1. RTE Cereal Consumption Trends in the 90s What Sells Cereals and Where?
By Jim Eales

2. Goal
To examine the changes in cereal sales across regions of the US in the 90s by the nutritional content of the cereals.

3. Grocery Marketing Data 1990
Sales Area Marketing, Inc (SAMI), a former product-tracking services division of Arbitron.
Warehouse withdrawals
54 Markets made up of US counties
Covers 85% of US branded grocery sales
Indices measuring sales per household for 160 RTE Cereals

5. Grocery Marketing Data 1999
Nielsen Homescan data from 7195 households 6068 of which are in Nielsen “Scantrack” Markets.
Counties making up each Nielsen Scantrack Market are given in Market Scope. Fortunately, our library had the 1999 edition.
Each household’s purchases from various product “modules” including RTE Cereal can be used to calculate sales per household indices for each market.

7. Methods
Determined cereals which I could identify as common to both sets of data.
Turned out to be 77 cereals, that I could identify. There are probably others.

8. Problem
Changes in the sales indexes from 1990 to 1999 were too big to be believed.
Some of the Scantrack markets have only as little as 5 households in the Homescan sample.

9. Solution
I aggregated SAMI and Nielsen markets up to 8 super regions (California, West, E North Central, W. North Central, Mid South, Deep South, Northeast, and New York).
Minimum number of Nielsen households is now about 350 and the average is 700.

10. Map Color Schemes
I use the spectrum of colors for each map starting at least violet through indigo, blue, green, light green, yellow, orange, and red.
For example…

12. I then ranked cereals by ratings or nutrient content and identified the top (or bottom) 10 cereals.
I calculated an index of sales per household for these 10 cereals for SAMI and for Nielsen.
I then took the ratio (Nielsen/SAMI).
If the ratio is less (greater) than one for a region then sales per household declined (increased) between 1990 and 1999.

13. Consumer Reports Rated cereals based on nutrition (October, 1986)
I used the information on DASL to get ratings.
Ratings are weighted averages of: protein, fat, fiber, sugar, and sodium.

14. Highest Rated Cereals
Rating
Special K
50.1
Oat Bran
50.5
Grape Nuts
51.3
Nutri Grain
54.7
Heath Valley
55.4
Puffed Rice
60.9
Uncle Sam
62.2
Puffed Wheat
68.9
All Bran
69.8
Fiber One
87.9

16. Lowest Rated Cereals
Rating
Cap'n Crunch
20.2
Cap'n Crunch Christmas
Cap'n Crunch with Crunch Berries
20.7
Frankenberry
21.1
Cinnamon Toast
21.2
Boo Berry
21.3
Count Chocula
23.0
Cap'n Crunch Peanut Butter
23.1
Fruity Pebbles
23.2
Trix
23.8

18. Nutrients

19. Low Fat Cereals
Fat (g)
Health Valley
Cornflakes
0.1
Post Toasties
Sun Flakes
Frosted Flakes
0.15
Corn Pops
0.22
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice
0.27
Quaker Puffed Rice
Corn Chex
Double Chex

21. Low Sodium Cereals
Sodium (mg)
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice
1.5
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Wheat
Quaker Puffed Rice
Quaker Puffed Wheat
Health Valley 49
Uncle Sam 62
All Bran 77
Cracklin Oat Bran 86
Quaker Oat Bran
109
Corn Pops
116

23. High Fiber Cereals
Fiber (g)
Fiber One
14 (58%)
All Bran 10
Uncle Sam 6
Bran Flakes 5
Crunchy Bran
Skinner Raisin Bran 4
Post Raisin Bran
Kelloggs Raisin Bran
Multi Bran Chex
Cracklin Oat Bran

25. Low Sugar Cereals
Sugar (g)
Fiber One
Nutri Grain
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice
Quaker Puffed Rice
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Wheat
0.4
Quaker Puffed Wheat
Uncle Sam
0.5
Malt-O-Meal Toasty Os
1.0
Cheerios
1.3
Cornflakes
2.2

27. High Sugar Cereals
Sugar (g)
Apple Jacks 15
Froot Loops 14
Frankenberry
Count Chocula
Cocoa Puffs
Boo Berry
Corn Pops
Cocoa Crisp
Cap'n Crunch w Crunch Berries 13
Fruity Pebbles

29. Summary Cereal Characteristic Regions Increasing Highest-Lowest Ratios
Biggest
Increase
Decrease
Highest Rated 4
0.4
West
Mid South
Lowest Rated 5
1.17
California
E North Cent
Low Fat
0.58
E North Cent & West
Low Sodium 3
0.8
High Fiber
0.65
Low Sugar 7
0.47
High Sugar
1.26

30. Summary Low Sodium cereals increased in the most regions.
Lowest Rated & High Sugar had the biggest differences in ratios.
Regions with the biggest changes are: California, West, East North Central, and Mid South.

31. Conclusions
Nutrition doesn’t seem to be playing a big role in cereal consumption, probably because “bad” cereals are often healthier than the alternatives.
The difference between Low & High Sugar cereals is over stated because of added sugar.
Probably the biggest asset RTE cereal continues to enjoy is convenience.