1. www.swslim.org.uk Future Skills Needs Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM

2. www.swslim.org.uk Many jobs that existed in the past have vanished… or nearly vanished. Labour markets change…

3. www.swslim.org.uk Male occupations around Bradford in 1714-1720 and 1775 - 1781 Structural Change… …is not new. Source: Babtism Records, cited by Elvira Wilmott, The Bradford Antiquary

4. www.swslim.org.uk Structural Change Source: Babtism Records, cited by Elvira Wilmott, The Bradford Antiquary

5. www.swslim.org.uk The pace of change today remains fast. The fastest growing occupations are those that need Level 4 and Level 3 qualifications. Source: Labour Force Survey, analysed by UKCES in Skills for Jobs: Today and Tomorrow. Growing Occupations

6. www.swslim.org.uk Assembly jobs – done in china Typists – we do our own Telephonists – automated out…. … and so on. But, they are mainly jobs done by people w/ low levels of qualifications. Young people will need qualifications / skills to compete in the labour market. Declining Occupations

7. www.swslim.org.uk It’s sort of obvious...

8. www.swslim.org.uk Looking forwards What do (or can) we know about the future?

9. www.swslim.org.uk Short-term Bit like the past, with some predictable developments & potential for ‘shocks’. Workforce Model for labour at Hinkley Point C

10. www.swslim.org.uk Employment Projections Projected growth in higher skilled occupations… as well as in Customer Service and Caring occupations. Declining employment in some skilled trades, administrative & secretarial occupations. Employment Growth & Projected Growth, ‘000 jobs, Devon, LEFM

11. www.swslim.org.uk Post-industrial society The economy undergoes a transition from the production of goods to the provision of services. Knowledge becomes a valued form of capital, see human capital. Producing ideas is the main way to grow the economy. Globalization & automation leads to a decline in the prevalence and value of blue-collar & manual labour and a rise in the prevalence and value of professional workers (e.g. scientists, creative-industry professionals, and IT professionals)

12. www.swslim.org.uk Escalator or Hourglass? Source: ONS / The Guardian “… the 21 st century still demands quite a lot of people who can flip burgers, collect refuse, clean your house, mind your kids, wait table, care for the sick and elderly, clean your office, guard your buildings/cars/airports, serve behind the counter or at checkout in stores, or pull your pint”. Ewart Keep, University of Oxford

13. www.swslim.org.uk Futurist thinking Driverless Transport Disappearing Jobs Taxi and limo drivers, gone. Bus drivers & Truck drivers, gone. Truck drivers, gone. Petrol stations, parking lots, traffic police / wardens, Take-awaydelivery drivers, gone. Mail delivery drivers, gone. New Jobs Delivery dispatchers Traffic monitoring systems managers Automated traffic designers, architects, and engineers Driverless “ride experience” people. Driverless operating system engineers. Emergency crews for when things go wrong

14. www.swslim.org.uk Futurist thinking Jobs that will exist in 2030 and beyond - Futurist Thomas Sprey Tree-Jackers Plant and tree alteration specialists, who manipulate growth patterns, create grow-to-fit wood products, personalized fruit etc Plant Psychologists An entire profession dedicated to undo the damage caused by the Tree-Jackers Amnesia Surgeons Doctors who are skilled in removing bad memories or destructive behaviour. Lip Designers If you could have any lips in the world, what would they look like? Plant Educators An intelligent plant will be capable of re-engineering itself to meet the demands of tomorrow’s marketplace.

15. www.swslim.org.uk Where are we now?

16. www.swslim.org.uk Nothing in common ‘The career aspirations of teenagers at all ages can be said to have nothing in common with the projected demand for labour in the UK between 2010 and 2020’. 52% of teenagers aged 13 to 16 aspired to work in three of 25 possible occupational areas. This falls to 46% for young people age 17-18. This misalignment of ambitions and employment prospects makes it much less likely that they will experience smooth school-to-work transitions. Q: “What would to be when you grow up?” A: “I don’t mind, as long as I get to be on Strictly”.

17. www.swslim.org.uk Source: ONS Population Estimates Career aspirations of young people aged 13-14 mapped against projected labour market demand (2010-2020) – Nothing in Common, Mann et al, UKCES, 2013.

18. www.swslim.org.uk Participation aged 16-18 Young people are staying in education (mainly full time education) longer and longer, and entering the labour market later

19. www.swslim.org.uk Qualifications Source: ONS Large increase in the number of people qualified to Level 4, despite fees % working age population qualified to Level 4+

20. www.swslim.org.uk Wages by Qualification Source: APS / ONS Ave hourly earnings by qualification Level, UK, 2011 Returns to higher level qualifications are much higher in the UK than in many other European Countries.

21. www.swslim.org.uk Population changes too… Source: ONS Population Estimates South West England population profile, 2013

22. www.swslim.org.uk Questions? Given how difficult the future is to predict and that the young people leaving education today will still be in work until 2060 or so… … how appropriate is it to prepare them for today’s labour market? …making the transition from education / youth into work is fraught with difficulty, should it be our focus? … to what extent will young peoples’ aspirations today create the labour market / jobs of tomorrow? … is it fairest to focus on core theoretical underpinning knowledge that is transferable to many forms of employment?

23. www.swslim.org.uk Thank you Ben Neild b.neild@exeter.ac.uk 01392 264823 b.neild@exeter.ac.uk