1. A comparison of the energetic output of Organic and Conventional farming systems and implications for resilience S. Norton 1, H. Moller 1, J. Benge 2 D. Lucock 3 and J. Manhire 3 1. Centre for the Study of Agriculture, Food, and Environment, University of Otago, PO box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand 2. Zespri, Mount Maunganui, New Zealand 3. The Agribusiness Group, Christchurch, New Zealand Correspondence: Solis.norton@otago.ac.nz

2. Introduction Western agriculture is continually intensifying –Worldwide, agriculture accounts for 10-12% of emissions –Increased by 17% between 1990 and 2005 –In the decade to 2002 fertiliser use up 160-240% in NZ (PCE, 2004) IPCC and PCE reports call for redesign of agriculture toward resilience and genuine sustainability Humans will number 9b by ~2043, up ~33% on today Aim: reconcile transformative resilience and growth?

3. Materials and methods ARGOS (www.argos.org.nz)www.argos.org.nz Otago, Lincoln, Agribusiness Group Longitudinal trans-disciplinary study (2002 - 2009) Environmental, social, & economic sustainability of NZ ag Management: Organic, Integrated (IM), Conventional Production system: kiwifruit, sheep & beef, dairy 105 participants in ‘clusters’

4. Materials and methods Kiwifruit 12 Organic Green, 12 Conventional Green, 12 IM Gold Production data for 2002/03 – 2007/08 Energetic output per hectare (GJ/canopy hectare) Estimate energy content of kiwifruit by literature and web review and bootstrapping methods Economic Orchard Surplus data for 2002/03 – 2006/07

5. Materials and methods Sheep and beef 12 Organic, 12 IM, 12 Conventional Energy in live weight leaving farm –Data for 2006/07 –Energy estimated at 8.5 MJ/kg live weight based on literature review –Per effective farm hectare –Includes lambs, older sheep, and beef Economic Farm Surplus data for 2001/02 – 2007/08

6. Dairy 12 Conventional and 12 Organic Transition for Organic producers was 2003/04 Energetic output in milk 1 kg of milksolids contains 38 MJ energy (Wells, 2001) Milk production data for 2003/04 – 2007/08 Reported as MJ/effective hectare Materials and methods

7. Statistical methods Distribution of each variable checked and log transformed if necessary Generalised Linear Mixed Effects models and MCMC methods for confidence intervals Control for variation between clusters (climatic and environmental effects of participant location) Season*management interaction for dairy to quantify seasonal productivity since transition Materials and methods

8. Kiwifruit ScaleGroupEstimate% of IM GreenP<0.05 Energy/ha (GJ)IM Green 56Reference Organic Green 4074* IM Gold 57102n/s Economic Surplus IM Green 1201Reference ($/canopy ha)Organic Green 4734394n/s IM Gold -151n/s Output on Organic orchards only 74% of IM Green Economic Surplus highly variable within orchard

9. Sheep & beef ScaleGroupEstimate% of Conventional P<0.05 Energy/ha (GJ)Conventional 34Reference Organic 2471n/s IM 41121n/s Economic surplus Conventional 58Reference ($/eff ha)Organic -27147n/s IM 4984n/s Organic farm output 71% of conventional, but not sig. different Economic Surplus was highly variable within farm

10. Dairy production ScaleGroupEstimate% of Conventional P<0.05 Energy/ha (GJ)Conventional 39Reference Transition organic 2974* Energetic output by Organic herds was 74% of the Conventional herds, significantly lower Trend of declining output per ha across Production types: KF=56, dairy=39, S&B=34

11. Annual dairy production

12. Discussion Energetic output differences were surprisingly consistent –74% for dairy and KF, 71% of S&B –Clearly significant differences in 2 of 3 production system Economic variability masks Organic (un?)profitability Diary trend following transition suggests management not farmers causes drop in output Next steps: cropping, fert, cull cows, inputs…

13. Discussion Our results and the literature –Organic dairy production 78-90% of Conv (Sundberg et al. (2009) –Organic feedlot beef live weight gain 84% of Conv and lower carcass weights (Fernandez et al. 1999) –Organic field tomatos inTunisia and capsicum in Himalayas both 60% of Conv (Riahi et al. 2009, Gopinath et al. 2009) –Organic cotton 66% of Conv, 6 yr study in California (Swezey et al. 2007) –Organic small scale wheat production 71% of Conv (Berardi 1978) –Organic apples 66% of Conv, 10yr study (Peck et al. 2006) Trend clearly evident (~25%) but not entirely consistent

14. Discussion Resilience in coming decades –Peak Oil –Peaks in other inputs eg phosphate –Regulatory impacts of climate change (IPCC) –Water constraints –Physical impacts of climate change –PCE Management shift toward organic end of spectrum Lower output per hectare as a result?

15. Discussion Resilience and implications for economic development –Would NZ export income decline? Lower output delivered to niche market premiums? Do we have a food crisis? Social responsibility? –World food production up by 30% by 2040 to keep pace with predicted population growth –Critical research and action is urgently required to safeguard global food supply and NZ’s economic prosperity in coming decades