1. ENSURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ENTERPRISES FUNCTIONING IN UNCERTAIN CONDITIONS ENSURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ENTERPRISES FUNCTIONING IN UNCERTAIN CONDITIONS Scientific supervisor: Candidate of Economic Sciences N.A. Voloshko. Student: Bobrysheva О.І. The theme of the master’s work

2. The Purpose of the diploma research is to develop the theoretical, methodical and practical actions in management decision making under uncertain conditions of market environment for ensuring the effectiveness of enterprises functioning. Tasks of the research: 1. To corroborate the relevance of the research concerning the effectiveness of enterprises functioning in uncertain conditions. 2. To conduct analysis of EVRAZ DMZ Petrovskogo activities and the major financial and economic parameters of its performance. 3.To analyze the possibility of bankruptcy for EVRAZ DMZ Petrovskogo 4. To develop the mathematical model for selecting optimal alternative of enterprise behavior in uncertainty of market environment. 5.To use the developed model for reducing the negative influence of the lost possibilities risk at EVRAZ DMZ Petrovskogo The Object of the investigation: the operation of EVRAZ DMZ Petrovskogo. The Subject of the investigation: theoretical and practical aspects of ensuring the effectiveness of EVRAZ DMZ Petrovskogo functioning in uncertain conditions. 2 steel is

3. 3 CountriesCompany namesEstablishedBought Capacity, million ton SteelRolled stock Russia Nizhnetagilskiy metallurgical plant 194019958,67,1 Russia Zahidnosybirskiy metallurgical plant 196419995,0 Russia Novokuzyetsriy metallurgical plant 193319991,52,0 Check RepVítkovice Steel183020051,0 ItalyPalini e Bertoli19632005-0,5 USAOregon Steel Mills192620061,22,3 USAClaymont Steel19882007-0,5 Ukraine Dnepropetrovskiy metallurgical plant Petrovskogo 188720071,22,2 Steel enterprises of EVRAZ Group

4. 4 steel is Geography of company’s product consumers

5. 5 steel is Dynamics of financial indicators at EVRAZ DMZ Petrovskogo Indicator 2011, thousand HUA 2012, thousand HUA 2013, thousand HUA Growth rate 2012 to 2011, % Growth rate 2013 to 2012, % 1. Balance41057864072982487746699,2119,75 2. Net income (revenue) from sales 285635536744604696392128,64127,81 3. Sales Profit-351609-700051-645596199,192,22 4. Total Profit (loss)-491459-778560-797333158,42102,41 5- Net profit (loss)-444449-630047-805645141,76127,87

6. 6 steel is Coefficient of bankruptcy possibility at EVRAZ DMZ Petrovskogo Indicator201120122013 Divergence (+,-) 2012 to 20112013 to 2012 Х1-0,295-0,399-0,379-0,104+0,02 Х2-0,108-0,155-0,165-0,047-0,01 Х3-0,12-0,19-0,163-0,07+0,027 Х40,610,250,296-0,36+0,046 Х50,6960,90,96+0,204+0,06 Z0,28-0,0070,17-0,287+0,177

7. steel is Model of choosing the optimal alternative of behaviour under conditions of uncertainty in the market environment 7 1. Choosing the dominant risk in operation of the enterprise among the range of financial and business risks 2. Forming multitude of market environment states and alternatives of enterprise behavior within the limits of indicated dominant risk. 3. Building the regression model of dependence of result criterion from factors which were used to form the states of market environment. 4. Building the matrix of alternative behaviour with the glance of market environment states. 5. Building the matrix of risks for each alternative of behavior. 6. Calculation of Wald criterion.. 7. Calculation of Savage criterion. 8. Calculation of the Routh–Hurwitz stability criterion 9. Choosing the optimal alternative of behavior which is the maximum among the other alternatives as for the Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion.

8. 8 steel is Indicators of the market environmentFeatures of indicators Debtors liabilities- 15 %=+ 15 % Current liabilities- 15 %=+ 15 % Average market rate for annual deposits in national currency 17 %20 %23 % Cost of fixed assets30 %20 %10 % Average market income for invest funds stocks 30 %50 %70 % Variants of features in the market environment

9. 9 steel is Output data for carrying out the regression analysis Parameter2010201120122013 Financial result (profit / loss), thousand HUA -425074-444449-630047-805645 Accounts receivable, thousand HUA 8745987238577530221605 Cash resources, thousand HUA 18716139115974427514 Fixed assets, thousand HUA 3339385296420126001212639746 Current liability, thousand HUA 3281084230985930559283556012 Inflation, % 9,14,6-0,20,5 Accounts payable, thousand HUA 557 129765 979926 083554 399 Production inventories, thousand HUA 204 608,0208 555,0290 797,0431 578,0 Bank loan, thousand HUA 1 617 000,00398 085,01 775 973,0

10. 10 steel is The model of financial result from the main activity before the taxation which was build according to the method of multiply regression analysis Y= 2445,85 - 0,61×X 1 + 0,46×X 2 + 0,22×X 3 -1,72×X 4 - 187,57×X 5 де X 1 - debtors’ liabilities; X 2 - cash; X 3 – fixed assets; X 4 – current liabilities; X 5 – inflation rate.

11. 11 steel is Alternative of behaviorProfit, thousand HUA Alternative S 1 977,7 Alternative S 2 2850,64 Alternative S 3 4269,525 Compromised decision according to the Routh-Hurwitz criterion

12. steel is