroads that terminate more than 4,500 revenue carloads must participate Sample size based on number of carloads on waybill. In Iowa BNSF (48%) and UP (40%) dominate Contents of Waybill Paperwork (waybill) for moving the shipment Commodity type and weight (Surface Transportation Commodity Code) Number and type of freight cars for shipment Type of move Routing information Origin and termination freight stations Railroads used and interchange locations between railroads Origin-Destination Standard Point Location Code (SPLC) State and county (FIPS) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) areas Revenue Expansion factor

17. STB Class I Railroads plus Iowa Interstate RR 17

18. National Class I Rail Network 18

19. Mapping the Waybill Sample 19 Develop national coordinate system GIS projection Miles/degree latitude-longitude at Des Moines Create assignment network from ORNL rail network ESRI shapefile to assignable network Replace lat-long with national coordinates Impedance based on ORNL main line class variable Move waybill into workable database format Origin/termination county, Canadian province or Mexican state County centroid coordinates Locate nearest rail nodes to county centroids for selected waybill records Assign selected waybill records onto network

20. Iowa Waybill Total Annual Tons 20

21. Iowa Rail Exports: Food Products 21

22. Trailer/Container on Flatcar to Iowa Interchanges 22

23. Iowa Rail Exports: Farm Products 23

24. Next Steps 24 Detailed rail network inside Iowa Locate points where commodities are loaded onto network (originating and trans-shipment) Add link and node details (ownership, track rights, tracks, travel times, signaling, interline junctions) Validate against waybill routings Clean up national network and national zone system Eliminate extraneous links Compatible to detailed Iowa link and node variables Disaggregate to Iowa TAZs Iowa employment 2007 Economic Census Future flows

25. FAF3 Processing to Counties 25

26. FAF3 Disaggregation to Counties 26 Match counties to FAF3 regions 3143 counties including Hawaii and Alaska Renumbered counties and FAF3 regions Relate types of employment to the origins and destinations of SCTG category commodity flows Develop county as share of FAF3 region allocation factors Balance FAF3 regional flows to counties

27. Base County Employment Data 27 Bureau of Economic Analysis Largely developed from state unemployment insurance reporting (form ES-202) Employment not covered by unemployment insurance added by BEA Reported by two digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) at county level County Business Patterns Derived from census business establishment surveys and federal administration records Subject to data suppression when individual firms can be identified Reported by six digit NAICS but data suppression increases with added detail

28. Commodity-Employment Regressions: Fuel Oils (SCTG 18) 28 NAICSDefinitionNormalized Weight CBP_324Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing0.79 CBP_4247 Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant Wholesalers 0.21

29. Three Sets of Commodity Flow Tables 29 Annual county to county domestic flows by mode and commodity Need modes other than rail for mode choice analyses Four modes – truck, rail, water, and multimodal – and forty-three commodities 165 commodity flow tables produced of 172 possible Annual foreign region to county import flows by mode and commodity Annual county to foreign region export flows by mode and commodity 3143 counties

30. Rail Freight Modeling 30

31. Network Coding Elements 31

32. Model Components: Base Year and Future Commodity Flow Tables 32 Annual base year rail commodity flow tables built from Iowa Carload Waybill Sample Two digit STCC commodity code (max of 38 commodities) Compare against FAF 3 BEA economic areas, counties, points of entry, major generators within Iowa with rail access Four sets of tables defined by movement Base and future year commodity flow tables (all modes) built from FAF 3 Base: reallocated from FAF 3 zones to BEA areas/counties, etc. Future: IPF base tables using FAF 3 growth estimates

33. Model Components: Commodity Mode Shares 33 Estimation data set by commodity Observed flows Carload Waybill Sample FAF 3 commodity flow tables Cost to ship commodity by mode per ton per mile Network skimmed and scaled distances Application within state New commodity source or consumption location Added or removed intermodal facility

34. Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7): Rail Domestic Shipment Origins 34

35. Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7): Rail Domestic Shipment Destinations 35

36. Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7): Truck Domestic Shipment Destinations 36

37. Iowa Animal Feed (SCTG 4): Rail Domestic Shipment Destinations 37

38. Iowa Alcoholic Beverages (SCTG 8): Rail Domestic Shipment Destinations 38

39. Cereal Grain (SCTG 2) Shipments from O’Brien County (Tons 1000s) 39 Domestic Mode Iowa Balance US CanadaMexicoAmericasEuropeAfrica SW and Central Asia Eastern Asia SE Asia and Oceania Truck3903.8515.53.00.0 0.30.10.0 Rail94.0127.05.865.80.10.50.0 1.50.0 Water0.0134.10.02.91.50.64.60.49.90.0 Multi- Modal 7.696.80.02.10.30.00.50.06.60.1

40. O’Brien County Iowa Grain Flows and Ethyl Alcohol Manufacturing Employees 40

41. O’Brien County Iowa Grain Flows and Farm Product Wholesalers Employees 41

42. Rail Domestic Coal Tons 42

43. Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons 43

44. Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons 44

45. Screen Line Locations 45 Screen Line 1 Screen Line 2 Screen Line 3

46. Total Commodity (Tons 1000s) Screen Line Crossings 46 Screen Line 1Screen Line 2Screen Line 3 FAF3CWSFAF3CWSFAF3CWS East to West9,83412,2518,79114,735 West to East145,768132,670149,177128,946 North to South23,44038,103 South to North18,51813,291

47. Major Tasks Remaining 47 Repeat FAF3 disaggregation for 2040 Finalize commodity tables Rail network for assignment Clean up ORNL network outside Iowa Add waterways as pseudo rail mode Incorporate detailed Iowa rail network Rail access points inside detailed zones Mode choice model development and implementation Highway versus rail/highway versus rail Rail versus water Assignment procedure and export of truck portion of truck-rail flows Package final product in selected software

48. Applicability to States, MPOs and Decision Makers 48

49. Uses of the Iowa Rail Commodity Model 49 Summary statistics: Rail ton-miles by commodity within Iowa, base and future. What if Analysis: Test placement of a new truck-rail intermodal or mega- warehouse/distribution center. Test the viability of a new short line railroad. Rail ownership changes.

50. Transferability 50 May not be readily transferable to smaller scale geographies such as MPOs or corridors. Scale of MPO may preclude accuracy since the disaggregation process from county to TAZ depends on local employment or land use data. At state or regional scales, the iTRAM rail freight commodity concept is expected to be transferable Local knowledge is required in the adapting process (CWS) While very much a “work in progress”, the iTRAM rail freight model is expected to advance the practice of freight modeling nationwide.

51. Contact Information 51 Ron Eash Parsons Brinckerhoff 230 West Monroe Street Suite 900 Chicago IL 60606 eashrw@pbworld.com