1. Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
Key Issue 2-4
Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

2. Thomas Malthus Thomas Malthus (1766–1834)
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
Population increases geometrically
Food production increases arithmetically
Eventually, population will exceed the capability to produces the food to support it

3. Malthus’ Theory

4. Malthus’ theory
Globally, Malthus’s theory has not been supported during the past 50 years.
World food production has increased faster than the NIR.
Food production increased more rapidly than predicted
Hunger and famine are distribution problems and not production problems.
Population did not quadruple.
Cultural, economic, and technological change has slowed population growth.
Population is increasing a slower rate

5. Food & Population, 1950-2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends

6. Neo-Malthusians Contemporary Malthus supporters observe that today:
Relatively poor countries have experienced the most rapid population growth.
Little wealth in these countries to support growth
World population growth is outstripping many global resources.
Will result in war and other civil violence

7. Malthus’ Critics Malthus’ Critics
Argue a larger population could stimulate economic growth, food production, and technological development.
Unjust social practices are to blame, not lack of resources.
Some argue that high population growth leads to greater political and economic power.

8. Thomas Malthus Neo-Malthusians Critics of Malthus
Population is growing faster than Earth’s food supply
Population increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically
Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries
World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources
Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources
Large populations stimulate economic growth
Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions

9. Reasons for declining birth rates
What are the two ways to bring birth rates down?
Lower birth rates
Higher death rates
What two strategies have proven successful to lower birth rates?
Reliance on economic development
Distribution of contraceptives

10. Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005

11. Lowering birth rates through education and health care
Improvement of economic conditions is key.
Wealthier communities have more to spend on education and health care.
More educated women have greater economic control over their lives.
More educated women better understand their reproductive rights, make more informed choices, and select more effective contraception.
Better health care leads to lower IMRs.
Lower IMRs lead to higher likelihood of contraception use.

12. Lowering birth rates through contraception
Rapidly, cheaply, and widely distributed contraception
A more rapid method than economic development
Family-planning programs can be used as well.

13. FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH
World population will still increase, but at a slower rate than in the past and fertility is the primary determinant.
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14. Problematic regions Bangladesh Low levels of wealth and literacy
Africa
Economics, religion, and low levels of education limit contraception use.
Southwestern Asia
Low status of women limits contraception use.
Women have less access to education and hold fewer legal rights as compared to men.
Large families—male symbol of virility

15. Cornucopians 1980s American Economists believe Boserup Thesis –
Population growth is a stimulus to development
Technology has increased the carrying capacity
Boserup Thesis –
Population increases necessitate increased inputs of labor and technology to compensate for reduced yields

16. Anti-Natalist vs Pro-Natalist
Government policy that prevents an increase in child births
Malthus & Neo-Malthusians
Encourage family planning
Overpopulation is a problem
Government policy that enforces/encourages child birth through rewards/incentives
Cornucopians & Boserup
Human ingenuity & technology will increase carrying capacity
Overpopulation is not a problem

17. Use of Family Planning

18. FAMILY PLANNING METHODS
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19. Government Population Policies
Expansive Population Policies
- Encourages population growth.
Eugenic Population Policies
- Favors one racial or cultural sector over others.
Restrictive Population Policies
- range from toleration of unapproved birth control to outright prohibition of large families.

20. Which is the bigger problem?
It depends on the country?

21. Restrictive Policies (List a few)
Aka Anti-natalists – encourage family planning (birth control)
China (starting 1971)
Bolivia
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Singapore
Malaysia
Bangladesh – TFR: – 6, 2000 – 2.9
Thailand – TFR: – 6.5, 2005 – 1.7

22. Expansive Policies – List a Few
Also known as pro-natalists – encourage large families
Nazi Germany
Soviet Union
Mao’s China
Ceausescu’s Romania
People’s Republic of Albania
Bulgaria
Mongolia
Some countries awarding medals for Mothers of 4, or 5, or 10, etc.

23. Expansive Policies Russia – Sweden –
Sept. 12 Conception Day in Ulyanovsk Province
Sweden –
1980s – couples with small children received tax incentives, job leaves, work flexibility for 8 years
Early 1990s – mini baby boom
However, in mid-1990s the economy slowed and so did the baby boom

24. Expansive Population Policies
USSR - Starting on July 8, 1944 the government of the
U.S.S.R. began awarding medals to women in order
to encourage a high fertility rate.

25. Motherhood Medal 2nd Class
5 children 8,000,000 awarded

26. Motherhood Medal 1st Class
6 children ,000,000 awarded

27. Order of Maternal Glory 3rd Class
7 children ,000,000 awarded

28. Order of Maternal Glory 2nd Class
8 children ,000,000 awarded

29. Order of Maternal Glory 1st Class
9 children ,000 awarded

30. Order Mother Heroine
10 children ,000 awarded

31. Eugenics Population Control
Eugenics: "applied science or the bio-social movement which advocates the use of practices aimed at improving the genetic composition of a population”
Germany - focused on "Aryanizing" German blood, preventing marriage or any sexual contact between Christians and Jews & formalized the killing of those deemed "lives unworthy of living," targeting first children and later adults with mental and/or physical disabilities
United States- Practiced involuntary sterilization of those who were “genetically inferior” (genetic illnesses, insanity, etc) and restricted “White” people from marrying or having children with “Non-White” people.
India's Hindu extremist party, the VHP, has asked the government to enforce family planning measures on the Muslim population, saying its rapid increase is "detrimental" to Hindus in the country.
In the 1970s and 1980s the government of Czechoslovakia sponsored a policy that strove to reduce the nation's Romani population through involuntary sterilization

32. Restrictive Population Policies
India and China
These two countries comprise more than one-third of the world’s population.
India’s population policies
Beginning in 1971, citizens paid to be sterilized
Now a stronger emphasis on education as family planning
Limited success
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33. India
Wait until the
1st child is 3
before having
your 2nd

34. India and China
China’s population policies
Beginning in 1980, one-child policy
Financial and other incentives to limit family size
Greater prosperity in China has led to a relaxation of one-child policy
Now a stronger emphasis on education as family planning
Family-planning fees

35. China’s Population Programs
Later, Longer, Fewer (wan xi shao)
get married later in life (mid - late twenties)
wait longer for first baby and in between babies have fewer, 2 in urban areas & 3 in rural areas
One Child Policy 1979
rewards start once 1 child contract is signed
Rewards
free medical care
free daycare and schooling
guaranteed job for child
bonuses for parents
extra maternity leave
better housing
bigger old age pension
Penalties
must repay financial benefits
educational, medical benefits, & guaranteed jobs are withdrawn
parents’ wages reduced

36. 80,000 Family Planning Workers
source:
Practice birth control for the revolution

37. Peer pressure is also effectively used to keep
birth rates down

38. Millions of dollars have been spent on
education and on advertizing.

40. Carry out family planning Implement the basic national policy
source:
Carry out family planning
Implement the basic national policy

41. Clever and pretty healthy and lovely
source:

42. source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html

43. source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html

44. Do a good job in family planning to promote economic development
source:
Do a good job in family planning to promote economic development

46. The Science of Family Planning
source:

47. How many missing girls are there in the under 20 categories?

48. Epidemiological Transition

50. Four Stages of Epidemiological Transition
Pandemic = Disease that occurs over a wide geographic area & affects a very high number of the population

51. Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
Epidemiologic Transition
Medical researches have identified an epidemiologic transition that focuses on distinct health threats in each stage of the demographic transition.
Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine (High CDR)
Principal cause of death: infectious and parasitic diseases
Ex. black plague (bubonic plague)
Epidemiology is the branch of medical science concerned with the incidents, distribution, and control of diseases that are prevalent among the population at a special time and are produced by some special causes not generally present in the affected locality.

52. Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 2: Receding Pandemic (Rapidly Declining CDR)
Pandemic is a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the population.
Factors that reduced spread of disease, during the industrial revolution
Improved sanitation
Improved nutrition
Improved medicine
Famous cholera pandemic in London in mid nineteenth century.

54. SIR JOHN SNOW’S CHOLERA MAP In 1854, Dr
SIR JOHN SNOW’S CHOLERA MAP In 1854, Dr. John Snow mapped the distribution of cholera victims and water pumps to prove that the cause of the infection was contamination of the pump near the corner of Broad and Lexington streets.
FIGURE 2-32 SIR JOHN SNOW’S CHOLERA MAP In 1854, Dr. John Snow mapped the distribution of cholera victims and water pumps to prove that the cause of the infection was contamination of the pump near the corner of Broad and Lexington streets.

55. Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 3: Degenerative Diseases (Moderately Declining CDR)
Characterized by…
Decrease in deaths from infectious diseases.
Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging.
Cardiovascular diseases
Cancer
Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases (Low but Increasing CDR)
Deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases and cancer delayed because of modern medicine treatments.

56. MALE CANCER Cancer is an example of a cause of death for men that is higher in developed countries than in developing ones.
FIGURE2-33 MALE CANCER Cancer is an example of a cause of death for men that is higher in developed countries than in developing ones.

57. OBESITY - Obesity is a health problem in the United States and in Southwest Asia.
FIGURE 2-34 OBESITY Obesity is a health problem in the United States and in Southwest Asia.

58. Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
Infectious Diseases
Reasons for Possible Stage 5
Evolution
Infectious disease microbes evolve and establish a resistance to drugs and insecticides.
Antibiotics and genetic engineering contributes to the emergence of new strains of viruses and bacteria.
Poverty
Infectious diseases are more prevalent in poor areas because of presence of unsanitary conditions and inability to afford drugs needed for treatment.
Increased Connections
Advancements in modes of transportation, especially air travel, makes it easier for an individual infected in one country to be in another country before exhibiting symptoms.
Some medical analysts argue that the world is moving into stage five of the epidemiologic transition, brought about by a reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases.

60. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ARRIVALS AT U. S
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ARRIVALS AT U.S. AIRPORTS 2011 Because AIDS arrived in the United States primarily through air travelers, the pattern of diffusion of AIDS in Figure 2-37 closely matches the distribution of international air passenger arrivals.
FIGURE 2-38 INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ARRIVALS AT U.S. AIRPORTS 2011 Because AIDS arrived in the United States primarily through air travelers, the pattern of diffusion of AIDS in Figure 2-37 closely matches the distribution of international air passenger arrivals.

61. Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
Health Care
Health conditions vary around the world, primarily, because countries possess different resources to care for people who are sick.
Expenditures on Health Care
More than 15 percent of total government expenditures in Europe and North America.
Less than 5 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

62. Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
Health Care
Health Care Systems
Developed Countries
Public service available at little or no cost.
Government pays more than 70 percent of health-care costs in most European countries, and private individuals pay about 30 percent of the expense.
Developing Countries
Private individuals must pay more than half of the cost of health care.
U.S. is an exception to these generalizations, because private individuals are required to pay about 55 percent of health care costs making it more closely resemble a developing country, in regards to health care.

63. H1N1 (Swine Flu) Outbreak

64. H1N1 (Swine Flu) Outbreak

65. SARS Outbreak

66. SARS Outbreak

67. HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2006

68. World Wide HIV Prevalence

69. Worldwide HIV/AIDS Deaths

70. HIV (AIDS) Epidemic

71. HIV (AIDS) Epidemic

72. HIV (AIDS) Epidemic

73. HIV (AIDS) Epidemic

74. Diseases Sources of diseases Spread of diseases
Infectious diseases: Spread from person to person
Vectored: Spread through intermediary, such as an insect
Nonvectored: Spread directly from person to person
Chronic or degenerative diseases: Diseases of old age
Genetic or inherited diseases: Passed through genes
Spread of diseases
Endemic: Present in small area
Epidemic: Spreads over large region
Pandemic: Spreads worldwide

75. Causes of Death in the United States
Chronic diseases reflecting longer
life expectances
Decline in deaths
from infectious diseases

76. HIV/AIDS HIV – Human immunodeficiency Virus
AIDS – Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Originated in Africa
MOST LETHAL pandemic in recent years
Became worldwide concern in 1980s (but probably present in Africa before then)
Infection long before symptoms appear
Social stigma
Many deaths among young adults
Effect of AIDS on population structure
of South Africa

77. AIDS Impact on Children
Drawing by a Pokot
boy in Kenya, showing
him working in the fields
and caring for cattle to assist sick family
members
Sparrow Rainbow Village, a
hospice for child AIDS patients
near Johannesburg, South
Africa

78. Provisions of Health Care
LDC’s
Spend less on health care
Lack of immunizations
<5% total govt. expenditures
S. Asia & Sub-Saharan Africa
MDC’s
Spend more on health care
Use part of wealth to aid the sick
15% total govt. expenditures
Europe & N. America

79. Medical Expenditures
The high expenditure on health care in developed countries is reflected in medical facilities
However, the United States is an exception to the pattern regarding medical services.
In the USA, individuals are required to pay an average of 55% of health care
This resembles the pattern in developing countries

80. Medical Expenditures
Developed countries are hard pressed to maintain their current levels of public assistance with medical services because in the past economic growth allowed govt’s to finance medical programs easily. However, as economic growth has slowed, the % of people needing medical assistance has increased. Therefore, govt’s have faced a choice between reducing benefits and raising taxes to pay for them.

81. Physicians per 10,000 People Highest Regions Lowest Regions
The number of hospital beds and the number of physicians per 10,000 people is a measurement of a country’s medical services
Hospital Beds per 10,000 People
Physicians per 10,000 People
Highest Regions
50 hospital beds per 10,000 people
Most of Europe
Lowest Regions
20 hospital beds for 10,000 people
Sub-Saharan Africa, S. Asia & SW Asia
Highest Regions
> 30 physicians per 10,000 people
Europe
Lowest Regions
< 5 physicians per 10,000
Sub-Saharan Africa