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WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIES METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERU Jorge Chira.

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Presentation on theme: "WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIES METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERU Jorge Chira."— Presentation transcript:

1 WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIES METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERU Jorge Chira

2 CLIMATECLASIFICATION OF PERU

3 Marzo, 2009 Incorporación de la Gestión del Riesgo y/o Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Sector Agropecuario Watersheds TITICACA 0,5% disponibilidad agua 4,0% población m 3 /hab 62 ríos ATLÁNTICO 97,7% disponibilidad Agua 26,0% población m 3 /hab 564 ríos PACÍFICO 1,8 % disponibilidad agua 70 % de población m 3 /hab 381 ríos

4 Weather Events In Peru FloodingSnow Storm Strong Winds Mudslide

5 5 OBSERVACIONAL SYSTEM Red de Estaciones Automáticas SENAMHI Red de Estaciones Sinópticas CORPAC +/- 50 +/- 27

6 6 OBSERVACIONAL SYSTEM

7 MODELAREATEMPORAL RESOLUTIÓ N ESPACIAL RESOLUTIÓ N INITIAL CONDITIONS ADAPTACIONCOMPUTING REQUERIMENT S TIMEOPINION TECNICA SOBRE EL MODELO ETA – 22 km - Peru Regionalc/6 hours22 kmModelo GFSOperational Dell Presicio 470 Server 1 Year This Model works good with irregular topographies, specially with a large slope like peruvian higlands. I has an adjunsting to the convection scheme. ETA-32km – South América Regionalc/6 hours32 kmModelo GFSOperational Dell Presicio 470 Server 1 Year WRF-33kmRegionalc/6 hours33 kmModelo GFSTesting Sun Fire V40Z Server MIDDLE LAST YEAR WRF is a new generation mesoscale model prediction, designed to operational forecast and atmospheric research. It has the best of Eta, MM5 en others. WRF-22kmRegionalc/6 hours22 kmModelo GFSTesting Sun Fire V40Z Server WRF-NestedRegionalc/6 hours36 km/12 km36 km-Model GFS 12km-nested whit 36 km Testing Sun Fire V40Z Server BRAMS/nestedRegionalc/6 hours20km / 1.5 km CCM3 GFS Testing HP Proliant DL 380 G5 Server ENDING LAST YEAR BRAMS is a brazilian versión of RAMS model adapted to the tropics, it makes simulation of atmospheric circulations to several spatial scales.. CCM3GlobalMonthly2.8°TSM Reynolds NOAA Adaptado COMPAQ Alpha ES40 Server 8 YearsThis model support to stational forecast. However there are new versions, in this sense we are trying to implement the CAM model. NUMERICAL MODELS IN SENAMHI

8 8 WEATHER FORECASTING PROCESS

9

10 CURRENTLY FUTURE

11 WEATHER FORECASTING CLIMATE FORECAST FORECAST PRODUCTS CLIMATE FORECAST

12 12 WEATHER WARNINGS

13 HIDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS

14

15 PRIVATE FORECAST PRODUCTS CAMISEA EXPERIENCE

16 PRIVATE FORECAST PRODUCTS CAMISEA EXPERIENCE

17 DIGITISING PLUVIOGRAPHS AND OTHERS

18 SATELLITE IMAGERY

19 CLOUD CLASIFICATION SATELLITE PICTURES APLICATION

20 STORM CLASSIFICATION ALBEDO

21 Current Limitations in MHWS Meteorological and Hidrological Weather Service Low Budget in weather observing system Low Budget in weather observing system Few human resources for weather forecasting and climate prediction Few human resources for weather forecasting and climate prediction Limited automatization of meteorological process Limited automatization of meteorological process Limited use of NWP products and new technology Limited use of NWP products and new technology Numerical Models without data assimilation. Numerical Models without data assimilation. Need of Regional climate model for seasonal forecasts. Need of Regional climate model for seasonal forecasts. Difficult monitoring of weather systems specially at subsynoptic and mesoescale scale, strong interactions with extratropics, teleconnections Difficult monitoring of weather systems specially at subsynoptic and mesoescale scale, strong interactions with extratropics, teleconnections Forecasts and early warnings highly uncertain and difficult verification Forecasts and early warnings highly uncertain and difficult verification Limited users of forecasts and Weather Warnings Limited users of forecasts and Weather Warnings

22 Needs Training in remote sensing Training in remote sensing Training in numerical data assimilation Training in numerical data assimilation Geonetcast Implementation for two users: Stakeholders and NWS Geonetcast Implementation for two users: Stakeholders and NWS Increased band of Geonetcast to upload grib data of numerical models Increased band of Geonetcast to upload grib data of numerical models Advices for improve observational, processing and telecomunication systems Advices for improve observational, processing and telecomunication systems

23 THANK YOU! ENJOY PERU


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