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Forward Engagement Integrating Forecasting with Policymaking Spring 2004 Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University Either.

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Presentation on theme: "Forward Engagement Integrating Forecasting with Policymaking Spring 2004 Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University Either."— Presentation transcript:

1 Forward Engagement Integrating Forecasting with Policymaking Spring 2004 Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University Either the future is really murky Or, I must be going blind!

2 Section I: Introduction Presented by: Steve Cahall

3 Introduction A plan is nothing - planning is everything Why Think about the Future? Increasing rate of historical change.Increasing rate of historical change. Governments need to anticipate and respond early in order to effectively manage change.Governments need to anticipate and respond early in order to effectively manage change. Need to institutionalize forecasting as a regular part of policy making process.Need to institutionalize forecasting as a regular part of policy making process. What is Forward Engagement? Systematically thinking about the future.Systematically thinking about the future. Enabling public policy to engage the future sooner rather than later.Enabling public policy to engage the future sooner rather than later. Envision a desirable future and actively manage change.Envision a desirable future and actively manage change.

4 Introduction What are the stakes? Global leadership of the United StatesGlobal leadership of the United States Liberal democratic systemLiberal democratic system Survival of the International State SystemSurvival of the International State System Environmental SustainabilityEnvironmental Sustainability Societal StabilitySocietal Stability Survival of HumanitySurvival of Humanity

5 Introduction What have we done in Class? Build Institutions Identify FCIsGenerate Policy OptionsPractice Forecasting

6 Future Contingencies of Interest (FCIs) New developments in any human endeavor with profound implications for society. Magnitude and velocity necessitate action now to affect their occurrence and outcome.

7 Future Contingencies of Interest Economics High technology textiles High technology textiles Energy Energy Rejection of Capitalism by developing world Rejection of Capitalism by developing world India India China China Environment Environment Developing countries default on IMF loans Developing countries default on IMF loans Security Increased asymmetric warfare Increased asymmetric warfare Geopolitical shifts and alliances Geopolitical shifts and alliances Revolutionary weapons development Revolutionary weapons development Surveillance Surveillance Demographics Demographics State disintegration State disintegrationGovernance Internet governance Internet governance Water Scarcity Water Scarcity Mass privatization Mass privatization Space colonization Space colonization Regionalism Regionalism Disease Disease State disintegration State disintegration Security Nanotechnology Nanotechnology Genetics Genetics Environment Environment Energy Energy Disease Disease Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence

8 Nodes Dynamic points of intersection among FCIs. Developments in one area have ripple effects in other areas. Cause and effect operate in a positive feedback loop.

9 Key Nodal Players TechnologyEnergyDemographicsEnvironmentHealthMultipolarity North-South Divide

10 Section II Institutionalizing Forward Engagement Presented by: Melissa Nachatelo

11 Case for a Planning Institution Increasing Interconnectivity of developments in Human Affairs. Future Planning within government highly disaggregated. Lack of strong directional pull that imparts coherence to US policies concerning the future. Government Policy lags development rather than lead.

12 National Commission on Strategic Planning (CSP) CSP Mandate Identifying FCIs pertinent to U.S. interestsIdentifying FCIs pertinent to U.S. interests Coordinating government efforts to implement a national strategy for U.S. policy.Coordinating government efforts to implement a national strategy for U.S. policy. Provides input to executive and legislature to facilitate forward-leaning policy.Provides input to executive and legislature to facilitate forward-leaning policy.

13 National Commission on Strategic Planning Characteristics Centralized, Coordinative institution charged with long-term forecasting and policy planning.Centralized, Coordinative institution charged with long-term forecasting and policy planning. Joint Commission serves both the Executive and Legislative branches of government.Joint Commission serves both the Executive and Legislative branches of government. Plays an advisory role.Plays an advisory role. Composed of Political Appointees, executive staff and Subject Matter ExpertsComposed of Political Appointees, executive staff and Subject Matter Experts Life of the Commission automatically renewedLife of the Commission automatically renewed

14 Commissioners Executive Delegates Congressional Delegates FCI Generation and Analysis & Policy Options Think Tanks, NGOs, etc. Government Dept / Agencies External Relations INPUT / COORDINATION Congress White House / NSC $$$ National Commission on Strategic Planning

15 Key Functions of the CSP Identify FCIs. Robust understanding of the issues and interactions. Identify policy options. Provide coherence to overall U.S. Policy by working with Executive and the Legislative. Conduct periodic review of policy options and assess impact of policies. Participates in the executive budget and program review process.

16 Section III: CSP Structure Presented by: Sean Connell

17 CSP Organization Board of Commissioners Executive Staff Task Forces FCI Generation and Analysis & Policy Options To Think Tanks, NGOs, Govt Depts & Agencies, etc.

18 Board of Commissioners Nine Commissioners 5 appointed by President Only 3 from the same party At least 2 private citizens 2 appointed by Senate 2 appointed by House 3 year terms Staggered appointments Im the Big Boss Lady Chief Commissioner 8 Commissioner

19 Functions of the Board of Commissioners Chief Commissioner Appointed by the PresidentAppointed by the PresidentCommissioners Responsible for crystallizing issuesResponsible for crystallizing issues Conceptualizing policy options for congress and the executiveConceptualizing policy options for congress and the executive

20 Executive Staff Executive Director Deputy Director Director of External Relations General Counsel Govt. Agency Liaisons Congressional Liaisons

21 Functions of Executive Staff The Executive Director Reports to the Board of CommissionersReports to the Board of Commissioners Responsible for managerial, operational and administrative aspectsResponsible for managerial, operational and administrative aspects The Deputy Director Reports to the Executive DirectorReports to the Executive Director Represents the Commission in the budget and program review processRepresents the Commission in the budget and program review process Director of External Relations Reports to the Deputy DirectorReports to the Deputy Director Main point of contact for all Executive, Legislative and Government AgenciesMain point of contact for all Executive, Legislative and Government Agencies Public outreach coordinatorPublic outreach coordinator

22 Functions of Executive Staff (Cont.) General Counsel Advisor on Legal issuesAdvisor on Legal issues Government Agency Liaisons Works with the Director of External RelationsWorks with the Director of External Relations Liaise with Executive AgenciesLiaise with Executive Agencies Congressional Liaisons Reports to the Director of External RelationsReports to the Director of External Relations Liaise with Executive AgenciesLiaise with Executive Agencies

23 Task Forces Deputy Director Science & Tech T.F. Economic T.F Security T.F. Governance T.F. Public Health

24 Section IV: Case Study Presented by: Emily Waechter

25 A Case Study in Genetics Objective To trace an example through the Commissions policy-making process.To trace an example through the Commissions policy-making process. Step 1: Identify the Issues Uses roundtables, Delphi method, expert consultations to generate ideas.Uses roundtables, Delphi method, expert consultations to generate ideas. Perceives that developments in Genetic Engineering could have positive and negative consequences.Perceives that developments in Genetic Engineering could have positive and negative consequences.

26 Understanding the Issues Step 2: Research Generates a report based on input from think- tanks and research institutions.Generates a report based on input from think- tanks and research institutions. Considers socio-economic benefits and fallout of genetic engineering.Considers socio-economic benefits and fallout of genetic engineering. Report projects current trends, such as population.Report projects current trends, such as population. Also considers possible wild-card scenarios, like new forms of biological weapons.Also considers possible wild-card scenarios, like new forms of biological weapons. Allows commission to develop a full understanding of issues.Allows commission to develop a full understanding of issues.

27 Translating Issues into Policy Step 3: Developing Policy Options Science/Technology Task Force forms suggestions for addressing issues.Science/Technology Task Force forms suggestions for addressing issues. Genetic Engineering Policies could include: Complete ban on all cloningComplete ban on all cloning Increased federal funds for R&D in geneticsIncreased federal funds for R&D in genetics Constructing a regulatory agency to govern genetically-modified foods.Constructing a regulatory agency to govern genetically-modified foods. Increasing the retirement age if life expectancy increasesIncreasing the retirement age if life expectancy increases

28 Enhancing Policies Step 4: Infusion into the Policy Process Recommendations considered by Congress and President to develop legislation.Recommendations considered by Congress and President to develop legislation. Policies should sunset to promote periodic reviewPolicies should sunset to promote periodic review President can work to achieve international support for policies.President can work to achieve international support for policies. Step 5: Research Continues Commission monitors progress in genetic engineering.Commission monitors progress in genetic engineering. Has policy had the desired effect? Are new issues emerging?Has policy had the desired effect? Are new issues emerging? Continuous process of updating policies.Continuous process of updating policies.

29 Section V: Conclusion

30 Challenges Commission will require policymakers to buy into the benefits of long-range planning. There also must be some public support for the establishment and maintenance of the Commission. Long-range planning may be overshadowed by more immediate issues. CSP must remain non-partisan CSPs recommendations may create disdain in agencies who are having budgets or programs cut. Liable to be ignored because of the lack of enforcement capabilities. As a high-profile government entity, the Commission will create a reputation. the Commission will create a reputation.

31 Conclusions As the 9/11 Commission has shown, there is a growing need for coordination and planning across government agencies. A need exists not only to prevent possible threats, but to foster future opportunities. An opportunity exists now to create an institution that will think about the future.

32 Conclusions Our current system is focused on specialized, reactive policy development. The CSP is the best way to institutionalize long-range planning in a way that will be available – but not intrusive to – the President and the Congress. Both legislative and executiveBoth legislative and executive branches will have a stake in its branches will have a stake in its success. success.

33 Questions


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