1. MDSS Operational Issues 2003 MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Tuesday, June 17, 2003 Des Moines, Iowa Andy Stern Mitretek Systems FHWA Weather Team

2. Discussion Points Conveying Forecast Confidence Tactical versus Strategic Planning Considerations In the heat of battle, how do we collect all of that data?

3. Conveying Forecast Confidence Forecasters have relatively few ways to express their confidence to the users: 1.Through a forecast: Considerable cloudiness with a 50% chance of freezing rain 2.Through a written forecast discussion (often written in weather-eze): Forecast models are diverging hence will opt for persistence… 3. Through a phone call 4. Via the media (with pictures to back up the text)

4. Conveying Forecast Confidence For many years, forecasters have provided “deterministic” forecasts – or one single expression of what is predicted: A chance of light rain and drizzle. Chance of measurable rain 30%. A 50% chance of scattered showers…mainly after noon. Periods of snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow chance 90%. A wintry mix of freezing rain sleet and snow likely. Chance of precipitation 60%. A deterministic forecast was used at the beginning of the MDSS Winter Demo

5. During the second half of the demonstration, “probabilistic” forecasts were used. To convey what went into the final precipitation forecast, the probabilities were “uncovered” and shared with the maintenance supervisors. So now, they could see the hourly… Forecast temperature and humidity Probability of rain, snow and ice Resultant probability of precipitation and precipitation type Precipitation rate and accumulation Conveying Forecast Confidence

6. Updated Probabilistic MDSS Output Screen

7. Tactical versus Strategic Planning Considerations Data Collection Issues &

8. Stakeholder Meeting #1: Responses to Uncertainty

9. Awareness, Monitoring, Detection Aware % T Monitor T Detect T Time Before Event 96 0724824 Aware Monitor Detect 29 hrs. 49 hrs.3.8 hrs. Confidence 18-80% (avg. 46%)

10. The MDSS: A Tactical or Strategic planning tool? The MDSS was designed as a tool for the Operational Scale as a planning tool – up until around the start of the weather event. In order to use it during an event, the actual treatments performed would have to be entered into the system in real- time. If the system doesn’t know what treatment was performed, then there is no way for it to predict the future.

11. In a perfect world, actual treatments would automatically be entered into the system from the trucks (concept vehicles). For the immediate future, the only practical way to handle this is for the supervisors to have a “reset” button for each route (or group of routes) after the event is finished (and roads are cleared of snow and chemicals). This will allow the system to be reset prior to the onset of the next event. The 2003 demo system also did not have several other warning scale features: No forward error correction Lack of real-time precipitation observations No real-time display of RWIS No built-in radar display The MDSS: A Tactical or Strategic planning tool?

12. Tactical Support and Data Collection Tactical Tools could include Radar displays navigated to roadways Snow gauge data (NCAR snow gauge or enhanced NWS heated weighing gauge) Nowcasting algorithms The MDSS automatically collects and archives surface observations (ASOS and RWIS), radar, NWS bulletins and summaries. During the demo, we used a 2-sided form in an attempt to collect data from both the drivers and the supervisors. Mixed success – procedures not consistent between garages – difficult to keep up with during events. FORMS

13. Comments from Garage Supervisors: There was some confusion on how to complete the forms, even after training Some of the garages had supervisory personnel fill out the forms (rather than the drivers). When the weather deteriorated, assistance was needed in completing the forms. All felt that GPS tracking for the plows would benefit the program to add accuracy to tracking chemical applications, etc The number of roadway segments on the forms should be reduced since the treatments on adjoining segments were often the same. Data Collection Verification Forms FORMS Danger! Forms Ahead Forms should be a HAZMAT!!! $250 Fine for Using Forms

14. Data Verification Form – Side 1, Ames Garage

15. Looking for a Solution We are looking for the best way to collect and archive real- time data from both the supervisor and the driver. We will explore better manpower utilization of visiting lab, IADOT HQ, and CTRE personnel during events GPS Equipped/Concept Vehicle could collect route locations, times, application amounts and type and blade position. - but that still leaves visual measurements of the state of the road, precipitation type, accumulation, liquid equivalent, frost occurrence, traffic volume/speed, drifting, etc.