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CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY August 26-31, 2006 N = 1,001 respondents margin of error: + 3.1%

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Presentation on theme: "CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY August 26-31, 2006 N = 1,001 respondents margin of error: + 3.1%"— Presentation transcript:

1 CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY August 26-31, 2006 N = 1,001 respondents margin of error: + 3.1%

2 RepublicanOther / Independent Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Democrat VOTER REGISTRATION DEMOGRAPHIC QC. Do state and county records show you to be registered as... 35% 22% 43%

3 INTEREST IN NOVEMBER ELECTIONS Q1. On a scale of zero to ten, with zero meaning NOT AT ALL INTERESTED and ten meaning EXTREMELY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in the November elections for Congress, Governor, the state legislature and county level races? Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Medium Interest (6-7) High Interest (8-9) Extreme Interest (10) Low interest (0-5) 52% GOP 42% DEM 40% IND 16% 15% 24% 45%

4 Q2. Which of the following best describes your likelihood of voting in this November’s general election? VOTING LIKIHOOD IN NOVEMBER Vote no matter what Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Vote if I think my vote will matter Probably will not vote Definitely will not vote Unsure / refused 91% GOP 85% DEM 78% IND 86% 7% 2% 4% 1%

5 DIRECTION OF THE UNITED STATES Q3. Do you think things in the United States are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Right directionUndecided / refusedWrong track Baselice & Associates Project# 0691 28% 64% 8% Strongly Somewhat RightWrong 52%GOP37% 24%IND68% 10%DEM85% 16% 13% 51% 12%

6 DIRECTION OF US AND PARTY REGISTRATION Direction of US Party Registration Combination of Direction of US & Party Registration IND / WT Unsure DEM / WT Other / independent Democrat Undecided / refused Wrong track Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 28%64% 22%43% GOP / RD Republican Right direction 8% 35% 18%13%5%15%4%37%8% GOP / WT IND / RD DEM / RD

7 DIRECTION OF CALIFORNIA Q4. Do you think things in California are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Right directionUndecided / refusedWrong track Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 39% 49% 11% Strongly Somewhat RightWrong 52%GOP40% 38%IND48% 30%DEM58% 25% 19% 31% 14%

8 Combination of Direction of US and California Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Direction of US Direction of California WT on Both RD on Both RD US / WT CA Mixed / Unsure WT US / RD CA Undecided / refused Wrong trackRight direction Undecided / refused Wrong trackRight direction DIRECTION OF US AND CALIFORNIA 28%8%64% 39%11%49% 18%8%15%19%39%

9 Combination of Direction of US and California Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 WT on Both RD on Both RD US / WT CA Mixed / Unsure WT US / RD CA DIRECTION OF US AND CALIFORNIA 18%8%15%19%39% Household Registration Right on Both Right on US/ Wrong on CA Mixed / Unsure Wrong on US / Right on CA Wrong on Both GOP34%17% 12%21% DEM5%2%15%23%54% IND15%7%19%18%41% Diff. Parties21%7%12%22%38%

10 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Other Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Q5. And in your own words, please tell me the most important issue the Governor and state legislature should be working on right now? 20% Governor / Government 4% Immigration / Security 36% Moral values 4% Social issues 9% Health care / Insurance 12% Environment 10% School Education / Finance 36% Budget & taxes 9% Jobs & economy 23%

11 NAME AWARENESS LEVELS (Ranked by Positive % plus Negative %) Know / Positive Know / Negative Never heard of Positive / Negative Ratio George W. Bush Arnold Schwarzenegger Diane Feinstein Phil Angelides Tom McClintock 0.7:1 1.4:1 1.6:1 0.8:1 2.7:1 Know / No opinion Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 GOP: 9 / 63 IND: 27 / 36 DEM: 53 / 21 John Garamendi 2.1:1 GOP: 26 / 68 IND: 55 / 33 DEM: 83 / 11 GOP: 60 / 8 IND: 27 / 9 DEM: 19 / 18 GOP: 24 / 25 IND: 27 / 12 DEM: 42 / 10 GOP: 82 / 14 IND: 52 / 41 DEM: 33 / 62 GOP: 76 / 20 IND: 33 / 63 DEM: 12 / 86 35% 33% 32% 57% 54% 39% 13% 16% 39% 36% 40% 58% 27% 19% 4% 5% 2% 25% 10% 3% <.5%

12 SCHWARZENEGGER JOB APPROVAL Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Arnold Schwarzenegger as Governor of California? Right directionUndecided / refusedWrong track Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 56% 40% 4% Strongly Somewhat ApproveDisapprove 81%GOP16% 54%IND39% 35%DEM60% 34% 21% 20% 22%

13 The Republican candidate Other parties / refused Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 The Democrat candidate US CONGRESS ELECTION PARTY CHOICE Q13. If the election for United State Congress in your area were held today and you had to make a choice, for which of the following candidates would you vote... 36% 18% 46%

14 Q14. If the next election for Governor of California were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which one of the following candidates would you vote? INITIAL GOVERNOR BALLOT Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican Phil Angelides, Democrat Undecided / refused Art Oliver, Libertarian Edward Noonan, American Independent Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Peter Miguel Camejo, Green Party Other 41% Non-Schwarzenegger Schwarzenegger Non- Schwarzenegger 88%GOP8% 48%IND41% 22%DEM69% 51% 36% 1% 2% 1% 8%

15 Q15. If the next election for Lieutenant Governor of California were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which one of the following candidates would you vote? INITIAL LT. GOVERNOR BALLOT Tim McClintock, Republican John Garamendi, Democrat Undecided / refused Lynnette Shaw, Libertarian Jim King, American Independent Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Donna Warren, Green Party Other 39% 43% 1% 13%

16 Part of the problem Other Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 Unsure / refuse Q17. Thinking about issues and the direction of California, do you view Arnold Schwarzenegger as.. VIEW OF SCHWARZENEGGER Part of the solution Some of both 50% 35% 7% 1% 7% SolutionProblem 79%GOP12% 44%IND36% 29%DEM54%

17 MORE / LESS LIKELY STATEMENTS More likely Less likely No Diff / Unsure Net Impact Q23.Since Arnold Schwarzenegger took office, more than 500,000 new jobs have been created and the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in 5 years. (Version Y: In 2005 alone, more than 350,000 jobs were created & California’s unemployment rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points). Q25.Since he was elected 3 years ago, Arnold Schwarzenegger helped shrink California's structural deficit by 85% from a projected $16.5 billion down to $2.5 billion this year. Q37.In two years under Arnold Schwarzenegger, $2.6 billion has helped build 540 new schools, accommodating more than 188,000 students. Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 63% 66% 15% 17% 15% 22% 17% 19% Y: +49% +49% +48% +50% X: +52%

18 MORE / LESS LIKELY STATEMENTS More likely Less likely No Diff / Unsure Net Impact Q34.Arnold Schwarzenegger has consistently stated that any immigration policy must put an emphasis on securing our nation's borders. Q33.Arnold Schwarzenegger has fought to protect families by leading the effort to maintain support for California's successful Three Strikes Law, & strengthening the Megan's Law database for families to access on the Internet & easily use as a tool to protect their children. +46% +45% Q38.One of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s top priorities is investing in students and schools, and Schwarzenegger’s Strategic Growth Plan is a landmark accomplishment that will yield benefits to education for generations to come. Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 62% 65% 66% 17% 18% 21% 22% 17% 13%

19 MORE / LESS LIKELY STATEMENTS More likely Less likely No Diff / Unsure Net Impact Q30.Arnold Schwarzenegger invested $6.5 million to build hydrogen fueling stations across the state. The cutting-edge network of hydrogen-fueling stations up and down the state will reduce green house gases and Californians' reliance on gasoline. Q24.Arnold Schwarzenegger’s first pledge when taking office was to undo the tripling of the car tax, and Schwarzenegger kept his promise and saved California's working families $4 billion per year. +43% +42% Q36.Arnold Schwarzenegger does not support the granting of amnesty because he believes illegal immigrants need to seek U.S. citizenship through the proper channels. Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 66% 63% 61% 23% 20% 19% 11% 17% 20%

20 MORE / LESS LIKELY STATEMENTS More likely Less likely No Diff / Unsure Net Impact Q27.As a result of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s workers' compensation reforms, both public and private sector employers are saving $15 billion a year. Q26. Arnold Schwarzenegger opposes new and higher taxes, and Schwarzenegger believes that it is fiscally healthier for people and businesses to use their money to invest in themselves, their businesses, and their communities. +34% +33% +31% Q28.Arnold Schwarzenegger is committed to furthering California's economic recovery (Ver Y: without rasing taxes and) with $37 billion in bonds to rebuild schools, highways and flood controls. Baselice & Associates Project# 06991 57% 60% 55% 25% 27% 21% 18% 14% 23% Y: +30% X: +33%


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