1. Up the (Main)stream without a paddle? The Irish Labour Party’s Electoral Future

2. Futurology?  We don’t offer a philosophical or theoretical reflection on how Labour might develop  We draw on opinion poll evidence and from examples of other periods in the party’s history, particularly 1987-1992, which saw the party make comparable gains

3. Fig. 1 2011 versus 2007 results

4. Labour in 2011 – Major breakthrough?  An ‘earthquake election’? (Gallagher and Marsh, 2011; Hutcheson, 2011).  In 2011, Labour became the second largest party in the state for the first time  Highest share of vote since 1922  Largest number of seats ever (37)

5. How did this happen?  Public confidence in party leader, Eamon Gilmore  Prevention and management of factionalism within the party  More centralised organisation control over candidate selection, (see also Reidy, 2011), electoral literature etc. ‘Party pledge’.  Domination of leftist rivals, e.g. Sinn Féin

6. What kind of party is Labour?  Major, minor, both – or neither?  Major party – +15% of vote (Mair, 1987)  O’Malley (2010) – <25% midpoint number of seats as the two largest parties  Relevance – coalition potential (Sartori, 1976)  Does Labour require a new category?

7. A ‘mainstream’ party?  What is a mainstream party?  Often close to major party; potential party of government; not ideologically constrained from coalition participation  More influence than a mass party of left or right, if less numerical support  Regularly poll more than its overall average in terms of %FPVs.

8. Labour’s average vote share 1923-2011

9. Labour: a proximal mainstream party?  McDaid and Rekawek (2010; 2012)  Coalition potential  Occasional party of government  Different from a relevant minor party, which need only be in government once  Consistently poll, on average, 10 per cent or more  Labour’s overall average is 11.25%, 1923-2011

10. Did Labour break the mould in 2011?  Has Labour now become a ‘major’ player in the Irish party system?  Will the 2011 election result in a re- alignment of the party system?

11. Second party strength in Ireland

12. Frankfurt’s way (and Albert’s way)  Previous episodes from the party’s history are instructive  During the 1987-92 period, Dick Spring made a name for the party by attacking Fianna Fáil  Yet, in 1992, it decided to coalesce with it

13. Electoral backlash  “[W]e [ILP] didn’t succeed at all … We did the opposite of what people wanted us to do. People wanted us to deal with Fianna Fáil and get rid of them, put them in their place, and … we join them! And when you join those people, the people who have given you that vote were aghast.” (Interview with Joe Costello, TD)

14. Gilmore’s pre-election comments  “If the Taoiseach's Government knew Anglo-Irish Bank was insolvent and he asked the Irish taxpayer to bail it out and to pay the cost we are now paying for it, that was and is economic treason”.  “It’s Frankfurt’s way or Labour’s way.”

15. Gilmore’s post election comments  “Those who make the call for not repaying [Anglo-Irish uninsured bondholders] have never spelled out what those consequences are”. (Irish Times, 24 Jan. 2012)  "It's a bit of a sickener to have to pay it, there is no doubt about that.” (Breakingnews.ie, 25 Jan, 2012)

16. Party member’s views  “Fine Gael and Labour will be the two major parties going forward, certainly for the next five to ten years until things improve.” (Interview with Ray Kavanagh, National Executive)  Coalescing with Fine Gael “reinforces the previous pattern” and prevents the sought after left-right alignment. (Interview with Patrick Nulty, TD)

17. Effects  Gilmore’s popularity sliding – 23% (Oct. 2012). Enda Kenny/Gerry Adams most popular leaders  Poorer organisational coherence – Shortall resignation, ‘lack of support’, etc.  Internal divisions manifesting: Broughan, Nulty, Penrose, Shortall – although still no formal group like Labour Left, Militant, etc.  Loss of dominance of the Irish left – Sinn Féin now the leading voice

18. A pre-election backlash? (Red C Sunday Business Post poll data)

19. And the most recent poll …

20. Stuck in the mainstream?  Fine Gael appear safe as the largest party  Fianna Fáil is holding up well (by some measures the 2 nd party)  Sinn Féin are the big winners so far  Labour could be the ‘biggest loser’  Evidence suggests a perpetuation of the cycle, and return to ‘proximal mainstream’ status in the years ahead

21. Contact details  Shaun McDaid, University of Huddersfield – S.McDaid@hud.ac.ukS.McDaid@hud.ac.uk  Kacper Rekawek, Polish Institute of International Affairs – rekawek@pism.plrekawek@pism.pl