1. Stoepher Session: F-4 830AM-1000AM Thursday, May 19, 2011 John F. Henz, C.C.M & Mat Mampara, P.E. Dewberry – Denver CO Dewberry – Fairfax VA

2.  Family medical emergency  I apologize for my abscence

3.  Low-impact – minor inconvenience, small and local economic losses, etc.  Moderate-impact – minor damage, some social disruption, etc.  High-impact – damage, risks to health, broad economic impact, etc.  Extreme-impact – Catastrophic losses, deaths, injuries, major social disruption, etc. DEFINING THE IMPACT OF WEATHER, Patrick McCarthy, http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/program_414.htm

4.  Low-impact – minor inconvenience, small and local economic losses, etc.  Moderate-impact – minor damage, some social disruption, etc.  High-impact – damage, risks to health, broad economic impact, etc.  Extreme-impact – Catastrophic losses, deaths, injuries, major social disruption, etc. DEFINING THE IMPACT OF WEATHER, Patrick McCarthy, http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/program_414.htm

5.  1) People – individuals, families, workers, personal property, their work, lifestyles, health, etc.  2) Society – communities, healthcare, infrastructure, emergency response, etc.  3) Economy – transportation, recreation, tourism, agriculture, aviation, etc.  4) Environment – air, water, land

6. Deaths 1. Tri-State Tornado Outbreak: 747+ 2. Tupelo/Gainsville Outbreak: 436 3. Super Outbreak II: 341

12.  Early snow melt and rains over northern plains drove a head of flooding down the Mississippi.  Heavy rainfall preceded the tornado outbreak in the three days before April 27  During the tornado outbreak, numerous flash floods blocked roads, required evacuations and strained emergency services. Some examples:

18. 1974 vs. 2011 Climate similarities:  Record snows in upper plains, Mid-West and Eastern seaboard followed by rains & floods. Record tornado outbreak in April.  Third high likelihood: a hurricane strike along the Gulf Coast in August or September?

21. Lessons to be learned: Plan for concurrent severe weather events especially severe weather, tornadoes and flooding in the same 24-72 hour window. Expect lingering economic and utility impacts including diminished electrical and water utility services. What are the other impacts?

22.  1) Death/injury/stress/etc.  2) Property damage/destruction  3) Increased expenditures, changing plans  4) Inconvenience  5) Hazardous travel Morss, R.E., 2006: Defining “high-impact weather forecasts” in North America: Some ideas for discussion. Presentation, Workshop on North American THORPEX societal & economic research & applications, Boulder, CO.

23.  1) Loss of power, water, sewers, roadways, etc.  2) reduced emergency response  3) Compromising performance/access of hospitals, family services, etc.  4) Reduced access to necessities (food, fuel, pharmacies, etc.)  5) Closures of schools, daycares, transit, churches, etc. Morss, R.E., 2006: Defining “high-impact weather forecasts” in North America: Some ideas for discussion. Presentation, Workshop on North American THORPEX societal & economic research & applications, Boulder, CO.

24.  1) Reduced quality of product  2) Reduced quality of service  3) Delays  4) Increased costs  5) Loss of customers Morss, R.E., 2006: Defining “high-impact weather forecasts” in North America: Some ideas for discussion. Presentation, Workshop on North American THORPEX societal & economic research & applications, Boulder, CO.

26.  Complying with or exceeding NFIP floodplain management regulations.  Enforcing stringent building codes, flood-proofing requirements, seismic design standards and wind-bracing requirements for new construction or repairing existing buildings.  Adopting zoning ordinances that steer development away from areas subject to flooding, storm surge or coastal erosion.  Retrofitting public buildings to withstand hurricane-strength winds or ground shaking.  Acquiring damaged homes or businesses in flood-prone areas, relocating the structures, and returning the property to open space, wetlands or recreational uses.  Building community shelters and tornado safe rooms to help protect people in their homes, public buildings and schools in hurricane- and tornado-prone areas.

29.  Complying with or exceeding NFIP floodplain management regulations.  Enforcing stringent building codes, flood-proofing requirements, seismic design standards and wind-bracing requirements for new construction or repairing existing buildings.  Adopting zoning ordinances that steer development away from areas subject to flooding, storm surge or coastal erosion.  Retrofitting public buildings to withstand hurricane-strength winds or ground shaking.  Acquiring damaged homes or businesses in flood-prone areas, relocating the structures, and returning the property to open space, wetlands or recreational uses.  Building community shelters and tornado safe rooms to help protect people in their homes, public buildings and schools in hurricane- and tornado-prone areas. Is it enough or should we think “outside the box”?

30.  Include planning for the occurrence of several sequential or concurrent high impact events: snow melt, heavy rains, winds, flooding, severe weather, hurricanes, tornadoes.  Consider all the impacts: people, services, economy, utilities’ disruption, etc.  Expect the unexpected.

32. John F. Henz, CCM jhenz@dewberry.com Denver CO Dewberry Innovative Solutions for Science and Engineering "Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get” - Robert A. Heinlein ? Mat Mampara, PE mampara@dewberry.com Fairfax VA for